Stop the World

As Iran’s government flails in response to Israel’s attacks, and with Donald Trump mulling a two-week window for Tehran to negotiate an end to its nuclear program, speculation is turning to how the dramatic events will reshape Iran’s politics, nearly half a century since the Islamic Republic was created.

Kylie Moore-Gilbert is a Melbourne-based academic, author and political scientist with deep expertise on Iran and the Middle East. In 2018 she was wrongfully arrested by the Iranian regime and went on to spend more than two years in harrowing conditions in Iranian prisons. 

Dr Moore-Gilbert shares her thoughts on the political shifts already taking place; the prospects for a popular uprising; implications of a military-led government; the byzantine nature of Iranian politics and how the various factions might be empowered or diminished by Israel’s attacks; the role of the nuclear program in Iranian politics and society; the widespread dislike for the regime after years of economic stagnation, and social and religious oppression; and her own reflections on the turmoil as someone who suffered at the hands of the brutal regime.

https://www.kyliemooregilbert.com

https://www.awada.com.au

Please note, this episode was filmed as a video interview and is available on ASPI's YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/z3V_t8znuIM

On 4 June, ASPI was pleased to host Hon Dr Billy Joseph MP in Canberra for our 2025 Defence Conference 'Preparedness and Resilience.'

Dr Joseph is Papua New Guinea's Minister for Defence, and the Deputy Party Leader of the Social Democratic Party. 

Following his impactful speech on Pacific security and the Australia-Papua New Guinea relationship, the Minister sat down with David Wroe to discuss the Australia-Papua New Guinea defence treaty and the strategic importance of continuing to grow the relationship 50 years on from Papua New Guinea's independence. They also discuss how the theme of the conference, preparedness and resilience, applies to Papua New Guinea and its economy, as well as those of its Pacific neighbours.

Please note, this episode was filmed as a video interview and is available on ASPI's Youtube channel here: https://youtu.be/XvR4P2Ppmok

This week ASPI was delighted to host Dr Kori Schake in Canberra for our 2025 Defence Conference ‘Preparedness and Resilience’.

Kori is a senior fellow and director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. She’s held roles in the State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Council, served as an adviser to the legendary Senator John McCain and written five books with another on the way.

While she was in town, David Wroe sat down with her on the sidelines of the conference to discuss Trump’s foreign policy and whether US relations with the rest of the world will be permanently restructured.

They also discuss the export of MAGA ideology, Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, US-China relations and the US-Australia alliance.

ASPI this week released our annual Cost of Defence report, which assesses how Australia’s investment in defence matches the strategic challenges the nation faces. 

In this special episode, ASPI’s executive director Justin Bassi runs through some of the key points of the report: how much we need to be spending, how fast, and on which capabilities. The strategic environment in which 2 percent of GDP was normalised as a benchmark is long behind us, Justin says. A “business‑as‑usual approach” is no longer enough.

Find ASPI's latest Cost of Defence report here: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-cost-of-defence-aspi-defence-budget-brief-2025-2026/

Many of the brightest minds in artificial intelligence believe models that are smarter than a human in every way will be built within a few years. Whether it turns out to be two years or 10, the changes will be epoch-making. Life will never be the same.

Today’s guest Connor Leahy is one of many AI experts who believe that far from ushering in an era of utopian abundance, superintelligent AI could kill us all. Connor is CEO of the firm Conjecture AI, a prominent advocate for AI safety and the lead author of the AI Compendium, which lays out how rapidly advancing AI could become an existential threat to humanity.

He discusses the Compendium’s thesis, the question of whether AGI will necessarily form its own goals, the risks of so-called autonomous AI agents which are increasingly a focus of the major AI labs, the need to align AI with human values, and the merits of forming a global Manhattan Project to achieve this task. He also talks about the incentives being created by the commercial and geopolitical races to reach AGI and the need for a grassroots movement of ordinary people raising AI risks with their elected representatives.

