In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down SpaceX’s S-1, unpacking what the filing reveals about Starlink, xAI, X, common control accounting, revenue, losses, CapEx, and Elon Musk’s Mars-linked compensation structure.

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LINKS: 

CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 SpaceX S1 breakdown

0:50 Elon's Mars colony comp plan

2:03 Common control accounting: SpaceX + xAI + X

3:04 What SpaceX actually does

3:43 How reusable rockets work

4:24 Launch cost curve: foundation of everything

5:49 Launch services: $8B, 85% of global launches

6:44 Starlink: $11.4B, 63% EBITDA margins

7:36 xAI and X: burning $1B/month

8:22 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY

11:18 Colossus and orbital AI thesis

11:41 Revenue, segments and CapEx breakdown

14:54 RPO: $28.4B backlog

15:18 Starlink subscribers and ARPU decline

16:01 Target valuation: $1.5–1.75 trillion

16:47 Starlink deep dive

18:05 International pricing strategy

21:38 The consolidated entity problem

22:28 Related party section: nine pages

22:32 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph

26:15 Valor Equity: $20B in equipment leases

27:05 Tesla cross-ownership and Terrafab

28:23 R&D: $8.6B, 46% of revenue

30:33 Starship: key risk and growth linchpin

31:41 Red flag 1: CEO comp tied to Mars colony

32:22 Red flag 2: Musk concentration risk

32:49 Red flag 3: Cursor option — $10B downside

33:36 Red flag 4: X advertising is shrinking

34:06 IPO structure and SPCX ticker

34:50 30% retail allocation, no lockups

35:44 S&P 500 inclusion forces buying within 15 days

37:54 Valuation: 60–70x forward revenue

38:43 Peer comparison

39:44 What you're buying at $1.5T

40:53 CFO comp: the only sane plan in the filing

41:25 Bitcoin on the balance sheet

41:57 Credits