Note: We taped on Thursday before Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, or Alaska had been called (only Fox and the AP had called Arizona) and before Trump made his ridiculous speech Thursday night.

First, Joe gives his take on what happened. The good: Joe Biden got the most presidential votes ever. We flipped the Blue Wall and Arizona and Georgia became purple states. The bad: Donald Trump got the second-most votes ever. And Doug Jones didn't get the result we wanted.

Second, Joe took some heat for a tweet suggesting Democrats need to do a better job reaching conservatives in order to govern and win more votes. He explains his thinking.

Finally, what the hell do we make of the entire business of polling now that they missed so egregiously? What does this mean for campaign managers like Joe?

Arnon Mishkin profile Alex mentioned: https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-decision-desk-director-election-night-calling-races-2020-10Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/that-trippi-show/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Joe predicted 95 days ago that this election would look like 1980, where Jimmy Carter and the Democrats were wiped out behind an unpopular incumbent. Tonight, we'll see if he was right.

First, given the chance, will Joe walk his prediction back? Will Election Day turnout really be dominated by Republicans? What states is Joe looking at now that the polls are locked in?

Next, Axios reported Trump will declare victory if he looks to be ahead at any point. Joe explains why he's not worried about that, at least from an electoral standpoint.

Then, a quick look at the Senate races (including a potential surprise), and Joe's prediction that the Democrats may win big in the Senate.

And then, the exact counties Joe will be watching tonight that will have a big hand in dictating what will happen in the election. (List below)

Our listener question is about split-ticket voters.

COUNTIES TO WATCH:

FL: Sumter, Pinellas, Miami-Dade, Hernando, Duval

PA: Lackawanna, Armstrong, Indiana, Lycoming, Schuylkill, Montgomery

OH: Stark, Ross, Pike

Joe's map pre-election: https://www.270towin.com/maps/3zwK2

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First, Joe and Alex take a look at the latest polls and talk about where the race stands this late in the game. What does Biden's latest big lead illustrate about who's drifting from one side to the other? What is Joe's map -- more importantly, what surprise swing state is Joe putting in the Dem column?

Next, what do the candidates' travel schedules this week show about how they're viewing the race? Is Biden taking an unnecessary risk going to Georgia and Iowa instead of Michigan and Pennsylvania?

Finally, what will we know on Tuesday? Many are pontificating that we may not know for weeks who won the race. Joe disagrees, and thinks we may know a lot fairly quickly.

Also, are you worrying day after day about the election? Joe quells some of those worries, but also asks you to lean into them. Make a difference.

Finally, a listener question about exit polls, which are instrumental for how news organizations make calls. How do they work in the pandemic era?

Take a look at Joe's map here: https://www.270towin.com/maps/3zwK2

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Today, we're joined by one of the Hacks on Tap, Mike Murphy! He's the strategic advisor to Republicans Voting Against Trump, a group working hard to turn out the swing voters who could make a huge impact in this election.

Mike joins Joe and Alex to talk about the early vote returns, the huge turnout in Texas, the future of the GOP, and whether civility will return to politics.

He also has a suggestion for neurotic return-watchers that we could all probably use.

Plus, intel from RNC spies from Air Force One and Mike's primers on which *specific counties* to watch for on Election Night for a harbinger of the whole enchilada.

To read Richard Ben Cramer's book Joe references: https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Way-White-House/dp/0679746498

To learn more about RVAT, visit https://rvat.org/.

To support Joe and Alex, please visit DougJones.com/help.

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Joe and Alex first recap the debate, which was a remarkably less terrible experience than the previous one. Who watches these final debates? Did any of Trump's meandering conspiracy theories land? Did Biden - or Trump - land any convincing blows?

Next, what to make of Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon cautioning campaign staff and supporters that the race is still neck and neck in battleground states? Is that true? A Biden senior advisor told Politico what states they think they need to get to 270; what does Joe think?

