Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. 

For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, and Sarah Harrison, Crisis Group’s Senior U.S. Analyst, about Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and the U.S. strategy toward the country. Alan and Omar update listeners on the stalling offensive, supported by clan militias and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). They also discuss the postponed withdrawal of ATMIS soldiers and whether the Somali government will be able to take over from the African Union forces by the end of 2024. Alan and Sarah evaluate successive U.S. administrations' approaches to Somalia as part of the Global War on Terrorism. They discuss how the Biden administration decided to send U.S. troops back to Somalia despite Biden's pledge to end the country's forever wars and whether U.S. strategy remains fit for purpose. Omar also discusses how Somalis view U.S. support. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our report Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy, our briefing Sustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaab and our Somalia country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Dr Suliman Baldo, Executive Director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, about the dire state of Sudan six months into the war between Sudan’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and whether Sudan has already collapsed. They assess the current military dynamics across the country and the internal dynamics within both the RSF and the Sudanese armed forces, as well as why there has been no serious progress towards a ceasefire. They talk about how both parties’ mobilisation of different ethnic groups amplifies further social tensions among the population. They also discuss the involvement of outside actors in the conflict and why existing peace efforts have failed to make any meaningful progress.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso, founder of Amani Africa, Paul-Simon Handy of the Institute for Security Studies, and Crisis Group expert Liesl Louw-Vaudran to discuss the state of peace and security in Africa. They assess the African Union’s response to the recent string of coups in West Africa and whether it still has the ability to deter military takeovers. They also talk about how the conflict in Sudan has tested the AU’s peace and security architecture and how competition between the AU and different regional bodies has hampered mediation efforts. Finally, they discuss what shape peacekeeping in Africa might take in the future and whether regional initiatives can fill the vacuum left by the departure of UN missions.

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?, our previous podcast episodes on the with Liesl and Solomon and our Africa program page.

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In this first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan Boswell talks with Annette Weber, EU special representative for the Horn of Africa, to discuss diplomacy and peacemaking in the region. They talk at length about the conflict in Sudan, the trajectory of regional and international mediation efforts, the prospects for serious ceasefire negotiations and the best ways of including civilians in a peace process. They assess whether anything can be done to improve the situation in Darfur even as national ceasefire talks falter. They also take a look at other developments in the Horn, from the unrest in Ethiopia to the region's approach to Eritrea, as well as the renewed negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the future of efforts to counter Al-Shabaab. They also discuss the growing role of Arab Gulf powers in the Horn and the changing nature of diplomacy in the region. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page. 

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From 22-24 August, leaders of the BRICS countries, the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will meet in Johannesburg for their annual summit. The meeting is highly anticipated as it comes at a point of growing polarisation and uncertainty on the international stage. In this rapidly changing global order, some see BRICS becoming a political counterweight to the West, but internal divides and divergent goals among the group on topics like UN reform suggest that it is far from united.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sanusha Naidu, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, to discuss what to expect at the upcoming BRICS Summit. They unpack the origins of the alliance and how its goals have shifted in recent years. They talk about whether BRICS is moving from a group of emergent economies to a political bloc in opposition to the West. They also discuss how the war in Ukraine has changed dynamics within BRICS, and South Africa’s relationship with Russia, which has come under increased scrutiny. They also talk about what’s next for BRICS and where the group might look next for potential expansion. 

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our pages on Africa and Multilateral Diplomacy pages.

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Sudan’s famed resistance committees arose in their present form during Sudan's 2019 revolution and then spearheaded the country's resistance to military rule over the subsequent years. With the outbreak of war in April between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, these groups are scrambling to aid Sudanese caught in the war yet also face an uncertain and challenging future. Many of their members have fled for safety abroad, and those who remain face dangers on many fronts, including from the warring parties and the dire humanitarian situation. 

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Maryam Elfaki, long and active member of the resistance committee in Sudan's northern sister city Bahri, about what is next for the revolutionary networks in the country now that they find themselves caught inside Sudan's terrible new war. They talk about the origins, structures, and internal dynamics of the resistance committees, their efforts to forge a collective political roadmap, whether anyone in Sudan can claim political legitimacy, how they view other political actors in the country, and whether resistance committees can play a direct role in any future peace talks or political process. They also talk about how resistance committees have transformed themselves into Sudan's humanitarian first responders and aim to provide the vanished services of Sudan's collapsed state. 

For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page.

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Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan, the West Darfur region has seen a dramatic resurgence in violence. While the RSF and the Sudanese army have focused their war effort on the capital Khartoum, fighting has erupted between Arab and non-Arab militias and paramilitary groups in West Darfur. Reports of mass atrocities and displacement share unsettling similarities to the brutal war that devastated Darfur 20 years ago. With the main conflict actors in Sudan being seemingly no closer to a peace deal after more than two months of fighting, the violence seems unlikely to subside. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Jerome Tubiana, writer, researcher, and a former Sudan analyst for Crisis Group, about the escalating violence in West Darfur. They discuss the history of conflict in Darfur, factors that played into escalating tensions on the eve of Sudan's new war, and how the outbreak of conflict in April has led to a rapid deterioration of stability in the region. They highlight the brutal tactics of armed groups in the region and the devastating toll that has taken on civilians. They talk about the actors involved and how the RSF and the Sudanese army view the conflict in Darfur. They also address if the fighting in Darfur might spread further in the region and into Chad and why peace in Khartoum might not be enough to end the violence in Sudan’s peripheries. 

For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our latest briefing “A Race against Time to Halt Sudan’s Collapse” and our Sudan country page. 

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The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan's army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.

This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt's response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo's views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episodes, check out our Sudan and Egypt country pages.

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The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has taken a grave toll on civilians throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands have fled Sudan and those staying behind in urban areas are facing severe shortages of basic necessities. On 22 May, the conflict parties negotiated yet another ceasefire in their talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. But since every previous ceasefire has been broken, hope is faint that this one will hold.

This week on The Horn, Alan interviews Reem Abbas, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and a Sudanese activist and researcher, to discuss her first-hand encounter with the fighting in Khartoum and her arduous journey out of Sudan to Egypt. They discuss what life is now like in Khartoum, the systematic destruction of the city, the exodus of the Sudanese elite and the long-term implications for the country. They also talk about how the two parties are faring militarily, why the fighting might not end soon and how civilian actors should organise themselves. 

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page.

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