TALKING POLITICS

David and Helen talk to Nick Timothy, former chief of staff in Downing Street under Theresa May, about the future for Boris Johnson's government. Is he now safe from leadership challenges? Can he hold together the coalition that won the 2019 election? Is Keir Starmer the one under pressure? Plus we discuss where the next big destabilising threat to this government might come from: Scotland, Northern Ireland, the EU, China?

Talking Points:

Is Johnson’s political position more secure now?

• If the government can end on a high note with the vaccine rollout, that might be what people remember.

Boris probably doesn’t want to be an austerity prime minister.

• Sunak wants to get the economy moving and send some signals to the market that there’s fiscal responsibility.
• Sunak may also want to create a fiscal dividing line with Labour.
• But without financial market pressure, it’s hard to see how Sunak is going to win this argument about fiscal probity.
• Political reality, and new voters, may push the Tories toward more spending against the instincts of many MPs.

Starmer still faces serious structural problems: Labour is in trouble in Scotland and the increasing importance of cultural issues create problems for Labour in the Red Wall.

• Although the government has made mistakes with the pandemic, public opinion has been fairly understanding.
• Starmer hasn’t really been able to talk about anything other than the pandemic.

Who is in the biggest trouble in Scotland?

• Johnson faces big issues around the union, but in terms of electoral outcomes, it’s probably Starmer.
• What would happen if a government without an English majority has to act as an English government again due to a crisis? 
• Johnson is particularly unpopular in Scotland. 

The Tories are worried about the union, but there aren’t obvious solutions. 

• Northern Ireland is at the center of these problems. 

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Tom McTague in the Atlantic, ‘Britain’s pandemic story can still be rewritten’
• Nick Timothy in The Telegraph

Further Learning:

• Are MPs out of sync with their voters? 
• What is the Union? 
• On Johnson’s unpopularity in Scotland
• More on the Northern Irish Protocol 

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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David talks to Bronwen Maddox, Director of the Institute for Government, about how well the Johnson government has performed over the past year of the pandemic. There have been some successes - the furlough scheme, vaccines - and plenty of failures - education policy, health outcomes. But which were the key choices? Who can claim the credit? And where does the blame really lie? Plus we discuss how much personality still matters in political decision-making.

Talking Points:

What has the government done well over the last year?

• It got financial support to a lot of people, surprisingly quickly.
• Building this infrastructure was inadvertent—it was for Universal Credit. 

Vaccines have been heralded as a success story; can the government really claim credit?

• It has been funneling money to some of the groups that were successful.
• The government did a good job in buying vaccines and choosing where to invest.
• In the rollout, you get something analogous to test and trace. Much of this is being done through the NHS, which makes it easier.

What went the most wrong?

• There were at least 20,000 care home deaths in the first few months. And just about half of the deaths have happened since mid-November. These both look avoidable.
• The education mistakes were disastrous. 

A case often made against this government is that one of their key problems is timing. 

• Johnson’s instinct to delay a decision in the middle of uncertainty might in other circumstances be more positive, but so many times the delay has been damaging. 

The government says it’s been following the science, but science is often uncertain too.

• It’s hard for politicians to communicate uncertainty.
• Still, people in the UK still trust scientists despite the government’s communications failures.

With coronavirus, Starmer opted for a politics of competence.

• If your opponents start doing something competently (ie the vaccine rollout), then what do you do?
• The politics of competence doesn’t get people fired up in the streets.
• People often take competence for granted. They want something on top of that.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• What Does Jeremy Think? By Suzanne Heywood

Further Learning: 

• Bronwen’s recent report, ‘Coronavirus: no going back to normal’
• Covid chaos: How the UK handled the coronavirus crisis, from the Guardian
• ‘How the UK boosted its vaccine manufacturing capacity,’ from the FT
• The latest on the vaccine rollout

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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In this extra episode David catches up with Thant Myint-U to discuss the latest developments in Burma (Myanmar), following the overthrow of Aung San Suu Kyi's government. What prompted the generals to act? What do the protestors want? And what does it mean for the future of Burmese democracy? Thant Myint-U is the author of The Hidden History of Burma.

