TALKING POLITICS

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This week David, Helen and our producer Catherine Carr look back at five years of podcasting and five years of crazy politics, to pick our favourite moments and to discuss what we've learned. From the 2015 general election to the current crisis, via the Corn Laws and Crashed, the politics of abortion and super forecasting, Corbyn and nuclear weapons. Plus, we'll let you know about some of our plans for 2021.

Episodes Mentioned in this Episode: 

• Crashed with Adam Tooze
• Adam Tooze on post-COVID economics
• The Corn Laws with Boyd Hilton
• Another Shock! (From 2017) with Finbarr Livesey
• The Talking Politics Guide… to Nuclear Weapons with Aaron Rapport
• Superforecasting with David Spiegelhalter
• American Histories: The Great Abortion Switcheroo with Sarah Churchwell
• Catherine’s new podcast, Relatively.

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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We look past Covid and Brexit to ask where the long-term opposition to Johnson's government is going to come from. Can Corbynism remain a force in British politics, even without Corbyn? Is there room for a challenge to the Conservatives from the right? Will climate politics drive street protest politics or can it help the Greens? Plus we consider whether Nicola Sturgeon is really the leader of the opposition. With Helen Thompson and Chris Brooke.

Talking Points:

Corbynist energy levels are low these days.

• There is a strong Corbynist presence on Twitter and in certain media institutions, but it’s not clear that it extends far beyond those bubbles.
• Much of the radical left politics in the near future will be defensive.

When Starmer ran for leader, he essentially offered Corbynism without Corbyn.

• The manifestos of 2017 and 2019 were popular inside the Labour Party and reasonably popular with the public. 
• Corbyn did move the party out of New Labour’s shadow. Starmer has inherited a party that is firmly outside the New Labour mainstream.
• Although some Corbynists fear a return to New Labour-esque politics, Labour now seems to be a social democratic party in the European mold. 

Will the Green Party benefit from these developments?

• Helen thinks that we are more likely to see increased green activism than a resurgence in Green Party politics.
• Many on the left are disenchanted with parliamentary politics.
• And over the last couple of years, the major parties have shifted on climate. 

If Johnson is really committed to greener politics, does that open space on the right?

• Farage is positioning himself in this gap.
• This could intersect with a rebellion against lockdown.

What should Starmer do about Scotland?

• Could Starmer make a case that the democratic voice of the people of Scotland must be heard, and then make a social democratic case for the Union?
• A more federal union is going to require stronger institutions in England, which is probably to Labour’s disadvantage. 
• Time for the SNP to weaken is probably the best way forward for both unionist parties.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• This Land by Owen Jones

Further Learning: 

• James Butler on the Corbyn project for the LRB
• More on Macron, the constitution, and climate politics
• From our archives… Labour’s Fault Lines
• A profile of Andy Burnham from The Guardian

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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As we wait for a Brexit deal or no deal, we discuss what the next year might hold for French and Italian politics. What are Macron's prospects as he heads towards the next presidential election? Has Giorgia Meloni replaced Matteo Salvini as the leader of the Italian far right? And what chance of a return to political normalcy in either country? With Lucia Rubinelli and Chris Bickerton.

Talking Points: 

The Italian public is fed up with Brexit—there isn’t much public debate about it.

• Salvini is still playing with the idea that leaving the EU is a good idea, but not as seriously now. 
• All the signals from the government suggest that Italy is lining up with Macron, but they aren’t trying to play a central role.

There are particular issues that affect different member states. The broader European unity is now being tested on certain key issues.

• The Irish are particularly affected by no deal.
• For France, the most important issue is probably the level playing field. Fishing also has a powerful symbolic element to it.
• It may come down to member states being willing to make compromises with each other, or not. 

Italy was the first Western country to be hit by the virus and the first to lockdown. The response created a sense of pride.

• During summer, however, life went back to normal. It was basically a free-for-all.
• When cases began to climb again, the mood turned to frustration: frustration at the relationship between governments and regions, and frustration with certain policies, such as the closure of high schools.
• There is also the sense that Italy is lagging behind on the vaccine. 

Macron also went in earlier on lockdown, and came out of lockdown earlier too. 

