Grant McDowell & Tim Buckley– Spark Club Podcast 27 May 2026

Highlights – ACCELERATING RENEWABLES DRIVES NEM ELECTRICITY PRICE DEFLATION

• Amazing to see electricity price DEFLATION being delivered in Australia in the middle of the latest fossil fuel war, with its resulting hyperinflation of global fossil fuel prices.

• The Australian Energy Regulator has released its final Default Market Offer (DMO) starting 1 July 2026. Residential flat rate standing offer prices will fall by between 3-5% in NSW and by 7.2% in South East Queensland compared to last year, while South Australian households will have a modest increase of 1.4%.

• Small businesses will see reductions across all three regions, with prices decreasing by 7-12% in South Australia, 10-14% in South East Queensland, and 9.0-21% in NSW.

• Earlier this week the Essential Services Commission delivered a further reduction in the Victorian Default Offer; FY2026–27 will be on average 5% lower than last year for households. For small businesses the price is down on average 6%.

• A major contributing factor is the record high investments into clean energy by Australia's public – with over 400k home battery installs totalling >11GWh achieved in just 11 months, supporting the 3GW pa of rooftop solar installs.

Lowlights – China installed just 75GW of RE in 4MCY2026, -41%$ yoy

• Solar installs of 51GW in 4M 2026 -51% yoy. Still more than the RoW combined, but disappointingly down in the middle of year.

• China added a depressing 28GW of fossil powered capacity YTD 2026, +26% yoy.

• Why? China is consolidating after knocking the lights out last year. But also GDP growth is still on track at +5% yoy, and Industrial value-add +5.6% yoy. Keeping their govt. firepower in-case Trump attacks China again, and this time has an impact, unlike the last few times!

• In the electricity sector, total electricity generation was +5.4% yoy YTD 2026, unfortunately with nuclear down yoy, coal power was +3.8% yoy. Not what we want to see continue over the rest of 2026.

Main Story – The ABC / Guardian Australia Epic reveal

• A major exposé on ABC Four Corners on Monday, in collaboration with the Guardian, revealed irrefutable evidence of BHP reversing its commitments to meaningfully cut emissions in a credible timeframe. The egregious walkback, as the climate crisis escalates, was laid out in hundreds of pages of leaked internal company records.

• What BHP does matters. It is the world's largest mining company by market capitalisation, generating revenues of US$51bn in the last financial year with underlying earnings of US$26bn and a US$18bn pre-tax profit to its shareholders.

• Andrew Mackenzie, BHP's CEO until 2019, said publicly that decarbonisation was a strategic imperative, with failure to act posing an existential risk. Its Pilbara decarbonisation plans were urgent and comprehensive, and involved rapid electrification of locomotives and haulage trucks, and a massive buildout of solar to reduce diesel and gas dependence. It had plans to deploy US$3bn in decarbonisation investment by 2030 to underpin its climate targets and secure its licence to operate.

• Then it all went to the proverbial.

• In 2024, CEO Mike Henry introduced BHP's Climate Transition Action Plan (CTAP, aka CRAP), which sounds great except for it being entirely hollow. BHP massively delayed its entire decarbonisation trajectory until after 2030 – trashing its stated intention to address climate risk and abrogating its corporate responsibility to act in this critical decade.

• Astonishingly, the "plan" forecasts BHP's global emissions will rise from FY2025-FY2030. Up is not down. There is currently categorically zero chance of BHP's plans meeting its net zero by 2050 commitment.

• In the knowledge that this story was coming, BHP vigorously cranked up the spin machine. A curiously timed pamphlet, released last week by economics consultancy Mandala, which has close ties to the PMO, broke down top ASX listed industrial corporates' global scope 1 and 2 emissions profiles in FY2025 vs FY2020, conveniently pitching BHP as a corporate leader. BHP then mounted an ad campaign trumpeting the trumped-up claims.

• To call Mandala's brochure misleading is generous. BHP primarily relies on the electrification of BHP's huge Chilean copper mining operations and the closure of the high emissions NickelWest business to boost BHP's decarbonisation credentials and obscures BHP's dereliction of its responsibilities in the Pilbara.

• Production-based emissions intensity would tell a different story on BHP's progress, and that of other giants like Rio featured by Mandala – despite the coordinated reporting in The Australian engineered to promulgate the Mandala talking points while bashing genuine decarbonisation leader Fortescue.

• Why the heel dragging by BHP? Follow the money – the billions paid to the big miners each year by the federal government to maintain their imported diesel addiction.

• In Australia, BHP extracts from the taxpayer a $620m annual imported diesel refund covering the staggering 1.2 billion litres of this climate-destroying fuel it uses each year in its mining operations. Diesel powers >60% of BHP's total energy needs. This dependency undermines our national energy independence, which requires an accelerated transition to homegrown renewables, and continues to put Australia's energy security at risk. It persists in an increasingly fraught global geopolitical landscape riven by energy wars – see PM Anthony Albanese begging our trade partners for supply as the global oil supply shock rolls on. And BHP is the #1 beneficiary of this insane structural barrier to mining industry decarbonisation and the massive opportunities for onshoring and reskilling of our workforce.

• Meanwhile Fortescue is investing US$6-7bn this decade in electrification, decarbonisation and energy security in the Pilbara – a world leading effort to position Australian iron ore mining at the forefront of emissions reduction. It is partnering with the best cleantech firms in the world, who happen to mostly be domiciled in China – Australia's #1 trade partner and biggest iron ore customer. In so doing it is building important geopolitical bridges for Australia even as world trade is undermined by the US.

