Slabnomics

 I analyzed every trade I made over 10 months in one of my buckets:

311 sales, $55,000 deployed and fed it all into Claude AI to find patterns. 

The result was a complete rebuild of how I think about sports card portfolio construction. 

Using meta-tags to track performance across player tier, set quality, rarity, and card type, I discovered that sets really do matter, and GOATs matter most in soccer. 

The finance brain wanted diversification across mid-cap players and international markets...the data said concentration in quality beats spreading thin. 

With the 2026 World Cup approaching, this analysis revealed exactly what to buy, when to sell, and why timing catalysts matters more than outcome gambling. 

Includes operational principles, meta-tagging methodology.

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In this episode of Slabnomics, I pulled every single Panini Prizm base and silver parallel for both players: Lebron James and Lionel Messi. 

I compared PSA 10 populations, last sale prices, and a metric I'm calling Gem Market Cap. What I found shook me.

This episode covers:

How supply, demand & price discovery work differently in cards vs traditional markets
The MLD Valuation Framework (Market, Legacy, Design)
What "Lowest Common Denominator" analysis means for cross-player comparison
Why base cards and silver parallels serve completely different markets
Gem Market Cap: applying stock market thinking to sports cards
Why Pokemon's explosion is a preview of what's coming for soccer

📩 Free weekly newsletter — Comped by Slabnomics: https://slabnomics.com

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 What makes a card valuable—not expensive, but valuable? Matt shares the questions driving his research: Can sets tell us a player's lowest common denominator? Which archetypes have the most seasonal volatility? How do sports card markets mature as alternate assets? From GOAT multipliers to post-hype sleepers, generational prospects to position-specific volatility bands—the frameworks being built behind the scenes at Slabnomics. No deep dives this week, just the questions that will define future episodes. 

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After breaking down PSA 9 and Beckett findings on Instagram last week, this episode returns to fundamentals: how to actually make money in sports cards.

You'll Learn:

• The MLD Framework (Market, Legacy, Design) for valuing any card in 60 seconds
• The Rule for Auction vs BIN... and when to break that rule
• The velocity of money principle: fast nickels vs slow dimes
• How to identify demand windows and downshifts
• Speculation vs investment: knowing which bucket your cards belong in

The data is clear: sellers using auctions get 14.4% more than Buy It Now listings*. But there's a catch—and it matters for high-value cards. This episode breaks down when to use each strategy, how to ride attention cycles, and why capital that isn't working for you is working against you.

Weekly frameworks like this? Subscribe to Comped: a newsletter breaking down card market data every Saturday. Free signup @ Slabnomics.com

#sportscards #cardcollecting #investing #slabnomics #ebay #soccercards #auction #cardflipping #MLD #velocityofmoney

 *"Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets," published by Liran Einav, Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan.

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Want to hear it how it is in the Hobby and tired of everything either being positive or else the sky is falling? This episode is for you.

This week we break from the soccer content to bring on Mike Gioseffi from Sports Card Nonsense. Mike doesn't hold back: "I've heard soccer will be the next big thing since I was on the Orange team in second grade. Still waiting." 

We debate whether soccer cards will ever catch baseball and football in the US market, why baseball still commands 30% of the global card market, and Mike drops some hot takes about sports cards and presidents on coins. 

 Mike's eBay Live selling event with DC Sports - West Wing vs Breaking Bad (yes, really) If you've been wondering whether baseball's dominance is permanent or whether soccer has a real shot with the 2026 World Cup coming to North America, this episode has the debate. 

 ABOUT MIKE GIOSEFFI: Co-host of Sports Card Nonsense podcast, and notorious straight shooter. Catch Sports Card Nonsense wherever you get your podcasts. 

FOLLOW SLABNOMICS: Free Newsletter: Comped by Slabnomics  - Instagram: @slabnomics - Market frameworks, portfolio transparency, and zero hype.

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Is the PSA 9 dead? I dove into the data across three eras (vintage, modern, ultra-modern) and four sports (baseball, basketball, football, soccer) to find out when PSA 9s hold value, and when they're just an expensive failure certificate.

The numbers are staggering: PSA created 31 million new 10s since 2020, compared to just 5 million total from 1991-2019. In 2025 alone, 6.5 million new PSA 10s entered the market. When gem rates hit 60-70%, the 9 becomes meaningless.

In this episode:

Why vintage PSA 9s command massive premiums over raw
Why modern PSA 9s (Luka, Ohtani, Mahomes, Messi) are collapsing to 2x multiples regardless of scarcity
Why Wembanyama has MORE PSA 10s than 9s and what that means for the hobby
The one number that determines if your PSA 9 has value
Actionable advice on when to grade, when to hold 9s, and when to crack and sell raw
The thesis: It's not about the sport. It's not about the player. It's not even about the era. It's about the gem rate. Know your gem rate, Know your market multiplier.

