Stop the World

Today on Stop the World, ASPI executive director Justin Bassi and David Wroe talk about Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Australia and the latest news in artificial intelligence.

Japan is one of Australia’s closest friends—and the friendship is deepening. Justin and David talk about the significance of the relationships amid global geopolitical turmoil. Takaichi is leading her country through the next phase in its strategic renewal, with big plans to grow Japan’s critical technology and defence industries, and a more muscular posture in the region as it faces Chinese assertiveness.

They discuss the economic security declaration signed by Takaichi and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese; ASPI’s new report calling for a look at Japanese submarines to fill any potential capability gap in the AUKUS optimal pathway; and the significance of the Mogami frigate agreement.

Finally they discuss the news that the Trump administration is considering reviewing new AI models before they can be released in a major reversal of its low-regulation stance. That move follows the revelation that leading AI company Anthropic withheld its latest model Mythos because it is such a powerful tool for hackers.

Why should we care about the Indo-Pacific? It’s a question sufficiently packed with vitality that Ray Powell and Jim Carouso have for the past two years devoted a weekly podcast to finding the answers.

Ray, a former US Air Force Colonel posted as Defence Attache in Canberra, and Jim, longtime diplomat who served as Charge d’Affaires to Australia, join STW this week to unravel all the ways the Indo-Pacific region remains the strategic keystone that is likely to shape the course of the 21st century.

We cover a lot of ground—the future of US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and what that means for America’s friends and allies; Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping; China’s project to become the regional hegemon and what that means for the many other countries that call the Indo-Pacific home.

Ray and Jim also share their thoughts on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Australia next week, opportunities for economic security cooperation, deepening partnerships with other key Indo-Pacific nations such as the Philippines; the ongoing risks in the South China Sea and the nomination of former Congressman David Brat as US Ambassador to Australia.

Ray and Jim have spent most of their careers focussed on the Indo-Pacific region. And their level headed, calm, excellent judgement comes through in this conversation.

Watch Ray and Jim’s podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@IPPodcast

Critical minerals and rare earths are atomic marvels — and geopolitical nightmares. They’re vital in high-end technologies including defence equipment but are traded in markets that are all but broken, with China dominating overwhelming shares of production.

This week, Madeleine King, Minister for Resources and Minister for Northern Australia, joins Stop the World to talk about the challenges Australia and its international friends face in building some kind of functioning market to ensure we don’t face supply crises that could threaten our economies or security.

Speaking from the sidelines of ASPI’s third annual Darwin Dialogue on critical minerals, Madeleine talks about the failure of the market, the need for intervention, what connected supply chains will look like in the future, the kinds of cooperation Australia is pursuing with Japan, the United States, Korea, Canada and Europe, and the vital importance of trust. She discusses China’s own highly interventionist approach that enabled it to dominate the market, Australia’s own strengths, global trends towards resource and economic nationalism, and the wake up call last year when China forced a partial tariffs backdown from the US by threatening to cut off vital critical minerals supplies.

ASPI’s head and deputy head of defence strategy, Mike Hughes and Courtney Stewart, join us to dissect Australia’s new National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Plan.

It’s the right strategy, but is there enough money, even with the welcome boost? And how does Australia become operationally self-reliant without chasing the fool’s dream of self-sufficiency?

Mike and Courtney share their views on the changing strategic environment, the US alliance, the state of the region, and new capability priorities such as drones and integrated air and missile defence. We also discuss the lessons from Ukraine and Iran, the importance of defending our interests well beyond our shores, and the all-important question of AUKUS.

These are among the biggest questions facing Australia, and Mike and Courtney are among the best brains around to help you digest this busy week.

Read more analysis on the NDS by ASPI staff: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/2026-national-defence-strategy-views-from-aspi-analysts/

Read a new report 'Light speed weapons? Directed energy and the future of the ADF': https://www.aspi.org.au/report/light-speed-weapons-directed-energy-and-the-future-of-the-adf/

For regular updates on defence and security across the Indo-Pacific, subscribe to ASPI's Fault Lines digest on Substack: https://aspidefence.substack.com/

Want 20 episodes of Black Mirror in a one hour podcast? You’ve come to the right place. After a big week in artificial intelligence—including news of Anthropic’s secret supercyberweapon—we’re joined by ASPI’s Fergus Ryan and Bethany Allen to talk about AI in China.

Fergus and Bethany explain the findings of their recent report, The party’s AI: How China’s new AI systems are reshaping human rights. For the Chinese government, AI governance is regime governance. The team explain automation of the Chinese justice system and the implications for the rights of defendants; predictive law enforcement; “ambient censorship” which creates an immersive information environment tailored to party ideology; and surveillance using AI that enables authorities to track people’s momentary emotional reactions.