• Despite being a leading beneficiary of the diesel subsidy, Fortescue is a vocal advocate of urgent reform, as demonstrated by CEO Dino Otranto on Four Corners. Fortescue supports CEF's position that the subsidy should be capped at $50m per firm pa, with recipients required to invest any refund above that threshold in decarbonisation, or forgo that amount. This reform would convert a massive headwind to energy transition in mining to a Transition Tax Incentive, instantly accelerating decarbonisation and enabling Australia to grasp the immense green industrial opportunities of the emerging net zero global economy. A tightening of the Safeguard Mechanism is also key to incentivising decarbonisation, with a progressive ratcheting up of minimum Australian Carbon Credit Unit prices, to make polluters like BHP meaningfully cut emissions or pay.

• The facts are that BHP, like Rio Tinto, Hancock Prospecting and Fortescue for the past 6 years have tapped into literal rivers of gold from their iron ore exports, booking return on capital ranging from 30% pa up to 70% pa. BHP's FY2025 results for WA iron ore cite an "5 year average return of ~65%", which any company would kill for. They have the capital firepower to massively invest, accelerate electrification and decarbonisation of the Pilbara now as Fortescue is doing, and lead the world. Yet they sit on their hands. The region has a pathetic renewable energy penetration of just 2% versus 44% for Australia's national grid.

• We need an end to the Big Australian's gutless reversals on climate, cheap talk and abysmal underinvestment in Australian decarbonisation. Equally, we need an urgent show of political courage from the government to decouple BHP and its counterparts from the firehose of diesel cash they have clamped themselves to at the expense of the people and the planet.

What's coming up?

• 27/28 May 2026 CEF Tim will be attending the Hunter New Energy Symposium in Newcastle to talk about the progress in the Hunter Valley on practical advances in the energy transition as it is occurring there.

• 18-27th June Tim is in China with Austrade and SEC seeing my favourite companies e.g. XCMG, Sigenergy, China State Grid, Windrose & Xiami.

The Silicon to Solar study allowed Oliver Hartley and his colleagues assess the opportunity for Australia to play a role in the global solar PV value chain.

In this Spark Club podcast Oliver shares how Australia can indeed play a meaningful role in the global solar value chain.

All the right elements are there for the taking. A deep global market, big project experience and expertise, willing partners, and a key pillar in our low-cost clean energy intensive industries of the future.

A fascinating conversation. Enjoy the podcast. Link to: ARENA AusSi Study-Knowledge Sharing Report

Highlights – The SEC Sydney conference

• Brilliant to see a full house standing room only for Minister Bowen's talk.
• Great to have >8000 attendees to the wider trade hall and >100 speakers over two days in up to 8 theatres concurrently. So many people pulling in the right direction, reinvigorating.

Highlights – Fuel Tax Credit reform

• Whilst the Albanese government has ruled out FTC reform in next TUES budget, it is still a campaign CEF and our allies are working extensively on, maybe for MYEFO Dec'2026.
• Brilliant to see Twiggy, Chair of FMG, give a SEC keynote speech, and more than half of it was on the need for FTC reform starting in the mining sector. FMG is busy funding an ad campaign to elevate the topic and inform voters. Twiggy's slide deck was mostly leveraging my CEF colleague Matt Pollard's number crunching and work.

Highlights – The Cheaper Home Batteries Program and Accelerating capital deployments

• Almost every presenter at the SEC conference talked about the brilliant milestone of >10GWh combined across 380,000 new home battery installs in just 10 months.
• April 2026 was a record high, showing how much capital and skills can be deployed at speed and scale when the policy / economics are aligned.
• Treasurer Chalmers has allocated $7.2bn for the home battery scheme, and to-date $3.3bn has been deployed, including a $1bn in the month of April. Nothing like a single program in a single month deploying $1bn to kick up the momentum.
• CEF & Greenhouse are tracking budget and capital deployments in cleantech, decarbonisation, electrification and green metal value-add exports and since the start of 2023, an additional $90bn has been put on the table - $82bn federally and $8bn collectively from the states. This $8bn was bumped up nicely last week with the WA Government putting a $1.4bn Clean Energy Fund into the WA State Budget.
• We have tracked in CY2025 deployments of some $15bn, and in the first 4 months of 2026, we have tracked another $6bn (an $18bn run-rate). CCF and ARIA had been running campaigns to push the governments to accelerate the speed and scale of capital deployments, and we are seeing progress. From 1 July 2026 the new $5bn Net Zero Fund opens its doors, so there is capacity building. But good to see momentum improving.

Highlights – More RE share => lower energy prices

• AEMO QED report highlighted RE share in 1QCY2026 was 46%, after the record high 50% share seen in 4QCY2025. So we are making progress. We also saw reports the installed utility scale BESS capacity will treble in the next 1-2 years, making grid reliability better, and now batteries are the #1 price setting technology in the NEM, diluting the power of gas peakers in setting high prices at times of high demand. BESS => deflation
• And also worth thinking about the contrast of 2026 vs 2022: in 2026, petrol prices are up 50% vs the start of this year, but domestic gas prices are down 20% vs the start of this year, and electricity prices are down 12% as well. Last time we had a fossil fuel industry war back in 2022 when Putin invaded Ukraine, petrol prices doubled, gas prices doubled and electricity prices trebled. Chalk and Cheese. The gas cartel is in check in 2026, and RE shares are much higher, giving proof to the fossil fuel vested interests lie that RE => higher energy prices. The opposite, we now understand fossil fuel prices are hyper inflationary.
• And energy independence is a new key theme to add in support of electrification and decarbonisation. We will win this fight, we just need to go twice as fast.

Lowlights

• The Albanese government has ruled out a 25% LNG export levy, very disappointing. The government has made "now is not the time" their mantra to show a lack of political will, using the excuse their #1 priority is to secure oil imports for Australia and they don't have the capacity to do two things at once. Very poor form, but we can never under-estimate the power of the incumbent fossil fuel industry, their lobbyists and their corrupting donations.
• We did secure an East Coast Gas reservation of 20% of production from 1 July 2027. Good and bad, it helps reduce energy cost inflation for sure, but it also means the hurdle for electrification and decarbonisation is harder, given methane is cheaper.

