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If Tesla can sell 10M cars in 2030 at $35K, with a 40% ROIC, a 40X multiple on that would be $2.8T. Discounted back at 8%, Mayur comes up with a fair value of $1,167 per share for Tesla's vehicle business. Tesla already has a 23% ROIC today, despite numerous growth tailwinds. This puts them far above auto industry norms, and validates the companies valuation as a technology play/disrupter. Even at Mayur's $2.8T valuation, he is assuming minimal robotaxi revenue, and nothing from energy or Tesla Bots ... imagine if any of those moonshots work.
By Gali4.8
9898 ratings
If Tesla can sell 10M cars in 2030 at $35K, with a 40% ROIC, a 40X multiple on that would be $2.8T. Discounted back at 8%, Mayur comes up with a fair value of $1,167 per share for Tesla's vehicle business. Tesla already has a 23% ROIC today, despite numerous growth tailwinds. This puts them far above auto industry norms, and validates the companies valuation as a technology play/disrupter. Even at Mayur's $2.8T valuation, he is assuming minimal robotaxi revenue, and nothing from energy or Tesla Bots ... imagine if any of those moonshots work.

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