For the past two years, the Conservatives drove home the message that things were “broken” in Canada and that the governing Liberals, specifically Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, was to blame. Whether it was branding the rising cost of living  ‘Justinflation’ or blaming those costs on the Liberals’ carbon price and urging Canadians to ‘Axe the Tax,’ the Tories’ messaging was working perfectly fine.

Then U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House and, with that, a new obstacle blocked Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's path to power.

Trump says he's serious about annexing Canada through economic means. His threats to impose across-the-board tariffs have already caused panic in this country, and it's led to a bounce in the polls for the federal Liberals.

Though the Conservatives had enjoyed a 27-point lead over the Liberals for a while, a Leger poll this week seemed to confirm a new trend: a single-digit gap between both parties — and if Mark Carney led the  Liberals, the possibility the Grits could win.

With Trudeau’s resignation, and Liberal leadership candidates pledging to axe-the-tax, those issues are now off the table. Is it Trump's return that changes the ballot question for the next Federal election? Does winning now depend on whether the Conservatives can be seen as the best defenders of Canada against an unpredictable threat coming from our southern border?

In this episode of “It’s Political,” Pollara Chief Strategy Officer Dan Arnold and 338canada.com’s editor-in-chief Philippe J. Fournier join us for a deep dive on what the numbers really signal.

Then, we’ll explore the current challenges facing Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party with Toronto Star Ottawa reporters Raisa Patel and Ryan Tumilty, along with Radio-Canada’s Christian Noël.

In this episode: Pollara Strategic Insight’s Chief Strategy Officer Dan Arnold, 338canada.com Editor-in-Chief and Politico Contributor Philippe J. Fournier; Toronto Star Ottawa Bureau reporter Raisa Patel; Toronto Star Ottawa Bureau reporter Ryan Tumilty; and Radio-Canada parliamentary bureau journalist Christian Noël. Hosted by Althia Raj.

Some of the clips this week were sourced from CPAC, Fox News, CBC, CTV, Radio-Canada, Global News, CP24, Toronto Sun, the X accounts of Pierre Poilievre, Chrystia Freeland, and Mark Carney, and Poilievre’s YouTube account.

This episode of “It’s Political” was produced by Althia Raj and Julia De Laurentiis Johnston. Matt Hearn is our sound engineer. Our theme music is by Isaac Joel.