Main Story – Our Clean Energy Finance Report: Green Metal Statecraft: Policy, Investment and Technology Trends in the Green Iron Evolution https://climateenergyfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CEF_Green-Metal-Statecraft_-Policy-Investment-and-Technology-Trends-in-the-Green-Iron-Evolution.pdf

• The decarbonisation and electrification of the global iron and steel industry is undergoing a structural recalibration, shifting from a period of speculative optimism on the now deflated hype regarding the rapid deployment of GH2, and into a slower decarbonisation trajectory.
• This report provides qualitative update of the investment, technology and enabling policy trends that will underpin the transformation of the iron and steel value chain.
• In aggregate the global sector is advancing unevenly, haltingly, sporadically and at a pace that remains deeply misaligned with the speed and breadth of decarbonisation of the sector – which contributes 7-9% of global emissions – demanded by the climate science.
• For every step forward on an individual project or market-level, the broader investment pipeline showcases an equivalent case study of project delay, cancellation, and restructure in the face of unresolved structural headwinds.
• Despite tens of billions in state aid, a strengthening carbon pricing mechanism, and supply-side and demand-side market forming mechanisms in the EU, the European investment pipeline has undergone a significant contraction in recent years. The investment trends, or lack thereof, of proposals progressing towards FID in Europe are indicative of structural headwinds. European electricity prices, even prior to the last two energy crises, remain 2-3x that of the US and domestic methane gas costs are 5x that of the US, and a similar order of magnitude higher than the rapidly emerging competing iron reduction region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
• There remains a clear bankability gap for near-zero carbon routes for iron and steel production.
• Across both the EU and China, deep decarbonisation means a structural shift away from coal-based production pathways in blast furnaces (BF) and basic oxygen furnaces (BOF). High upfront capital cost intensities, exposure to higher operating costs in electricity and renewable hydrogen – notwithstanding strong public capital support, decarbonising mature lower-emission pathways in hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and EAF smelting face major bankability gaps.
• Despite the US war on Iran, the MENA region is emerging as a strategically important DRI production corridor, with significant methane-based DRI capacity operational, and the largest development pipeline of new gas-based capacity. MENA's competitive advantages in lower-emissions iron and steel production extend further into near-zero emissions manufacturing with some of the world's best renewable energy resources, low costs of capital and less stringent regulations and approvals processes than the EU. MENA's geographic proximity to Europe, existing DRI infrastructure, and access to competitive renewable energy position the region as the most credible near-term supplier of lower-emission primary iron to Europe's growing need for decarbonised iron and steel.
• At the current pace of decarbonisation, demand for DRI is expected to grow by 50% over the coming decade to reach 224Mtpa by 2035.
• The day we released our report, the US saw a FOAK 1.9Mtpa hot DRI plant reach FID at US Steel, co-located with 4 EAFs. This US$1.9bn investment is despite Trump's anti-decarbonisation agenda, the economics simply work. A big step forward, even in the US
• Globally, we have a long way to go. It is a race, and Australia needs to get into the race. Australia is half the worlds iron ore exports, whilst China is half the world's steel production. So there is a massive opportunity for the two biggest countries globally in the steel supply chain to work constructively together. But if we don't want to work with China, they will take their capital and capacities elsewhere.

What's coming up?

• 12 May 2026 we have the Federal 2026 budget
• 27/28 May 2026 CEF will be attending the Hunter New Energy Symposium in Newcastle to talk about the progress in the Hunter Valley on practical advances in the energy transition as it is occurring there.

Highlights – The Business Leaders Forum at Boao, China

Tim attended the Boao Forum in Hainan Island, China, joining an Australian delegation that included Oliver Yates, Frank Jotzo, Justin Punch, Jenny Selway, Geoff Brooks, Andrew Forrest and six members of the FMG green team, and Australian Ambassador to China Scott Dewar.

China's stated position remains one of full commitment to electrification and decarbonisation.

Highlights – PRRT Reform div]:bg-bg-000/50 gmail-[&_pre>div]:border-0.5 gmail-[&_pre>div]:border-border-400 gmail-[&_.ignore-pre-bg>div]:bg-transparent gmail-[&_.standard-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pl-2 gmail-[&_.standard-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,ul,ol,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pr-8 gmail-[&_.progressive-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pl-2 gmail-[&_.progressive-markdown_:is(p,blockquote,ul,ol,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6)]:pr-8"> _*]:min-w-0 gmail-gap-3 gmail-standard-markdown">

The ACTU continues to call for a flat 25% tax on Australian LNG to replace the The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, with the objective of capturing windfall profits and generating tax revenues of up to $10bn to fund energy poverty relief across Australia.

The Albanese government is reported to be considering options to impose a new levy on gas multinationals, as well as further changes to the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax (PRRT).

CEF's Matt Pollard has published a detailed analysis (featured in Pearls & Wisdom) examining how the Queensland State Government's 2022 move to a progressive tiered royalty system saw the state receive 40 cents in the dollar for coal export sales above $300/t, with five lower tiers starting at 7% when coal prices are depressed. This generated $18bn in FY2023, compared to NSW receiving $4.5bn under its existing framework. The coal industry recorded $50bn in gross profit in a single year during a period of elevated energy prices affecting consumers.

Highlights – Accelerating Capital Deployments

Treasurer Chalmers' Single Front Door pilot is now operational. The Treasurer noted: "The supply chain disruptions we are seeing as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East demonstrate just how important it is to build up our sovereign capability in these essential areas."

