Stop the World

How should middle powers such as Australia and Canada maximise their strategic clout in an age of increasingly assertive great powers?

Raquel Garbers spent nearly three decades in Canadian defence, security and intelligence, including a stint as Director General for Strategic Defence Policy at the Canadian Department of National Defence, where she served as the principal architect of Canada’s defence policy. As an ASPI Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Raquel brought that experience to last week’s ASPI Defence Conference, where she made a memorable contribution on the role of middle powers in an age of uncertainty.

Raquel has watched up close what Donald Trump has meant for the US-Canada relationship. But she's clear-eyed about the limits of what democratic middle powers can achieve without US alignment, and unsentimental about the fact that great powers are great powers. Her answer to that challenge is what she calls "coalitions of the capable": flexible, fast and fierce groupings of like-minded states that can maximise their collective agency.

It's a realistic and pragmatic framework for navigating a world that looks very different from the one the post-war order was built for—and a conversation that reflects the enormous importance of these questions for the fates of middle powers such as Australia.

Do intelligence agencies need to rethink how they deliver assessments to political leaders in the AI age? That's the question at the heart of a new ASPI report, ‘Reading the Room: Redesigning Intelligence Product for the AI Age’.

Today STW sits down with its author to dig into the issue. ASPI senior fellow Chris Taylor joins FiveCast co-founder Duane Rivett—whose firm provides open-source intelligence to the security community—to talk through what needs to change and why. The report argues that while Australia's intelligence community has invested heavily in collection with strong results, the way assessments are delivered to decision-makers hasn't kept pace.

The conversation covers changing information consumption habits across generations; how AI can adapt and even personalise intelligence products for different leaders and officials; the prospect of intelligence chatbots that can answer policymakers' questions in real time; and the enduring importance of human expert judgement. They also address the risks: losing nuance in a business defined by uncertainty, and the accountability gap when a machine — like a self-driving car — can't be held liable for getting it wrong.

Read the report, ‘Reading the Room: Redesigning Intelligence Product for the AI Age’.

Nicole Giles is Deputy Director of Policy and Partnerships at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service—and she visited ASPI in Canberra to talk through what she calls the three Vs: the velocity, variety, and volume of threats facing Canada and its allies right now. AI-accelerated disinformation that once took weeks to develop can now be deployed in seconds. Violent extremism investigations that once unfolded over months now move from online radicalisation to potential threat action in days. And the sheer number of actors and threat types is growing.

Nicole covers foreign interference and election meddling, economic security and IP theft, the rise of youth involvement in extremism, and a disturbing new category CSIS has had to formally define, nihilistic violent extremism—groups like the Maniac Murder Cult and 764, whose goal is simply violent chaos. She also talks about the “swords and shields” of AI for intelligence agencies, and why Five Eyes cooperation—including a specific Australia-Canada collaboration on over-the-horizon radar—is more important than ever. CSIS's annual report is, as STW notes, a good read, and Nicole is a compelling example of why public engagement has become a national security strategy in itself.

Read the CSIS annual Public Report 2025 here.

This week, ASPI hosted a fireside conversation with Anne Neuberger, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Strategic Advisor to Cisco. Anne was Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor from 2021 to 2025.

The conversation focused on cyber security and the impact of AI on geopolitics and cyber resilience. Coming off the back of President Trump’s Executive Order on AI and reports that Australia had been given access to Anthropic’s Mythos model, we decided the conversation was an important one to share with our Stop the World listeners.

Hosted by ASPI’s Executive Director, Justin Bassi, he and Anne canvassed the game changing role of artificial intelligence for cyber offence and defence, why democracies need to be the ones to set AI standards, and the lessons that can be learned from our 5G and TikTok experiences when it comes to global AI adoption.

This event was held in partnership with Cisco.

Artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly central to warfighting. And the firms that build it are critical partners to militaries around the world. Once such company is Britain’s Faculty AI, whose head of defence Andrew van der Lem joins us this week.

The conversation covers electronic warfare and the competition to dominate the electromagnetic spectrum; how AI can identify, classify, and act on signals no human could process in time; and the acceleration of military decision-making—a factor in US operational superiority during the recent war in the Middle East. 

Andrew also draws on lessons from Ukraine, where new technology hits the battlefield every few weeks and doctrine has to adapt in real time. And he describes a major NATO exercise Faculty took part in — preparing allied forces for a potential Russian invasion of Estonia, run out of a disused London tube station. Finally, Andrew addresses the values question: why Faculty believes tech companies have a responsibility to engage with defence AI rather than leave it to others.

Today we’re joined by Kanishka Narayan, Britain’s Minister for AI and Online Safety, who visited Australia last week to sign an MOU on cooperation between Britain’s illustrious AI Security Institute and Australia’s new AI Safety Institute.

