In this third edition of The House View for 2026, Phil Rowland and Sameer Chopra revisit the Australian real estate outlook after a volatile first half shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, higher interest rates and the Federal Budget.

Despite these headwinds, the Q2 data points to a more resilient market than many expected. Investment activity rebounded, leasing demand remained strong in key office markets, cap rates were broadly stable, and rent growth continued to surprise on the upside - particularly for prime, well-located assets.

Phil and Sameer explore why fundamentals such as supply and demand continue to matter most, how a constrained development pipeline is supporting rent growth, and what the Federal Budget could mean for private capital flows into commercial real estate. They also discuss the impact of AI on office demand, the outlook for construction costs and economic rents, and why access to quality stock in quality locations remains a defining theme for occupiers and investors.

The episode closes with Sameer’s key predictions for the second half of 2026.