Four project proposals are under consideration:

• HAMR — converting biomass into low-carbon liquid fuels, leveraging the Federal Government's $1.1bn low-carbon liquid fuels funding via the CEFC
• Ardea Resources' Kalgoorlie Nickel & Cobalt Project (WA) — one of Australia's largest nickel and cobalt resources
• New Energy Transport's Wilton Project (south-west of Sydney) — a large-scale zero-emission heavy road freight depot
• Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners' Murchison Green Hydrogen Project (mid-west WA) — a green hydrogen plant proposing large-scale green ammonia production using wind, solar, and desalination. This proposal received an $814m Hydrogen Headstart grant from ARENA in March 2025. The project's path to FID appears contingent on securing a long-term offtake agreement and an Asian CBAM mechanism.

Government capital deployments total $4.5bn year-to-date as of April 2026, representing an annualised run-rate of $16bn, up from CY2025's $15bn — and excluding a potential Tomago deployment of up to $10bn.

Lowlights

Canavan and Co's coal-to-oil proposal is a thought bubble. (stronger language in the podcast)

Main Story – CEF Op-Ed in The Energy: Lessons for Australia from the Global Energy Crisis

As global oil markets face significant uncertainty and price volatility, China has spent two decades building energy independence as a strategic hedge against exactly the kind of energy disruption now affecting global markets.

At the recent Boao Forum in Hainan, energy security framed every panel across the week. China's position was clearly stated: it will maintain its electrification and decarbonisation targets and engage with any nation that wishes to participate. This stands in contrast to Washington's current posture.

Building a new oil refinery would take approximately a decade, and no private investors are currently proposing to do so in Australia. Australia's two remaining refineries are sub-scale, ageing, and have received ongoing government subsidies. Coal-to-liquid technology has not attracted significant investment in comparable economies.

Australia does not need to replicate China's political model to draw lessons from its long-term energy planning approach. A 15-year transition horizon for the trucking sector — shifting away from imported diesel — is achievable if investment begins now. Rooftop solar can be installed within hours. An EV purchased today eliminates imported fuel dependency for approximately 20 years, directly contributing to domestic energy security.

One observable consequence of the current geopolitical environment is that electrification timelines are likely to accelerate globally.

What's Coming Up

Tim is travelling to Perth to speak at a Critical Battery Minerals conference, presenting CEF's recent report on China's expansion into critical minerals, strategic metals mining, and upstream value-adding, and the implications for Australia.

• 6–7 May 2026 — SEC Sydney Conference
• 12 May 2026 — Federal Budget 2026

Grant McDowell is in London and Tim Buckley is in Sydney recording the Spark Club Podcast on the 23rd March 2026 Highlights – Draft AER Default Market Offer Brilliant to see the Australian Energy Regulator has today flagged draft default market offer (DMO) electricity pricing down ⬇️ 1% to ⏬ 10% for residential consumers, and between ⬇️ 8% to ⏬ 21% for small business consumers The DMO sets an efficiently priced safety-net for households and small businesses on standing offer electricity plans and acts as a reference price to help consumers compare market offers. This is the draft ruling, with the final ruling released May 2026 for effect for the 12 months starting 1 July 2026. This is consistent with Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)'s quarterly energy dynamics highlighting Australia hit a record high 51% RenewableEnergy share in the 4QCY2025, and wholesale electricity prices fell by >40% yoy as a result. Highlights – PRRT reform - Petroleum Resource Rent Tax - Dodge The ACTU this week is calling for a flat 25% tax on Australian LNG to replace the entirely failing PRRT, to capture the wind fall war-profits being generated, and to then use the massive tax revenues of up to $40bn to fund energy poverty relief across Australia. Highlights – CATL CY2025 results highlight their global leadership and scale Nothing short of staggering to watch the rise and rise of China's CATL to supremacy in battery manufacturing. Their speed & scale of technology innovation is amazing to see. 🔋 a ⏫ 42% yoy jump in net profit to Rmb72.2bn (US$10.4bn) before one-off items, on sales ⏫ 17% yoy to Rmb424bn. 🔋 a ⏫ 39% yoy lift in sales volume of lithium-ion batteries to 661GWh 🔋 CATL has a massive home market advantage. China is the world's largest EV & BESS market. China's EV industry continued to grow sales nearly 30% yoy to >16 million units. 🔋 CATL sold 541GWh of power batteries, ⏫ 41.9% yoy, propelling the company to a new all-time high in global market share. 🔋 CATL employs >23,000 R&D personnel, investing Rmb22bn in CY2025, +19% yoy (5.2% of sales). CATL stands as the sole battery industry firm selected for the "Top 100 Global Innovators." Total number of domestic & foreign patents owned and applied for by CATL reached 54,538. Lowlights

• The AFR is running a Minerals Council of Australia line that the Albanese government will ignore their super majority and leave the $11bn annual subsidy for high emissions super expensive imported diesel fuels in place. Claiming now is not the time. Tim disagrees. We need to learn from the current crisis and put in place

Main Story – NEW CEF REPORT: CHINA'S $120bn INVESTMENT BLITZ INTO GLOBAL CRITICAL MINERALS LEAVES AUSTRALIA EXPOSED Climate Energy Finance report warns Australia's dig-and-ship economy faces a clear and present threat as China systematically diversifies away from Australian supply across lithium, iron ore and critical minerals New report released 19th March – Raw Power: China locks-in global dominance of critical minerals and metals with $120bn outbound investment surge – finds that China's accelerating outbound resource investment program is reducing China's supply chain risks and locking-in its global dominance of key materials as it diversifies away from its dependence on Australian exports. This presents a clear and present economic risk to Australia, particularly as we have yet to find a structure to allow our world leading mining sector to move meaningfully beyond "dig-and-ship". CEF's report finds that:

