Recent Case-Schiller figures show single family home prices continuing to slide downwards, and discussions of a deflating housing bubble have steadily increased. At the same time, multifamily fundamentals are still strong, and while rising mortgage rates are a major factor in declining single family home prices, apartment demand should remain high given that mortgage rates are not a factor in renters' decisions.

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While the Consumer Price Index recorded a substantial .8% monthly increase in rent prices, these historically-lagging figures are at odds with apartment industry reports showing moderating rent growth over the past few months. Even so, the positive long-term prospects for multifamily are reinforced by new research suggesting that the 15-year trend of declining U.S. birth rates may be reversing for certain populations.

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Multifamily fundamentals remain strong amidst an uncertain economic environment, which is as true today as it is reflective of the historic performance of the apartment market. Even so, we have seen a slowdown in rent growth as we approach the end of the year, and while this pullback in rent growth is in line with typical seasonal trends, recent reports have found a number of steady-growth markets and sub-markets that have outperformed the rent growth leaders of 2021.

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Even as apartment demand continues to normalize and ever-increasing interest rates create more challenges for investors, reports published this week emphasize the performance and stability of private commercial real estate investments like multifamily apartments, which have historically been valued as less volatile and better-performing alternatives to the stock market during periods of economic uncertainty.

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Newly published reports and examinations of the housing environment and multifamily market underscore the impacts of the Fed's latest rate hike as we head into the final quarter of the year. Apartment rents are trending toward a seasonal slowdown in line with pre-pandemic trends, and while home values are falling, housing affordability remains a problem. Despite these headwinds, the multifamily market is on solid footing, supported by consistent high demand, and in the context of the volatility and uncertainty in the broader economy, the historic stability of apartment assets and the longer hold period for these investments continue to draw attention from investors looking for an attractive risk-return profile in the current economic environment.

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The Federal Reserve's 0.75% increase in the federal funds rate places even more pressure on the economy, and as home prices show consistent signs of a cooldown, multifamily investors are watching the market closely. While single-family home prices are correlated with multifamily rents, apartment rent growth has not seen the same declines, partly because average monthly payments for single-family homes have been consistently above the price of rentals, providing some cushion against the interest-rate-related volatility we are currently facing.

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Stock markets fell after the latest CPI report showed higher-then-expected inflation, but the nominal increase—0.1% month-over-month—is relatively low. More significantly, the CPI shows that rental housing has become one of the most powerful drivers of inflation. Notably, market rate apartment rents remain below the 30% unaffordability threshold, and elevated mortgage rates have kept rental housing as a more affordable option than buying a home, suggesting that there may be room for further growth.

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Apartment industry professionals expect continued pressure from interest rates and inflation through the rest of the year, with many expecting mild cap rate expansion in the near future. That being said, the multifamily market's strong fundamentals and history of stable performance amidst economic volatility leaves open the possibility of greater investor interest, especially in the wake of such strong rent growth in 2021 and 2022.

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DISCLAIMERS: This podcast does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. The opportunities referenced in this podcast do not represent an offer to invest.

Despite continued turbulence in the economy, persistent trends in the multifamily market and commercial real estate are sharpening many projections for 2022 and 2023. A recently-published cap rate survey further highlights the effect that the Federal Reserve's interest rate regime has had on CRE markets, and several recent multifamily reports show how the higher-performing apartment markets of 2021 have softened in 2022, with renter and investor demand increasing in smaller secondary/tertiary markets.

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Sales volumes for single family homes have decreased significantly due to increasing mortgage rates, but with the slowdown so strongly linked to interest rate hikes, there is no evidence that would suggest an implosion or collapse. Housing demand remains strong, but the sharp increases in average mortgage payments have priced a growing number of people out of buying a home. As reports published this week note, the apartment market can expect continued demand from would-be homebuyers, and while multifamily development continues at elevated levels, longer construction timelines and persistent materials and labor problems will make it difficult to substantially impact demand.  

For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, check out the Gray Report website: https://www.grayreport.com/ 

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DISCLAIMERS: This podcast does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This podcast is not an offer to invest.