• The idea that Macron has authoritarian tendencies has become part of the debate over COVID. There has been an almost permanent sense of emergency stretching from the yellow vest period to today.
• COVID has blurred into a border debate about the balance between security and civil liberties in France.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Our last episode with Lucia

Further Learning: 

• More on Johnson’s dinner with von der Leyen 
• Why is fishing important in the Brexit trade talks?
• More on Article 24 in France
• A profile of Giorgia Meloni from Politico Europe
• More on France’s Green Party

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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We try to join the dots from the final days of the Brexit negotiations to the looming prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence. Can the government really risk a no-deal outcome? Will the SNP still hold a referendum if the courts say no? What will Labour do? Plus we ask how COVID politics intersects with the fate of the Union. With Helen Thompson, Anand Menon and Kenneth Armstrong.

Talking Points:

Will there be a Brexit deal?

• We know the concessions both sides would have to make. What we don’t know whether either side is willing to make the concessions.
• The negotiation that matters is perhaps the one going on in the prime minister’s head.
• Debates over lockdown have reopened the space to the Conservative Party’s right.
• The Eurozone faces its own problem: trying to rescue the EU Recovery Fund from the impasse over the rule of law issue in relation to Hungary and Poland. 

The Union is in a more precarious position than it was before.

• The SNP is doing surprisingly well. That gives Sturgeon some comfort in thinking that she can seek a mandate for another referendum if she wins a majority.
• How will they go about the referendum? Some people are floating the possibility of the Scottish parliament legislating for another referendum without the Section 30 order that would get consent from the UK.
• For people like Michael Gove, Scotland is a key reason to get a Brexit deal.

There is undeniably support for independence in opinion polls, but can the SNP offer a coherent independence project?

• Helen thinks that they still haven’t resolved the currency question. There’s also the border issue.
• Can the SNP accept an independent Scotland outside of the European Union? Membership has been a key part of the independence offer. 
• Will timing favor the SNP or Westminster? 

Brexit and Scotland are problems for Keir Starmer too.

• How will Starmer whip his MP’s to vote if a Brexit deal comes back? 
• Labour without seats from Scotland will find it hard to win another election.
• Ultimately, the major economic event of this parliament is going to be Brexit, not COVID, or at least it will be close, so Labour needs to come up with some kind of narrative.
• Labour’s strength in Scotland bound the Union together. It hasn’t come back since 2011. This makes it hard for any party other than the Conservatives to be dominant in Westminster, particularly under conditions of asymmetrical devolution.  

Mentioned in this Episode:

• The UK in a Changing Europe
• Alex Massie on the SNP

Further Learning: 

• From the archives… Can Boris Survive Brexit? 
• More on Starmer and the Brexit deal

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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This week we talk about race and representation with Cathy Cohen of the GenForward Survey project based in Chicago. What do young Americans want from democratic politics? How do their priorities vary according to race and ethnicity? And can a Biden presidency deliver on the desire for real change? Plus we catch up with Jeevun Sandher and Michael Bankole of the Politics Jam podcast to explore a UK perspective on why young and minority voices find it so hard to be heard.

Talking Points:

We are seeing more racial and ethnic diversity in generations than ever before.

• Young people break for Biden, but for young white men, it was about 50-50.
• In 2012, a plurality of young whites voted for Romney. If we look only at generation we miss part of the story.
• The story about ‘young people’ is being driven by young people of colour.

Does Biden have a problem with young people?

• Many young people voted against Trump rather than for Biden.
• They decided to vote against Trump and organize against Biden.
• What is the best method for achieving racial progress in the US? Young African Americans are pointing to the need for structural change.
• Young people are rejecting the idea that change comes from national-level voting. They are redefining what democratic practice might be.

Young people broadly favor a more expansive state.

• The Biden agenda is more about tweaking at the edges.
• There is going to be a real tension. Will there be the infrastructure to mobilize young people? Can they pressure the administration?
• This generation is highly educated, but they are also precarious. There is an increasing mismatch between the promise of higher education and what it delivers.
• The younger generation is highly indebted because of higher education.

In both the UK and the US, young people haven’t been represented well by the political system.

• There are specific issues that young people want to see addressed, including systemic racism.
• Ethnic differences among young people need to be taken into account in the UK too.
• The political class in the House of Commons is unrepresentative in many ways. It skews old and it skews white.
• Conservatives tend to represent white seats. The First-Past-the-Post system doesn’t incentivize serious engagement with ethnically diverse constituencies.