• Australia holds world-significant reserves of the critical minerals and strategic metals that underpin the zero-emissions economy – bauxite, copper, nickel, rare earths – and is the world's #1 exporter of both lithium and iron ore, with China the overwhelmingly dominant destination for both. Yet Australia fails to process onshore, as a result ranking 105th of 145 countries on Harvard's Atlas of Economic Complexity, behind Botswana and Côte d'Ivoire, with manufacturing accounting for just 6% of GDP.
• CEF has tracked China investing more than US$120bn around the globe into mining and upstream processing since 2023 – building lithium supply chains across Africa and South America, anchoring the US$23 billion Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, and increasingly developing in-country processing capacity across partner nations. This is starkly illustrated by Simandou, which delivered its first shipment to China in January. Once fully ramped up by 2029, it will make Guinea the world's third largest iron ore exporter, producing high grade ore suitable for green steel. It is the centrepiece of China's explicit strategy to reduce its 80% reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore supply, directly threatening Australia's long dominance.
• In lithium mining, China's own domestic production now outstrips Australia's, where as recently as 2023 Australia had a 50% global market share. The absence of new Chinese investment into Australian lithium is a direct reflection of China's strategic diversification, and the February 2026 closure of Albemarle's lithium hydroxide plant in WA after just four years is a stark consequence of China's capacity expansions,both on- and offshore, and the critical need for a public interest response by Australia's governments to protect our base industrial capacities on national interest grounds. A string of threatened closures across alumina, aluminium, nickel, copper, lead, zinc and steel signals our mining value-add sector is under existential pressure.
• KPMG tracks that Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) into Australia has collapsed by 85% since 2018, in 2024 making up just 1.5% of total inbound OFDI, and at just US$882m, a fraction of the peak of US$16bn in 2008 – even as two-way Australia-China trade reached an all-time record of A$300bn in 2025.
• CEF notes the geopolitical move by Japan's JOGMEC in March 2026 to collaborate with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths to secure rare earth supply long term at an agreed and mutually beneficial price. This is the sort of strategic investment required to enhance global supply chain resilience and underwrite surety of supply. Far more effective and lasting than blunt import tariffs on everyone and threats.
• Australia's green industrial program – the Future Made in Australia (FMIA) initiative, backed by more than A$81bn in federal capital support since 2023, plus A$6bn from state governments – is directionally correct and strategically important, particularly in the absence of a sufficient carbon pollution price signal to mobilise private capital. However, FMIA must accelerate in both ambition and execution, and be leveraged to attract value-adding FOAK investment. We should carefully and selectively engage in partnership opportunities with China, the world's cleantech leader, before its diversification away from Australian supply becomes more pronounced.

We make a number of recommendations including balancing policy support for foreign investment with targeted anti-dumping tariffs, local content mandates and onshore processing as a condition of new partnerships; accelerating public capital deployment to crowd-in private investment to value-adding industries; prioritising carbon pricing to value renewables-powered commodity value-adding; developing Green Energy Statecraft for national security, including an Australia-China Green Transition Cooperation Framework; and reforming Australia's foreign investment review regime to create a fast-track pathway for strategically aligned green projects. What's coming up? Tim is off to Hainan province in China next week for the Boao Forum business forum between Australia and China.

Grant McDowell & Tim Buckley– Spark Club Podcast 19 Feb 2026 - Hi and welcome to Spark Club podcast. I'm your host Grant McDowell. We are recording this podcast on the Garigal lands of the Eora nation and pay our respects to elders past and present. Welcome. And welcome Tim Buckley. Highlights Domestic firmed RE deployment The Clean Energy Council's 4Q2025 Investment Report demonstrates a rebound in large-scale renewable energy and storage investment across Australia. The quarter delivered record commissioning outcomes across generation and batteries, strong financial close activity. Five renewable generation projects (1.2 GW) and 5 storage projects (1.1 GW) reached FID during 4Q2025, with total capex >$4 billion across generation, storage and hybrid assets. newly commissioned renewable and storage projects. Nine generation projects were completed totalling 2.1GW of new. 4 storage projects (1.9 GW / 4.9 GWh) became operational, beating records broken in Q3 2025, reinforcing Australia's accelerating energy transition. The forward pipeline remains robust. There are currently 81 generation projects (13GW) and 75 storage projects (13 GW / 35GWh) either financially committed or under construction. This month started with NSW awarding contracts to six huge 8-hour battery projects, including one of the biggest in Australia – the 300MW and 3,500 megawatt hour Great Western BESS, All are due to be completed by 2030, and some are supersized above eight hours of storage. 1.2 GW and 12 GWh of long duration storage, massively further undermining the role of methane and PHS. This week also saw NSW announce an extra tender for more firmed renewables capacity to fill looming coal gap under Long-Term Energy Service Agreements (LTESAs) to leverage the fast to deploy BESS and solar leveraging infill opportunities across NSW and importantly, leverage the Battery boom to get more zero emissions generation into the mix. CBAM KEY TO GREEN COMMODITY OPPORTUNITY: JOTZO REVIEW Professor Frank Jotzo's Carbon Leakage Review Report to Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is finally public. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/carbon-leakage-review-final-report We agree with the review's finding that measures additional to the Safeguard Mechanism "may be required and desirable over time, for specific commodities at high exposure to carbon leakage risk in domestic markets…. A border carbon adjustment would be the most suitable option in these cases… [to] support the emergence of green commodity production in Australia, harnessing this country's opportunities to be a major contributor to global industrial decarbonisation through exports." It is clear that we need a price signal to drive decarbonisation of trade-exposed Australian industries through the extensive buildout of renewables infrastructure at speed and scale. Critical to all of the above is a price on carbon, leveraging and enhancing our domestic actions so as to provide a stronger signal for development of carbon pricing in international trade, and building on the price signal of the EU CBAM with an Asian CBAM, as we argued in our 2025 report. This would help catalyse investment into industrial decarbonisation at a speed and scale commensurate with the climate emergency and the green economy opportunity. GM - I'd like to pick up on minor issue relating to the design of the REGO in Australia replacing the LGC. The calculation mechanism for the Australian REGO is out of sync with the global standard. The REGO certificate is limited to the 1MWh per certificate rather than down to the watt hour per trading period. Sounds trivial but the REGO has a fundamental flaw as it requires the excess to be rolled over into the next trading period. This volume won't be accepted in the EU, meaning there will be small amounts of energy volume which can't be counted for every half hour trading period for the year. This flaw creates numerous problems as a global energy matching standard emerges in a number of forms;