Keywords: PSA grading, PSA 9 vs PSA 10, sports card investing, gem rate, card grading strategy, vintage cards, modern cards, Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mahomes, Lionel Messi, soccer cards, basketball cards, baseball cards, football cards, alternative investments, collectibles market

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The market doesn't reward truth, it rewards timing.

In this episode of Slabnomics, I break down the concept of DEMAND WINDOWS and why understanding the direction of capital flow is the key to profiting in sports cards in 2026.

Key insights from this episode:
→ Why "a rising tide lifts all boats" is WRONG for card investing
→ The supply absorption capacity concept explained
→ Sport-by-sport breakdown: Soccer, Basketball, Football, Baseball, Pokémon
→ Why vintage Pokémon acts like bonds in your portfolio
→ The "Studs and Duds" strategy for 2026
→ My 4-question checklist before ANY purchase

This episode builds on last week's State of the Hobby data analysis—now with actionable strategies you can implement immediately.

📊 THE CHECKLIST (from this episode):
1. What tier is this card in?
2. What direction is demand flowing in this market?
3. Has this tier received capital or is it waiting?
4. Am I positioned ahead of the flow or behind it?

🔗 CONNECT:
Instagram: @slabnomics

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State of the Hobby 2025

Everyone keeps saying this is 2021 again. They're wrong. And if you're positioning like it's 2021, you're going to get hurt. 

I spent weeks treating the card market like an equity analyst treats a stock: pulling index data, PSA submission numbers from SEC filings, volume metrics by price tier. What I found changed how I'm positioning for 2026. 

In this episode: THE CORE INSIGHT, THE PSA PROOF, THE DEMAND SHIFT, CATEGORY BREAKDOWN (by sport+Pokemon), THE BILLIONAIRE SIGNAL, MY POSITIONING

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PSA has officially acquired Beckett, and this is more than breaking news. It’s a structural shift in the sports card market.

In this episode of Slabnomics, we break down what the PSA–Beckett acquisition actually means for collectors, investors, and flippers. We zoom out to examine where we are in the market cycle, explain why this moment signals consolidation, and then zoom all the way in to the microeconomics of cards and sets...the containers that ultimately determine long-term value.

This episode is designed to help you make better financial decisions in sports cards, not chase headlines.

🧠 What You’ll Learn in This Episode

🔹 PSA Buying Beckett and Why This Matters
🔹 Market Cycles Explained 

🔹 Why Consolidation Changes Everything

🔹 Sets as Market Containers (Micro View)

🔹 Who Wins During Consolidation

🔹 What to Avoid
 

🏆 Key Takeaway

Understanding where we are in the cycle helps you position ahead of the market instead of reacting after the fact.

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In this episode of Slabnomics, I’m joined by Tyler “T-Pott” Nethercott: Senior VP of Product at Sports Card Investor and one of the key minds behind the Market Movers app.

Tyler walks through his journey from banking, risk analysis, and SAP data projects into building one of the most important sports card data platforms in the hobby. From there, we dive deep into what actually separates successful investors and collectors from everyone else: critical thinking, probability, and good decision-making frameworks.

We talk about:

• The early days of Market Movers, beta testing, and building a massive card database
• Why critical thinking & problem solving beat “knowing every checklist”
• Using floor, ceiling, probability, and opportunity cost to guide card buys
• How Market Movers thinks about roadmapping, parity vs differentiation, and user feedback
• The future of AI, exploration, and augmented discovery in sports card apps
• How to find mispriced opportunities by understanding why certain cards are expensive and applying that logic to overlooked segments
• The difference between collecting what you like and investing in what others like and will like later

If you’re serious about sports card investing, want to get smarter with data and tools, or you’re curious how AI might change the way we search for and value cards, this conversation will give you a ton to think about.

This episode is for you if:

• You want to level up from beginner to intermediate (or beyond) in the hobby
• You care about sports cards as an alternative asset class
• You want frameworks, not just “buy this card” calls

Connect:

• Follow Tyler on YouTube: @MarketMovers
• Follow me and Tyler on Instagram: @Slabnomics, #drummondcardcollector
• Watch full episodes on YouTube: Slabnomics

If you enjoyed this episode, please:

• Follow the show on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
• Share it with a friend who loves data, tools, and nerdy hobby talk

Whether you’re investing or collecting…
 Keep building.

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