Mentioned in this episode:

• The GenForward Survey
• The Black Youth Project
• Politics JaM
• Jeevun’s academic profile
• Michael’s academic profile
• Anne Phillips, The Politics of Presence
• Thomas Saalfeld on substantive representation

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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This week a special edition from the Bristol Festival of Economics with Helen Thompson and Adam Tooze talking about what might follow the pandemic. From vaccines to changing patterns of employment, from action on climate to new tensions with China, we explore what the long-term effects of 2020 might be. Plus we discuss what options are open to a Biden administration: with the Georgia run-offs to come and the disease still spreading, how much wriggle room has he got?

Talking Points: 

Headlines about the COVID vaccines focus on effectiveness, but it’s also about supply chains, storage, and scale.

• Things are moving so quickly right now in part because so many people, especially in the US, are getting sick.

After the initial financial meltdown in March, in aggregate terms there was a share market recovery—one which was at odds with what was going on with people’s lives.

• Surging American unemployment numbers went alongside the S&P 500’s continued rise.
• The biggest beneficiaries initially were big tech. Now big pharma seems to be gaining. 
• Is there a structural conflict in the allocation of capital between big tech and big pharma? 
• Big tech probably won’t be facing much of a challenge from the White House.

The Biden administration will be embroiled in crisis politics from Day 1.

• The epidemic in the US right now looks terrifying, and Thanksgiving is on the horizon.
• The logic of economic crisis management is about time. 
• The Democrats are going to have a hard time getting things through Congress, and the fact that things are so hard will divide them further. 

The Biden Administration will make early moves on climate.

• It will be hard for Biden to take climate seriously without some kind of detente with China, but getting there is hard to imagine. 

After the health crisis ends, some jobs might not come back.

• The effectiveness of short-term working means that the unemployment crisis has not yet hit in Europe.
• The US unemployment crisis is in full swing. So far, the bounce back has been relatively quick. But there will be a manifest social crisis. 

There are imaginably worse pandemics than this one, and yet we have responded in an almost unimaginable way.

• This is a highly mediatized, diffuse threat that has acquired huge salience. 
• This is the most extraordinary thing that has happened in modern economic history. 
• A lot of this unprecedented response was voluntary.

Mentioned in this Episode: 

• Biden’s piece in Foreign Affairs
• Paul Krugman’s latest piece for the NYTimes
• Our last episode with Adam

Further Learning:

• The NYTimes’ COVID vaccine tracker
• More on China’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060
• https://www.ideasfestival.co.uk/themes/festival-economics

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:

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We talk to the historian Margaret MacMillan about the changing character of war, from the ancient world to the twenty-first century. Do we still understand the risks? Where are the conflicts of the future likely to break out? And how can we reconcile the terrible destructiveness of war with its capacity to bring about positive change? Plus we talk about why war produces so much great art.

Talking Points:

Is the way we commemorate war distancing us from the reality of it? 

• Those who have seen war tend to be wary of it.
• There is complacency in a number of countries that war is something that ‘we’ don’t do anymore.

War is terrible, yet so much of the innovation that we value seems intertwined with it.

• For many people WWI exemplifies the futility of war, yet many of the things we value came out of that war, particularly political and institutional change. 
• WWI essentially gave Europe modern welfare states and universal suffrage.
• The two world wars also led to much greater social equality.
• There seems to be a deep connection between peace and inequality, and violence and equality. But it might depend on what countries and what wars you look at.

If war is connected to innovation because it is so wasteful you cannot recreate those conditions.

• Perhaps we are doing something similar with COVID, but climate change is the true existential crisis.
• Climate change does not seem to be a unifying crisis.
• Declaring ‘war’ on an abstraction is dangerous. How do you know when it’s over? Wars on abstractions are wars without limits.

Templates from the past don’t fully apply to the US-China relationship.

• There is the nuclear element, which should hypothetically rule out war.
• There’s also the energy resource conflict question: China has been able to take responsibility for its own energy security.
• In the long run, it is in the interests of both the US and China to cooperate with each other. The problem is the political factor.

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Margaret MacMillan, War: How Conflict Shaped Us
• General Nick Carter’s interview with Sky News
• Walter Scheidel, The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century
• Rana Mitter, China’s Good War
• ‘La Grande Illusion’
• Tim O’Brien, The Things They Carried
• ‘Apocalypse Now’

Further Learning: 

• Margaret MacMillan, Paris 1919
• Talking Politics History of Ideas: Max Weber on...

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