Lagniappe

The Impact of Financial Forecasting and Market Corrections


Listen Later

Investors’ decisions are mostly based on financial predictions made by so-called experts. So, when the news broke that we were about to enter a pandemic, investors and advisors were in shock. How do investors move forward when modern society is suddenly afflicted by an uncontrollable peril like COVID-19?

In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the risks of poor financial forecasting, the truth about market corrections, and the true indicators for smart investing practices. 


Key Takeaways

  • [02:03] - Why is forecasting in finance becoming a nightmare?
  • [03:47] - What forecasts and projections really tell you.
  • [05:47] - Omicron’s impact.
  • [09:52] - How COVID-19 has been affecting investors’ and advisors’ daily lives.
  • [12:30] - Why is it impossible to forecast in finance?
  • [15:29] - Why the bond market is always the best guide.
  • [17:11] - Two factors that affect inflation.
  • [18:36] - Why corrections are normal.
  • [25:10] - How forecasting works in sports.

  • Quotes

    [10:26] - “This has been such a shock to society, especially a society that's been used to general comfort throughout life. I think if this would have happened 100 or 200 years ago, people would have just dealt with it and moved on. But now we're basically protected from most dangers in the world and modern society. And so having an uncontrollable danger like this is a complete shock to the system, and I think it's going to take time to come out of it. And I'm hopeful sooner rather than later.” - Doug Stokes

    [12:35] - “It's impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the future. We were in the trenches dealing with human psychology and individuals that were dealing with some very stressful situations in March of 2020, and nobody could've forecasted that we were going to run into a pandemic.” - Greg Stokes

    [22:17] - “As an investor, if you can't take the 10% or maybe even 20% correction in stocks─because it's going to happen statistically once every year with 10% and once every six years at 20%─then what's your alternative?” - Doug Stokes


    Links 

    • How bad are Wall Street forecasts? Really bad by Morgan Housel | USAToday
    • Warren Buffett
    • NFL
    • US Senator Joe Manchin
    • S&P500
    • @fivethirtyeight on Twitter
    • New York Times

    • Connect with our hosts

      • Doug Stokes
      • Greg Stokes
      • Stokes Family Office

      • Subscribe and stay in touch

        • Apple Podcasts
        • Spotify
        • Google Podcasts
        • LagniappePodcast.com

        • Disclosure

          The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

          ...more
          View all episodesView all episodes
          Download on the App Store

          LagniappeBy Stokes Family Office

          • 4.9
          • 4.9
          • 4.9
          • 4.9
          • 4.9

          4.9

          35 ratings


          More shows like Lagniappe

          View all
          Stuff You Should Know by iHeartPodcasts

          Stuff You Should Know

          78,326 Listeners

          The Bill Simmons Podcast by The Ringer

          The Bill Simmons Podcast

          30,231 Listeners

          Odd Lots by Bloomberg

          Odd Lots

          1,897 Listeners

          Pardon My Take by Barstool Sports

          Pardon My Take

          82,117 Listeners

          Pod Save America by Crooked Media

          Pod Save America

          87,588 Listeners

          The Daily by The New York Times

          The Daily

          112,734 Listeners

          Cover 3 College Football by CBS Sports, College Football, Football, CFB, College Football Picks

          Cover 3 College Football

          4,151 Listeners

          Animal Spirits Podcast by The Compound

          Animal Spirits Podcast

          2,021 Listeners

          The Compound and Friends by The Compound

          The Compound and Friends

          2,113 Listeners

          SVPod by ESPN, Omaha Productions, Scott Van Pelt

          SVPod

          1,828 Listeners

          All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg by All-In Podcast, LLC

          All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

          9,901 Listeners

          Ask The Compound by The Compound

          Ask The Compound

          320 Listeners