Further Reading

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v41/n22/thant-myint-u/not-a-single-year-s-peace

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Myanmar-should-use-COVID-crisis-to-end-30-years-of-crony-capitalism

https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/myanmar-needs-to-reimagine-its-economic-future/

http://themimu.info/sites/themimu.info/files/documents/Policy_Note_Poverty_Food_Insecurity_Social_Protection_during_COVID-19_IFPRI_Nov2020.pdf

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For this first in our series looking at the future of the UK, we talk to the historian Colin Kidd about the origins of the Union and the ideas that underpin it. Is the island of Britain a natural territorial political unit? Is nationalism compatible with Unionism? What changed in the 1970s? Plus we discuss how the shifting character of the SNP has shaped the arguments for and against the Union.

Talking Points:

Historically, the Kings of England considered themselves rulers of the whole island.

• But any large community must be imagined. It’s inherently artificial.
• Those who have tried to impose unified rule over the island by force have historically struggled.
• England has served as a quasi-imperial power on the island.

The union in 1707 was a product of contingency, part of a succession crisis. 

• At the time, the real drama was Jacobitism, not the English versus the Scots.
• What united Britain in the 18th century is not so much positive factors, but an ongoing series of wars.

The height of British consciousness came during the two world wars.

• What happened in the 60s and 70s that made the union look less attractive?
• The 70s with the election of Thatcher are the crucial decade. 
• Asymmetrical devolution has been destabilizing for the union.

Secularization led to Scots moving away from private identities being linked to denominational allegiances to a broader, more secular national identity.

• The SNP in the 1930s had little traction; the communists were more influential.
• It’s only in the 1960s that the SNP made a breakthrough. 

For at least a time, there was a sense of coexistence between patriotism and Britishness.

• The BBC from the 1920s to 1970s helped cement an authentic sense of British nationhood.
• Labour played an important part of this story; British patriotism was tied to collective war experiences, the welfare state. When those things came under pressure in the 1970s, finding an outlet for union patriotism became more difficult.

The SNP is a curious hybrid: it includes hard-core nationalists, but also social democrats, like Sturgeon, who think the best way to preserve the welfare state in Scotland is by going it alone.

• The unionist/nationalist binary might not be helpful; arguably the most important binary is within the SNP itself. 

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Colin’s book, Union and Unionisms
• Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities
• Linda Colley, Britons
• The Guardian on the Labour Party’s new strategy 

Further Learning: 

• Sturgeon vs Salmond (from the New Statesman) 
• From Brexit to Scottish Independence

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:

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This is episode 1 of the new HISTORY OF IDEAS series from Talking Politics. To hear the remaining 11 episodes, please subscribe to History of Ideas!

Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s Discourse on Inequality (also known as the Second Discourse) tells the story of all human history to answer one simple question: how did we end up in such an unequal world? David explores the steps Rousseau traces in the fall of humankind and asks whether this is a radical alternative to the vision offered by Hobbes or just a variant on it. Is Rousseau really such a nice philosopher?

Free online version of text

Recommended version to purchase

Going deeper…

• Leo Damrosch, Jean Jacques Rousseau: Restless Genius (2005)
• David Edmonds and John Eidinow, Rousseau’s Dog (2007)
• Pankaj Mishra, ‘How Rousseau predicted Trump’, The New Yorker (2016)
• (Audio) In Our Time, The Social Contract

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We look at two countries where things may be changing: Germany, as it starts to imagine life beyond Merkel, and Italy, after the resignation of the prime minister. Would Armin Laschet as Chancellor mean business as usual? Can Conte cobble together a new government? Where are the biggest challenges to the established order coming from? Plus we talk about the new politics of vaccine nationalism. With Helen Thompson, Hans Kundnani and Lucia Rubinelli.

Talking Points:

In some ways Germany is in a state of continuity, rather than flux.

• Armin Laschet is a continuity candidate. Though it’s not clear that he will be the candidate for chancellor in the September election.
• Were Laschet to become chancellor, you would probably have a Black-Green coalition. 
• Has the pandemic made coalition formation less difficult? If so, it would be because the Christian Democrats are in a stronger position than they were.

The German Greens may be different from other Green parties.

• When the Greens emerged in the late 70s/early 80s, it wasn’t clearly a left-wing party.
• The Greens have become more centrist on economic issues, and the Christian Democrats have moved left on environmental questions.
• As environmental politics becomes bigger, is there a constituency that will oppose this? 

Anti-Americanism in Germany is now quite high.