Control AI report on briefing UK MPs: https://leticiagarciamartinez.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-from-briefing-70

The AI Compendium is available here: https://www.thecompendium.ai/

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week initiated a conversation about a security partnership with Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese responded with a ‘maybe, sort of’.

To talk about this development and much more, we have Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, former adviser to two EU presidents and one of the world’s top experts on European foreign and strategic policy. Nathalie gives her thoughts on the link between European and Indo-Pacific security, the China-Russia relationship, the centrality of Ukraine to European security, and the best and worst possibilities for US support to Ukraine under Donald Trump.

Nathalie also outlines her (very useful) theory about ‘thick’ and ‘thin’ norms as foundations for international cooperation, and expands on a wonderful line she wrote recently in the Guardian about what it would take for Europe to pull itself together security-wise.

Wars are easy to start, hard to end and are often launched with political goals that are loftier than the planning and capabilities that are committed. In today’s episode, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London, talks about the “short war fallacy” and why strategists keep planning for quick victories when long and costly conflicts are demonstrably the norm.

Lawrence discusses Putin’s misjudged invasion of Ukraine, the way forward—and significant obstacles—for Kyiv, Moscow and Washington, other long conflicts around the globe including those in Africa and what Xi Jinping might be thinking about Taiwan.

He explains how mass remains a key factor in warfare, and the ways in which new technology and old realities converge to create layers in modern warfighting. He caps off with some thoughts on nuclear strategy and the recent flareup between India and Pakistan.

You can read Lawrence’s recent Foreign Affairs Article, “The Age of Forever Wars: Why Minister Strategy No Longer Delivers Victory” here:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/age-forever-wars

And read his substack here: https://substack.com/@lawrencefreedman454213

ASPI’s geospatial analyst Nathan Ruser reveals what he’s found by studying satellite imagery of the recent India-Pakistan clashes over Kashmir, in a special episode of Stop the World. This includes the use of images for disinformation in ways he hasn’t seen before in his years of poring over satellite pictures.

Alongside the military clashes, the Indian and Pakistani governments, and their respective supporters, have been battling in the information domain, a typical pattern that is becoming ever more competitive with new technology, especially generative artificial intelligence.

Nathan’s globally recognised skills as a geospatial analyst are put to full use in this episode that will be useful to anyone interested in South Asia, disinformation, deepfakes, AI and nuclear stability.

The war that has gripped Sudan for more than two years and cost 150,000 lives is a shifting mosaic of alliances and rivalries, lumped under two main groups. There’s the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force, led respectively by two men who were once allies but are now locked in a titanic power struggle that has displaced 13 million people and is causing widespread famine.

Today we’re joined by Ahmed Kodouda, a humanitarian policy and operations expert who’s worked with NGOs, governments, and international institutions around the world. He also served as a senior advisor to Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government following the country’s democratic uprising in 2019.

Ahmed explains the complexities of the conflict, the groups involved, the background, the impact on the country’s roughly 50 million people, the influence of outside countries in particular the United Arab Emirates, and the inadequate response of the international community.

Show notes

Foreign Affairs article, “Sudan is unravelling”, by Mai Hassan and Ahmed Kodouda

After Pakistan-based militants murdered more than two dozen Indian tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir, India retaliated by striking nine sites it says housed “terrorist infrastructure”. Pakistan in turn says it shot down several Indian fighter planes.

 In this special snap episode, ASPI Resident Senior Fellow Raji Pillai Rajagopalan gives us her insights on whether the two nuclear armed arch rivals will bring the crisis temperature down and avoid the ultimate nightmare—escalation that goes nuclear.

Mentioned in this episode: 

India and Pakistan must manage escalation after Pahalgam attack, by Raji Rajagopalan: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/india-and-pakistan-must-manage-escalation-after-pahalgam-attack/

X thread by Nathan Ruser: https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1920076797498273961