• CBAMs in EU and Asia
• Green product standards - green hyrdogen green steel.
• and likely changes to GHGP Scope 2 in 2027.

This minor flaw is annoying and with a minor change to the REGO now we can save Australian exporters a world of pain for years to come. Middle Powers Highlight As the Middle Powers are a big topic for us this year, was there anything that jumped out to you since our last conversation? EV Buses in India Tim - KKR investment in electric buses in India. EV busses in India are now 30% lower total cost of ownership relative to diesel alternatives. The 30% cost advantage was enough to get KR over the line to put capital into rolling out EV buses in India. Australia risks being wedged. Australia must be open to international trade with all nations and avoid being wedged between China and the US. Lowlights Whyalla The SA Government has shelved their green hydrogen plans last year, and now the SA Treasurer has overtly flagged their intention to double down on the false dreams of a gas led recovery for the Whyalla Steelworks. Meanwhile this week saw the SA Premier provide a joint Federal-State $20m support for the magnetite mining sector is SA to boost 2Mtpa magnetite mining, a move we endorse. As per CEF's report last year, we think the government should support a multiphase redevelopment of the iron ore to green steel sector of SA by expanding magnetite mining and supporting a new greenfield RE-powered EAF to replace the beyond end of life blast furnace, and to ensure steel supply for downstream fabrication. Secondly our governments should use a chunk of the $500m Green iron investment fund to support semi-commercial scale deployments of Australian technologies to produce decarbonised iron and steel, namely a pilot Element Zero electrolyte green iron plant, a second 30ktpa Calix ZESTY magnetite to green iron plant and a 8ktpa BioCarbon plant, plus incentivising scrap steel recycling within state to feed the new EAF, with the majority of the input material imported for the first 5 years of operation. A phase 2 in the early 2030s would be to build a GH2 and RE powered green iron plant once the economics are stronger, and a path towards an Asian CBAM is better established. Main Story – Local content mandate – Ministers Ayres and Bowen are holding a rapid industry consultation about a new Future Made in Australia (FMIA) policy to incentivise local wind tower and transmission tower manufacturing. CEF has worked over the last year with an industry consortium and we pitched this exact policy initiative to the minister in December. Our recommendation was a policy with four pronged policy

1. A 20% national mandate for wind tower local content, leveraging and collaborating with low cost Chinese suppliers
2. A Production Credit to ensure the policy doesn't increase the cost of wind power to consumers
3. A clear long term volume target of 4GW of new wind annually to underpin factory utilisation
4. Capex assistance for the new factories required.

Interesting to see the EU this week do boosting local content mandates, The EU's upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act could signal a pivotal moment for green steel producers in northern Sweden. New "Made in Europe" rules are thought to require at least 25% low-carbon steel in public procurement and subsidy-backed projects. Green hydrogen-based production, electric arc furnaces, and scrap-based methods are, according to Bloomberg, explicitly highlighted as priority technologies. What's coming up? Tim is attending the community engagement in the Hunter Valley this week, to help build social licence, and then over the next couple of weeks attending and speaking at a number of conferences e.g. Cambridge Institute of Sustainability Leaders (CISL) Group in Melbourne and Sydney and the Clean Energy Investor Group conference (CEIG) annual investor conference in Melbourne, Climate Action Week in Sydney the following week, then the Sydney Storage conference.

Quick 2025 retrospective We see the Climate Energy Finance's role as to provide a narrative difference to the mainstream media, and to try to leverage global / non-US developments to better inform Australia's understanding of the energy system transformation, the threats and opportunities for Australia.

Our three main pillars of conversation in 2025 were;

China BESS - Batteries were likely to surprise, and they certainly did, even CEF's most bullish expectations. Australia's opportunity to go faster with some wins and many frustrations. And Carbon peaked emissions in 2024, flat to down in 2025 – despite 5% GDP growth. Big themes 2026 – From Grant McDowell

• In 2025 we discussed the rise and rise of China. In 2026 I think we'll see the rise and rise of the middle powers.
• New world disorder is opening up opportunities for China to collaborate with the middle powers, and beyond. China has learned from the mistakes of the Belt Road Initiative and seeking to collaborate.
• China's EVs are displacing over one million barrels of oil demand a day. The middle powers are moving from molecules to electrons for clean electricity and transport.
• Middle powers are tired of being lumbered with decades long expensive fossil generators are now leaning into many small and cheap. See Ethiopia's ban on petrol and diesel vehicle imports.
• Carbon trajectory – EU CBAM helps set a new market for world trade and carbon polluting countries. So once again we'll be following the work of Ember and Lauri Myllyirta.
• And our conversations will naturally include Australia. I'll be watching our energy transformation closely as we face a chicken and egg problem. As coal generation is extended investors are reluctant to back utility scale wind and solar projects. Which then allows the coal generation to extend. Utility scale batteries will play a role, however wind generation is key and every effort should be made to deploy, deploy, deploy.