• Ultimately, the Germany-US relation is more driven by structural factors; Germans don’t believe that they need the United States in the way they did during the Cold War.
• How committed is Germany to other European states that do feel threatened by Russia? 

Conte resigned yesterday; he has 72 hours to try to come back.

• Conte resigned because Renzi decided to recall two of his ministers plus an undersecretary.
• Renzi said he no longer shares the method that the government is using, and he accused Conte of undermining democratic institutions through emergency legislation.
• Renzi accused Conte of not having a long-term plan for economic development and criticized his statist plans for the recovery fund.
• He also wants the government to accept the European Stability Mechanism for healthcare.
• These are a lot of demands for someone polling at close to nothing. 
• The other two coalition partners don’t want anything to do with Renzi anymore. The question is whether they will stick to it and find a different majority, which seems difficult, or, whether they decide to bring Renzi back into government and get rid of Conte.
• The only disciplining effect here seems to be a fear of elections—and Salvini.

Conte was initially meant to be a placeholder prime minister.

• That changed with the second Conte government (from Summer 2019). The new coalition gave him more power. This grew with the pandemic.
• The conflict over how Italy spends its money is coming back in full force.

Further Learning: 

• More on Laschet and the struggle to unite the party
• Hans’ essay on the costs of convergence 
• More from Hans on Germany’s democratic dysfunctionality 
• More on Conte’s decision to quit

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David, Helen and Gary reflect on what lies ahead for American politics and for the Biden administration. Does Trump pose more of a threat from inside or outside the Republican party? Is immigration about to become the central partisan dividing line once again? How much good can calls for unity do in such a fractured country? Plus, we look at Trump's list of entrants for his garden of national heroes. From Emily Dickinson to Hannah Arendt to Woody Guthrie - but no Bruce Springsteen. What's going on?

Talking Points:

Many in the Republican Party, including McConnell, have never liked Trump—are they now breaking with him?

• Attempts to establish new parties can shake up American politics, but they rarely succeed.
• The Trump candidacy was a disaster for the Republican establishment from the beginning. 
• McConnell is willing to consider impeachment because Trump still represents a threat to the mainstream Republican Party.

Success in American party politics requires party organization in all 50 states.

• This is not the kind of work that generally appeals to Trump.
• He will probably want to influence the political process from the outside, to make the existing system ungovernable.

The Biden administration wants to be much more ambitious on immigration.

• Previous attempts at immigration reform have failed.
• Biden has an opportunity to demonstrate government competence by focusing on vaccinations.

Biden has made clear that climate is a priority.

• This is politically useful for holding together the Democratic party.
• Biden has already pledged to cancel the Keystone Pipeline; at least on some issues he’s willing to take on the oil and gas industry.
• This quickly gets into foreign policy issues, especially re China.

Biden’s initial window is really two years, not four.

• Democrats should not be counting on a majority in the 2022 elections.
• They need to demonstrate the competence of the federal government. Though it may be difficult for any government to appear competent these days.
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Mentioned in this Episode:

• ‘The Garden of American Heroes’ 
• On Fred Trump and Woody Guthrie
• The text of Joe Biden’s inaugural address

Further Learning: 

• More on Biden’s immigration plan
• Green New Deal? 
• Talking Politics American Histories… Monopoly and Muckraking

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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David and Helen are joined by Diane Coyle and Anand Menon to have another go at pinning down the long term consequences of Brexit. Now we have a deal, what are the prospects for rebalancing the UK economy? Do EU politicians want a post-Brexit UK to succeed or to fail? Can Labour really avoid re-opening the Brexit wars for the next four years? Plus, an update on the next series of History of Ideas.

Talking Points: 

Because of Brexit there is more friction in trade with the EU. 

• People will feel the friction more and more as we get back to normal volumes of trade.
• Right now the volume is relatively low both because of Covid and because of seasonal fluctuations (things slow down after the holidays).
• It will be hard to disentangle Brexit effects from Covid effects. 

We will be talking about Brexit for a long time.

• Future governments will be able to score easy economic wins by aligning more closely with the EU, although this may involve political trade offs. 
• This may not be true when it comes to financial services. 
• This trade agreement means that choices have to be made over and over again.

The British economy is taking two shocks: separating from the EU but also separating from what Osborne and Cameron called a golden era of UK-China economic relations.

• EU policy and British policy on China are diverging.
• The Uk government may focus more on India and other non-Chinese Pacific economies.

