Talk Evidence - excess deaths, the ONS, and the healthcare crisis

In this week's episode, we're focusing on covid and the ongoing crisis in the NHS.

Helen Macdonald, Juan Franco and Joseph Ross cast their evidence seeking eyes over research into outcomes as well as the workload of doctors.

Firstly, Joe tells us about a new big data study into longer term outcomes after mild covid-19, how those ongoing symptoms relate to long covid, and how often they resolve themselves.

Juan looks back to his homeland to see what Argentina which was very early to offer children vaccinations against covid-19. He tells us how a new study design can help understand how effective different combinations of vaccines were.

Joe has a Danish registry paper, which links people's employment status after a MI, explains how that gives us an insight into morbidity following that event.

Helen looks at a new analysis which outlines the concept of "time needed to treat" - a measure of how much time it would take a clinician to actually carry out a guideline - and you'd be surprised how much GP time would be swallowed by a "brief" intervention to reduce inactivity in their patients.

Finally, the data on excess mortality in the UK has been up for debate recently - our health minister calling into question the Office of National Statistic's data. We hear from Nazrul Islam, Associate professor of medical statistics, advisor to the ONS and BMJ research editor, who has some bad news for him.

Reading list:

Long covid outcomes at one year after mild SARS-CoV-2 infection

https://www.bmj.com/content/380/bmj-2022-072529

Effectiveness of mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, and BBIBP-CorV vaccines against infection and mortality in children in Argentina, during predominance of delta and omicron covid-19 variants

https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj-2022-073070

Guidelines should consider clinicians’ time needed to treat

https://www.bmj.com/content/380/bmj-2022-072953

Expanding the measurement of overdiagnosis in the context of disease precursors and risk factors

https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2023/01/10/bmjebm-2022-112117

Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137.abstract