Lets review each of those in turn. - Tim Buckley

1. China's "Small and beautiful", a positive reframing of the BRI to a more win-win-win approach.
   1. Mark Carney's middle powers speech, the India-UK FTA, and countries across Africa et al embracing electrification and energy independence,
   2. Small and beautiful, a reframing of the BRI to a more win-win-win approach.
   3. CEF has tracked >US%210bn of OFDI in cleantech since 2023.
   4. CEF has another major report pending on this, looking at China going global in resources and resource-value-adding over the last 3 years.
2. Carbon trajectory - 100% agree.
   1. China will spend the next 2 years expanding their national ETS by 50% to cover major industrial sectors, and then when ready, they'll starting talking about international alignment with the EU CBAM. Meanwhile, they will get ready.
   2. Japan's GX-ETS strategy includes carbon pricing being launched from April 2026, covering 60% of national emissions, a floor and ceiling price out to 2035, by 2030 A$18=46/t, then doubling again by 2035.
3. Australia electricity generation problems - True
   1. The CIS has to move from a lot of large scale announcements through to delivering projects into FID and construction, at speed and scale. Jury still out.
   2. AEMO 4QCY2025 Scorecard confirms this – strong growth in the pipeline across Australia, but not enough generation getting through FID.
   3. We are making progress. Great to see this week AEMO QED 4QCY2025 talk about RE being >50% for 4QCY2025 and the result was a near halving of electricity prices.
   4. And a lot of the media framing of the heatwaves of the last few weeks in South East Australia was how CER and solar is increasing grid resilience and providing power when most needed. A very positive reframing.

Other CEF priorities in 2026:

1. Fuel Tax Credits
   1. Re FTC - In December 2025, Battery-electric heavy duty trucks crossed 50% of new sales in China. That is profound for accelerating the electrification of everything story (think passenger EV adoption, energy independence, a $50bn pa onshoring on energy supply into Australia) and for CEF's work in diesel fuel rebate reform, give we need to embrace this, rather than keep providing an $11bn imported diesel fuel subsidy headwind to decarbonisation of mining and trucking.
2. Safeguard mechanism review
3. Green metal exports
4. Government capital deployment still too slow

And it wouldn't be a talk with CEF without talking about China, again and again! The new installs out for December 2025 this week are mind-blowing, again.

Spark Club Podcast Ep 63 -21st Nov 2025 Hosted by Grant McDowell and guest this week, Tim Buckley Highlights BESS deployments booming

• Batteries are the biggest disruptive force in global energy markets in 2025. Australia becomes world's third-largest utility battery market.
• Rho Motion reports Grid-scale BESS market saw 12.7GWh of new capacity enter operations globally in October 2025, +29% y-o-y. Meanwhile, global YTD deployments have reached 156GWh, +38% yoy.
• China led new operational capacity with 8.8GWh of utility scale BESS added in the Oct 2025 month – double what Australia will do this year – including one giga-scale vanadium flow battery.

Powering Past Coal Alliance South Korea announces Powering Past Coal Alliance at COP30 in Brazil. Has consequences for Australia's future coal exports. Lowlights China RE capacity installs slow significantly

• China ended a major VRE incentive program in May 2025, which saw a massive pull forward of solar and wind installs, with a world record month of >90GW installed just in the month of May 2025, meaning ytd installs were double in 5MCY2025.
• Fast forward the following 5 months, and new RE installs have been running at just 12GW per month (still a monthly run rate double what Australia will do this year).
• The silver lining is that national emissions in China are still 10 months into 2025 down yoy, having possibly peaked back in March 2024. Steel and cement production in the month of Oct'2025 was down 5-10% yoy, so despite strong electricity demand driving thermal power generation +5% yoy, emissions overall for the month of Oct 2025 were down yoy.

Tomago Closure Threats

• Rio Tinto is threatening to close Tomago aluminium smelter due to their inability to access cheap coal power beyond 2028.
• It is great to hear that the Federal Govt. is closely evaluating a financial intervention that provides a permanent decarbonisation solution that is globally cost competitive – but will, if delivered, represent a major shift away from the "free markets" doctrine of Australia over the last few decades that has guttered our manufacturing and value-add sectors.

COP31 goes to Türkiye.

What does it mean for Bowen and Adelaide. Main Story – Whyalla steel works

• CEF released our new report A Strategy for Whyalla: Enabling the Transformation and Decarbonisation of the Steelworks
• Leveraging targeted industry and climate policy to support a first-of-a-kind Australian capital deployment into firmed RE to produce GH2 & then green iron.
• Our report discusses the challenges facing SA in terms of energy supply pathways – there is a fork in the road ahead, methane lock-in or going the higher cost, higher risk GH2 route that aligns with the global need to drive decarbonisation and hence in building a commercial deployment to show how this can be done. This comes with all the risks of very slow GH2 deployments globally to-date and the still very high capital costs, and FOAK risks. So we would suggest a cautious evaluation of this, whilst pursuing policies of no regrets now.
• We recommend the SA Govt:
• Build magnetite mining capacities – high quality, low impurity
• Build the enabling RE firming and grid infrastructure ahead of demand
• Build a green steel EAF
• Build downstream steel fabrication capacities for domestic market needs
• Underwrite FOAF semi-commercial technology deployments in the Australian context – Calix ZESTY was one of our picks, but they are going to Kwinana WA thanks to a major new deal this week with Rio Tinto, Element Zero and DryFlow?
• Prepare the ground work for a GH2 powered DRI value-add plant as phase 2 to say reach FID in 5 years time Meanwhile, keep putting bandaids on the end of life steel works to elk out another few years.

All of this gives clarity to the workforce and communities that they wont be left behind, but avoids locking in unproven GH2 till smaller FOAK deployments are proven up e.g. Also, news on Orica's 50MW at Newcastle here in NSW. What's coming up?