Then, Biden is raking in unprecedented cash as we near the finish line. How does that translate into actual results? What are some of the impacts of the Biden campaign's massive financial lead over the president?

Two listener questions take us home: first, about what kind of turnout to expect, and second, what early Election Night results could be a harbinger for the ultimate result.

Please give us a rating on iTunes and subscribe! And support Joe and Alex by making a contribution to Doug Jones for Senate at DougJones.com/help.

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Joe and Alex are joined by Paul Maslin, the veteran pollster who conducted the poll that had Doug Jones ahead by a point last week. How did he determine that number, and are national Democrats overlooking the Jones race? What are the trends in AL that could speak to national trends?

Paul lives in Wisconsin, and shares some insight about the state of the race there, including a potential swing county and a prediction for what will happen in the state Nov. 3.

Then, a broader look at the whole race. What feels like the most likely possible outcome at this point?

Please subscribe, rate and review the show. See you Friday!

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First, Joe and Alex recap the weird Trump Town Hall and the delightfully normal Biden Town Hall, but then explore more troubling realization of how divided our country is.

Plus, a heads up to our listeners to tune into Pod Save America today, Oct. 16, for some breaking news. Please check it out and leave in the reviews that we sent you!

Along with that, a look at several key Senate races. What does Mitch McConnell's PAC spending reveal about the state of Senate races in North Carolina, Maine, Texas, and others?

Finally, what do we make of this idea the Republicans will show up in droves on Election Day to offset the lead the Democrats are building in early and absentee voting?

Our listener question this week is about what happens if Fox calls the presidential race for Trump in a misleading fashion.

Link to Pod Save America: https://crooked.com/podcast-series/pod-save-america/

Thomas Edsall's column in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html

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Good news: From now till Election Day, you'll get two episodes a week!

Today, Joe and Alex quickly touch on:

The Biden campaign has sent surrogates to Texas and Biden himself is in Ohio. What does this mean?

What do we make of the dueling messages out of the SCOTUS hearings that started Monday?

Should Democrats be nervous that the Republicans may be on the verge of a surprise Senate pickup in Michigan?

Subscribe, rate and review -- and don't forget to leave a question on the iTunes store or via email at [email protected].

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First, the VP debate was almost quaint in how civil it was. What do we make of Kamala's performance, plus what happens next with Trump's mixed messages on whether he'll show up for future debates, virtual or otherwise?

Second, Trump's positive test for COVID-19 upended the entire country, and of course the wild presidential race. What happens now? And what does McConnell pushing forward on the SCOTUS nomination say about the prospects of the race?

Next, polls continue to predict a Biden landslide. Joe has been predicting something to that effect for months. But now, Democrats are worried that perhaps the Biden campaign's eyes are bigger than their stomach as they make a play for places like Texas. Are they playing their alleged lead wisely?

And how do you reconcile the GOP in registering new voters in swing states?

Our listener question is about the wild turns in the North Carolina Senate race in the last week and how they could affect -- or not affect -- the battle for the Senate.

Please leave us a question in the reviews on Apple Podcasts -- give us five stars if you're there! -- or submit one via email to [email protected].

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(Note: this episode was taped prior to the President announced he had tested positive for COVID.)

Joe and Alex agree: the debates were a mess, but the result is ultimately good for Biden. The Trump team seems to be aware they're losing, so how bad could this get?

Then, a reminder that the election has already started (gulp). Over 2 million votes have already been cast, some in pivotal states like Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. What are the numbers suggesting about who is voting and why?

Lastly, Joe has been predicting a 1980-esque result -- the trouncing of an unpopular incumbent -- for months. What if that happens? Where do Republicans (and Democrats) go from there?

Our listener question this week asks why none of us saw the country going in the direction it has. But some did.

Please leave us a question in the reviews on Apple Podcasts -- give us five stars if you're there! -- or submit one via email to [email protected].

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