They discuss embedding authoritarian values into the technology; the implications for countries importing those AI models—which are attractive because they are open source and therefore cheaper—and China’s determination to shape global AI standards in line with its non-democratic interests.

Read the report 'The party's AI': https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-partys-ai-how-chinas-new-ai-systems-are-reshaping-human-rights/

To stay across developments in AI, technology and security, subscribe to ASPI's Cyber & Tech Digest: https://aspicts.substack.com/

Back by popular demand, Florence Gaub joins David Wroe to dissect the latest global developments.

Florence is Director of Research at the NATO Defense College and an expert in strategic foresight. She shares her key takeaways on Iran and views on the state of NATO, and offers frank criticism of Europe’s underspending on defence and infrastructure.

She discusses how the Iran conflict, following Ukraine and Covid, has underscored the interconnectedness of security, economics, geography, energy and politics. And she talks about interpreting weak signals, the idea of polycrisis, and the impact of fragile dependencies and choke points.

Florence and Dave discuss Donald Trump and the challenges of forecasting when individuals as opposed to systems are the prevailing influence over policy. And they also have fun discussing the speculative newspaper ‘North Star’ that Florence and her colleagues released earlier this year for the Munich Security Conference - listen out for the elephants!

You can find that newspaper here

The Iran war is shaping as an historic geopolitical moment. Regime change looks increasingly unlikely, with the United States—and possibly Israel—preparing to settle for grinding down Iran’s ability to pose an external threat. The majority of Iranian people who loathe the regime and advocates around the world pushing for freedom are preparing for disappointment.

To talk through these perspectives, STW is joined today by Nos Hosseini, spokeswoman for the Iranian Women’s Association in Australia.

Nos’s parents fled Iran when she was a small child. She now advocates for the rights of the Iranian people from Australia. Nos explains how she and most of the Iranian community see external pressure including military action as the most realistic way to bring down the regime, given the brutal crackdowns we’ve seen in the past against any uprising. She describes the horrors inflicted upon Iranians who stand up to the theocracy, the current political dynamics, and the options for countries like Australia to expand pressure through measures such as Magnitsky sanctions against human rights abusers.

Nos also speaks frankly about her own family’s journey, the threats and intimidation they’ve endured, and the particular dehumanisation that is felt by Iranian women.

Donald Trump’s threats against Greenland spurred Europe to assert itself in ways it has never done before, says former Danish diplomat, national security adviser and top newspaper editor Bo Lidegaard. Six European NATO members went so far as to send troops to the autonomous island territory.

Hot on the heels of European President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Australia to sign trade and security agreements, Bo joins Stop the World to talk about the parlous state of global affairs and how Australia and Europe can work together to shape events for the better.

Europe lacks the defence industrial base, the energy security and the technology to truly back up its strong diplomatic posture, Bo says—at least for now. Closer cooperation with countries such as Australia are one way that Europe is expanding its strategic options.

Pulling together the many strategic threads dominating global headlines, Bo talks discusses Russia’s war against Ukraine, global supply chain fragility, energy and climate change, European innovation and self reliance, and the Iran war’s turbocharging effect on other geostrategic trends.

For more on the EU-Australia security and defence agreement, read ASPI's latest Explainer by Bart Hogeveen:https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-eu-australia-security-and-defence-agreement-not-a-pact-but-a-partnership/

David Wroe and ASPI executive director Justin Bassi discuss the prospects for steering the Iran war towards a tolerable end that means neither a years-long quagmire nor an abrupt closure that hands Tehran a tacit win.

Three weeks in, the Strait of Hormuz is the keystone. How do the US and other countries reopen the key energy route and stop Tehran from holding it in perpetuity as leverage over an anxious world? What are the thresholds the US and Israel need to reach on destroying Iran’s military capacity, killing its leadership and curbing its nuclear program in order to declare mission accomplished?

And whatever frustrations US partners might be feeling about Donald Trump’s “excursion”, how do we muster some semblance of democratic cooperation to signal to the world’s autocrats that the West can come together to confront global challenges?

Three weeks into Donald Trump’s “Epic Fury” operation in Iran, STW speaks with Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear strategy and non-proliferation expert who runs the Arms Control Wonk blog and directs the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute in California.

Jeffrey and David discuss the difficulty of ending Iran’s nuclear program, the United States’ strategy, the hovering spectre of regime change, and the degrading of Iran’s missile capabilities and possibility of their reconstitution.

Jeffrey explains the challenge of locking down proliferation of an 80-year-old technology and his view that diplomacy and deterrence need to play hefty roles. And he discusses the culture and psychology of risk in nuclear deterrence in the 21st century. Finally Jeffrey gives his views on China’s nuclear expansion and the dangers that follow the end of the US-Russia New START arms control pact last month.

Jeffrey has clear views that don’t always chase convention but are based on his own legwork analysing open source research such as images from commercial satellite pictures.

Links: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/