Brexit does create some opportunities.

• The UK is a world leader in AI, and there is a commitment to investing in energy technology, especially green energy.
• The UK is also a world leader in higher education and the creative sector; the problem is that the government has declared a sort of culture war.

A German-led EU tends to treat geopolitical questions as primarily economic questions rather than long-term security questions. 

• China is going to put that commitment, formalized in the China Investment pact, to the test.
• Britain is now the liberal European state when it comes to foreign policy.
• The institutions that have been so successful at managing intra-European imbalances now prevent the EU from being an effective actor in international relations.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Johnson’s piece for The Financial Times on green energy
• Anand on the HuffPo podcast with Rosie Duffield
• The UK in a Changing Europe
• ‘Who Killed Soft Brexit?’ Jill Rutter and Anand for Prospect

Further Learning: 

• EU and China agree new investment treaty (from the FT)
• More on Germany and EU politics on China

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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David talks to historian Jill Lepore about what took place at the Capitol on January 6th. What should we call it? What can we compare it to? And what should happen next? Plus we ask how Biden ought to address what happened in his inaugural next week. Are we past the time for talk about reconciliation?

Talking Points:

Is there a word for what happened in the US on 6 Jan? 

• Many Republicans are still defending the insurrection. The likes of Limbaugh and Gingrich are calling it a ‘march.’
• The American Right always wants to resurrect the American Revolution and the Left wants to resurrect the Civil War.
• To call it an ‘insurrection’ is to evoke the language used to bar former Confederates from holding federal office.

A problem with Trump’s entire presidency has been that reporters and commentators have sought precedents in American history, but Jill thinks nothing in American history has been like this.

• Should we be looking to other countries, other failed democracies, for lessons? 
• How do we balance the uniqueness of Trumpism with the familiarity of the things it draws upon?

Unlike right-movements in countries like Hungary and Turkey, the Trump project did not successfully co-opt the institutions of the state.

• American democracy is older than some of these other examples.
• The Conservative movement over the last few decades has managed to capture many institutions, namely the courts—although this is not necessarily Trumpism.

When Trump is out of office will it be easier for him to become a ‘martyr?’ 

• Conviction in an impeachment proceeding could be good for mainstream Republicans. It may also make a split in the party more likely.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Jill in The New Yorker, ‘What Should We Call the Sixth of January’
• Jill on inaugural addresses for The New Yorker
• The Article of Impeachment against Trump
• Jill in The Washington Post on letting history judge Trump
• From our archives… Jill on the American Nation

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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David and Helen look at what's changed - and what hasn't - since we last spoke, from Brexit to Biden to Covid. Has the Brexit deal really given the UK a chance to do things differently? Do Democrat wins in the Georgia Senate races open up new possibilities for Biden? What is at stake in the politics of vaccination? Plus, we talk about where things now stand for the future of the Union.

*Recorded before the events in Washington on Wednesday *

Talking Points:

What can the UK do that it couldn’t do before Brexit? 

• From the start, the two biggest issues for Cameron were freedom of movement and financial services regulation.
• For the City, Brexit is a tradeoff. Although financial services will not be regulated in the EU, the American investment banks in London are unhappy about being shut out of equivalence for trading.
• Johnson is talking about innovation and dynamism. He doesn’t seem willing to say it’s about migration and the City of London.

Northern Ireland and Scotland will both be key questions that we will talk about in greater depth this year.

• There will be a growing sense of Northern Ireland’s separateness. The deal creates opportunities and risks for the government in Dublin.
• A trade deal changes what Scottish independence would mean.

Meanwhile, in the USA… the Democrats now have control of the Senate.

• This election could indicate the potential of a remarkable new coalition for the Democratic party.
• Or it could indicate a future where everything is contested.
• What can Biden get done before the next midterms? 
• During the Obama years, the Republicans were extremely effective at voting as an oppositional bloc. 
• Holding the Democratic senators together won’t be easy and Biden will not be able to blame oppositional Republicans for any failure to get things done.
• However a key benefit for the Democrats is that they will be able to confirm nominees.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Matthew Parris in the Times
• David’s winter talk: Did Covid kill the climate? 

Further Learning:

• From December… From Brexit to Scottish Independence
• More on the partition of Ireland
• More on the Georgia election results
• More on the European vaccine rollout
• From November… Post-Covid Economics with Adam Tooze

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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