SoftBank is doubling down on artificial intelligence with a $30 billion commitment to OpenAI and ambitious plans for Stargate – even as risks mount. After a 200% surge earlier this year, shares tumbled 40% in November when Google’s Gemini 3.0 gained traction, threatening ChatGPT’s dominant position in the AI race. Credit stress is rising, with CDS widening to nearly 300 basis points as funding concerns build. Investors and creditors are increasingly uneasy as OpenAI now accounts for about 20% of SoftBank’s net assets, turning what was once seen as a bold growth play into a potential source of concentrated risk.

Bloomberg Intelligence equity analyst Kirk Boodry and credit analyst Sharon Chen join John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. Together they unpack SoftBank’s AI ambitions, its reliance on margin loans and the implications of circular financing. They also weigh up Masayoshi Son’s track record – spectacular wins such as Alibaba and painful failures like WeWork – against his latest AI gamble.

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