Which macroeconomic tailwinds are weakening and potentially turning into headwinds? Why may it now be easier to find a signal amid the economic noise? And what are the implications for credit investors? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Armen Panossian (incoming co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit), Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Wayne Dahl (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 4Q2023: The Goldilocks Trap.

In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss the “Goldilocks thinking” prevalent in today’s markets, highlighting the potential pitfalls and opportunities it’s creating. At a time when several long- and short-term economic tailwinds appear to be weakening, they consider the risk of assuming that everything will be just fine.

You can read the 4Q2023 PCQ here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/performing-credit-quarterly-4q2023-the-goldilocks-trap).

What is a “normal” investment environment? What might a recession in 2024 mean for liquid credit?  What’s happening in life sciences lending today? Find out by listening to the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations with Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), David Rosenberg (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Aman Kumar (Co-Portfolio Manager, Life Sciences Lending). They discuss topics from the December edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters and consider what investors should focus on as we enter 2024 – and what remains unknowable.

In 2023, credit markets have experienced dramatic swings in investor sentiment, unexpected geopolitical events, and the second consecutive year of rising interest rates. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts consider where opportunities and risks are emerging in various assets classes – including high yield bonds, CLOs, and European real estate – and co-chairman Howard Marks considers what “normal” may mean in this unsettled environment.

You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/december-2023-edition-roundup.pdf?sfvrsn=d67b5166_8).

Special guest Annie Duke (former professional poker player, best-selling author) joins Howard Marks to discuss ideas from her book Thinking in Bets and Howard’s memo You Bet!  They explore luck, decision quality, uncertainty, and more in this special episode of The Insight: Conversations.

Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) and Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) discuss topics related to Howard’s latest memo, Further Thoughts on Sea Change, and Oaktree’s recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2023 in this crossover episode of The Insight: Conversations and Behind the Memo. They consider the implications of the potential sea change reshaping the investment environment, the tail risks building in today’s markets, and what it means to be in a full return world.

In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Oaktree argues that investors analyzing today’s leveraged credit markets should focus less on average risk and more on tail risk, as this segment of the market is currently much more vulnerable than usual. Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) explore the risks and opportunities for credit investors if this tail risk becomes a tail reality.

You can read the 3Q2023 PCQ here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/performing-credit-quarterly-3q2023.pdf?sfvrsn=6bf05166_3).

How have credit investors been successfully navigating the volatile interest rate environment?  Which sectors currently look attractive to opportunistic credit investors?  What are some of the major misconceptions about today’s commercial real estate market?  In this episode of The Insight: Conversations, Wayne Dahl (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), Robert O’Leary (Portfolio Manager, Global Opportunities), and Mark Jacobs (Co-Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Income) discuss topics from the September edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktrees-quarterly-letters-september-2023-edition) and explain what it means to be in a credit picker’s market.

We may be in the first act of what could be a long drama unfolding across markets, as companies face the prospect of higher-for-longer borrowing costs and investors adjust to a new environment in which rigorous credit analysis, not inexpensive debt, will likely be the key to generating superior returns. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree portfolio managers look beyond headline numbers and economic noise to identify the trends reshaping opportunity sets today.

You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/september-2023-edition-roundup.pdf).

Learn about the current state of European credit and the dramatic changes seen over the last year in this thought-provoking discussion with Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European Senior Loans and European High Yield Bonds), and Nael Khatoun (Head of European Private Debt).  They consider the challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks posed by geopolitics and artificial intelligence, and the quality advantage that exists in European markets.