Kanishka, whose previous roles include a stint in tech investment, was described in a recent British tech publication as a minister who “really gets AI”—and it shows. He discusses his strong view on the need to put democratic values into the development of AI and to ensure it preserves human agency and trust. He discusses Pope Leo XIV’s recent encyclical on AI, the need for middle powers to establish places for themselves in the global AI industry, and his conviction that AI is going to transform all aspects of life, notably our economies and particularly employment—all for the better if we get the policies right.

ASPI this week released our Cost of Defence report which, as always, has taken a thorough and rigorous look at every dollar spent on defence in the budget. And to help us make sense of the $66.4 billion that Australia will be spending, we’re joined by our director of defence strategy, Mike Hughes.

Mike is one of the report’s main authors along with Marc Ablong, Courtney Stewart and Linus Cohen. Their conclusion, in sum, is that Australia is “buying a future and is doing so by accepting that the ADF will be able to do less today”.

Mike puts the dollars in context, welcoming the lift in spending but describing a program of approvals and spending that remains too slow. He explains the mismatch between rhetoric that the strategic environment is dire and getting worse, and reality is that the corresponding urgency isn’t there in the investment.

He talks about Australia’s recent spending growth compared with other countries in the region including China, and the welcome boost to workforce but the decline in acquisition and sustainment spending, which will be an issue for the current force. He also walks us through the byzantine ways of calculating spending as a percentage of GDP and, most importantly, what actually needs to be done now, such as approving money for integrated air and missile defence and the so-called connective tissue that ensures readiness.

Links:

Read the cost of Defence: ASPI Defence budget brief 2026-2027 here

Yalkun Uluyol, China researcher at Human Rights Watch, joins us to discuss the repression of Uyghurs and other minority groups in China — and why human rights abuses are struggling to stay on the global agenda.

Yalkun has spent years documenting abuses in Xinjiang, including mass surveillance, arbitrary detention, forced labour and the suppression of Uyghur identity and culture. He also brings a deeply personal perspective: his own father has been arbitrarily jailed.

The conversation explores how the Chinese government is trying to reshape China’s global image, portraying Xinjiang as stable and harmonious despite extensive reporting by Human Rights Watch and others. Yalkun also discusses Beijing’s influence in international institutions, the intimidation of other countries, and the growing difficulty of conducting China research.

At a time when wars, economic shocks, great-power competition and artificial intelligence dominate global attention, Yalkun makes the case for why human rights advocacy still matters — and how governments, researchers and citizens can keep these issues in view.

The episode also looks at forced labour in Xinjiang and its links to global supply chains, from batteries to Labubu dolls.

Benedikta von Seherr-Thoß is Managing Director for Peace, Security and Defence at the European External Action Service—the European Commission’s diplomatic arm. As the EEAS official responsible for bringing to life the recently signed EU-Australia Strategic and Defence Partnership, Benedikta visited Canberra and Sydney this week for talks with Australian officials.

Benedikta joined us to talk about the partnership, about why Europe and Australia need to work more closely together given the very global nature and impact of security threats, and about the US-Europe relationship, the war in Ukraine and the implications of it all the Indo-Pacific, notably Taiwan.

Europe is embarked on a generational project to rearm, with big increases to defence budgets and an outreach to likeminded parts around the world in the face of the threat from Russia and Donald Trump’s scepticism about helping with European security. Benedikta shares her views on Australian companies’ access to the large buckets of funding such as the Security Action for Europe or SAFE mechanism, and the reforms underway for a more coordinated European defence industry and better procurement processes.

Links:

The Australia-European Union Security and Defence Partnership

Read Bart Hogeveen’s explainer on the EU–Australia Security and Defence Partnership

Last week saw the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. It was dominated by trade and investment.

Ahead of the summit we spoke to Matt Turpin, who was director for China in the White House National Security Council during Trump’s first term.

Matt, a former Army officer and now a senior advisor at Palantir Technologies and visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, talked about what to expect from the visit but, more importantly, provided his perspective on the underlying shifts in the US-China economic relationship and the long-term trends that will dominate international trade for the years to come.

Washington’s move away from pushing Beijing to adhere to fair and rules-based trade, towards what’s known as “managed trade”, is exemplified by a proposal for a Board of Trade which Matt explains. He lays out a way forward for rule-abiding countries to trade with one another while diversifying away from China.

Matt discusses the debate about whether to decouple or derisk and explains his idea of disentanglement between the US and China for sensitive materials and technologies. This interview is a must-listen for anyone interested in economic security, global trade and the impact of great power competition on all nations.

Check out Matt’s Substack at https://chinaarticles.substack.com/