On The Gist, the second of three episodes recorded at our live show in Brooklyn, New York. From the stage of the Bell House, Harry Enten from FiveThirtyEight uses his poling expertise to explain Trump's real chances at the presidency. Then, Adam Davidson declares America's interest rates "the most important thing in the world." He's a contributor to the New York Times Magazine and a founder of NPR's Planet Money. Then, Zoe Chace from This American Life swoops in to help explain the mystery at the heart of our economy: what we think about, what Janet Yellen is thinking about, what we think about Janet Yellen. It will all be clear soon. Check back Thursday for the third part of this special live Gist series. Today's sponsors: Stamps.com, where you can buy and print official U.S. postage right from your desk using your own computer and printer. Use the promo code THEGIST to get a no-risk trial and a $110 bonus offer. Harry's, the shaving company that offers German-engineered blades, well-designed handles, and shipping right to your door. Visit Harrys.com for $5 off your first purchase with the promo code THEGIST. Join Slate Plus! Members get bonus segments, exclusive member-only podcasts, and more. Sign up for a free trial today at slate.com/gistplus.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.