• Next WED Tim is in Canberra joining ATSE for a diesel fuel rebate conference in Canberra.
• In early December Tim is joining the NSW Government delegation for a battery forum in Guangdong China – this is a sister state arrangement going for 46 years now.

End

Spark Club Podcast recorded on 31 October 2025 Highlights BESS deployments booming in Australia

• Batteries are the biggest disruptive force in global energy markets in 2025. Australia becomes world's third-largest utility battery market.
• Australia has overtaken the UK to rank behind China and the US in utility-scale battery capacity, with 14GW/37GWh of projects at or nearing financial close.
• Rystad Energy estimates the Australian pipeline of battery projects jumped 45GW in one year from 109GW in August 2024 to 154GW now.
• Meanwhile Minister Bowen is rightly crowing about the >100,000 home battery installs so far.
• Worth noting the world's largest hybrid BESS by MASDAR in the UAE, a 5GW solar and 19GWh BESS designed to provide 1GW of 24/7 power supply commenced construction this week.
• And AEMO's new 3Q2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report reveals that average wholesale electricity prices across the National Electricity Market, fell to $87/MWh, down 27% on the same quarter last year. AEMO says the surge in battery storage – up an average 461MW in the evening peaks – clearly had an impact on other peaking generation sources, with gas fired generation down 11%. All of these factors also helped the renewable share hit a new 3Q high of 42.7%, nearly 10% higher than the Q3 average of 39.3% last year. You'd never know this reading the mainstream climate science denialist media!
• AEMO's Quarterly Energy dynamics report had great news for Minister Bowen.

China

• The September 2025 electricity generation statistics for China show a ⬇️ 5.4% yoy decline in coal and gas generation for the September month, and a ⬇️ 1.2% yoy decline in the first nine months.
• And with cement production volumes -5.2% yoy YTD 2025, and crude steel volumes -2.9% yoy YTD 2025, that is consistent with Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)'s suggestion that China's national emissions peaked back in March 2024.
• Rho Motion reports China's EV sales in the first nine months of 2025 are 9.0m, +24% yoy, largely in line with the global rate of +26% yoy (given China is 61% of global EV sales in 2025 YTD), while China's EV exports are booming.

Lowlights Sanjeev Gupta strikes Australia again, and again, this time InfraBuild

• InfraBuild reported a net loss of $250m in FY2025 and is likely trading while insolvent, thanks to Gupta have borrowed $1.07bn of really expensive debt against it.
• Beyond time ASIC acted against directors.

Tomago Closure Threats

• Rio Tinto is threatening to close Tomago aluminium smelter due to their inability to access cheap coal power beyond 2028.
• Oliver Yates has proposed a simple government intervention to ensure low cost zero emissions firmed #RE to permanently solve this problem.
• We cant afford to have every multinational corporate lining up for $100-1000m subsidies, blackmailing the Federal Government trying valiantly to implement their FMIA, 82% RE by 2030 and Green Metal Exports policies.

The Methane Gas lobby is out in force

• The NSW and SA governments are out lobbying on behalf of SANTOS, trying to force Narrabri gas development through again, and again.
• Meanwhile the SA government announced another $17m taxpayer subsidy for new methane gas developments in SA.
• BlueScope is leading a manufacturing lobby group calling for more gas development.
• The obvious solution is to accelerate electrification of everything so we permanently remove our addiction to fossil fuels.

Main Story – Fossil fuel subsidies

• It was Tim's pleasure to met former US Vice President Al Gore at the IGCC annual investor conference, and then for a follow up private session hosted by Wollemi and SEC with Australia's largest Asset Owners.
• Al Gore had Tim when he demanded governments should stop giving fossil fuel companies subsidies!
• Al Gore stamina and determination is seriously impressive, he spoke for over an hour at IGCC then gave a lunch presentation and then another afternoon presentation.
• CEF continues to advocate for the Federal Government to reform the diesel fuel rebate, a $12bn annual subsidy for expensive high emissions imported diesel.
• It was brilliant to have Matt Kean, Chair of the CCA repeatedly call out this massive $12bn annual subsidy by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, the 15th largest budget expense item, and promote CEF's Transition Tax Incentive idea to instead incentivise the mining majors to invest in electrification and decarbonisation.
• CEF will be working with a growing coalition of aligned voices from CANA, LEAN, ACTU and Fortescue et al to push for this long overdue reform, particularly given it would be perfect announceable for Minister Bowen if and when Australia gets the COP31 presidency!

What's coming up?

• Next week Tim is joining the ACBC for a full day discussion on Australia-China Energy Transition Dialogue then 2 days with the Climate Capital Forum in its third Parliament House delegation this year to discuss key issues in cleantech – YFYS, diesel fuel rebate and getting public capital deployments accelerated.
• Then in December Tim is joining the NSW Government for a battery forum in Guangdong China.

We invited Killian Daly, CEO of Energy Tag, on to the Spark Club podcast on the 10th October. We recorded the podcast in London at an industry event.

The reason for having Killian on is it's an important time for ensuring the policy settings are right for updating the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Scope 2 Guidance. The discussion paper will be released next week, with a two month public consultation period.

It's a great conversation about a common sense approach, grounded in the physics of energy, and how we need to make it accessible to everyone, even my Mum and Killian's Dad.

Everyone in the cleantech industry in Australia, and around the globe, is advised to follow this important update to GHG Protocal Scope 2. The changes will deterime how future large corporate emissions will be reported. The accounting standards need to be updated to meet the needs of ongoing deployment of wind, solar and batteries into the 2030's and beyond.

You can follow Killian Daly on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/killianpdaly/

EnergyTag link - https://energytag.org/

GHG Protocol Scope 2 link - https://ghgprotocol.org/scope-2-guidance

Please share this episode with your network. Thanks

The team at Spark Club.