The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahnke break down Lululemon (ticker: LULU), an iconic brand famous for pioneering the now ubiquitous athleisure industry. Lululemon has a fiercely loyal customer base, with industry-leading rates of repeat customers, sales per square foot of retail space, and very little need for discounting, if any.

In this episode, you’ll learn about why the market has soured on this powerful brand, despite incredible success growing internationally, leaving its P/E ratio at a relatively low 15-16x. You’ll also learn about how Lululemon controls all of its touchpoints with customers, selling primarily DTC, as opposed to wholesale like Nike and Adidas do, as well as whether LULU is attractively valued today, plus so much more!

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 – Intro

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Daniel & Shawn dive into Remitly, the digital remittance platform aiming to disrupt a $2 trillion global market. After years of prioritizing customer acquisition and corridor expansion over profits, Remitly is now approaching a critical inflection point, one where scale, margin leverage, and cash generation could unlock a new phase of investor confidence. But there are risks as well: crypto-native challengers, regulatory uncertainty, and broader concerns about the remittance industry all raise the question of whether the upside is worth the risk.

Here, they unpack Remitly’s moat, including its direct payout network, risk engine, and customer trust, and assess whether these factors are enough to fend off cheaper, faster payment rails, such as stablecoins. They walk through the company’s unit economics and what the valuation model implies under both steady-state and high-growth scenarios. Along the way, they compare Remitly’s customer lock-in strategy to Booking.com, examine the remittance corridor dynamics in India, the Philippines, and Latin America, and debate whether this is a misunderstood fintech with enduring staying power or a product ripe for crypto disruption.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 – Intro

01:08 – How the remittance market works

01:50 – Why Western Union struggles to compete with Remitly

02:16 – Why and how Remitly was founded

04:48 – What risks Remitly faces

05:01 – How stablecoins could disrupt the remittance industry

11:34 – What competitive advantages Remitly has

17:16 – What digital-first companies compete with Remitly

24:37 – Why scale is everything in the payments sector

27:56 – Whether Remitly is attractively valued at its current levels

29:27 – Whether Shawn & Daniel add RELY to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn and Daniel break down The Trade Desk (ticker: TTD), a pure-play bet on  the future of digital advertising, focusing specifically on supporting ad buyers who want to get the most value per impression across the so-called “Open Internet.” The Trade Desk has compounded its stock at 43% a year since its IPO almost a decade ago, and in that same period, it has grown revenues at an incredible rate of 50% a year.

Learn about where TTD fits into the programmatic advertising ecosystem, why the company has fewer conflicts of interest than its competitors, how The Trade Desk is positioned to take advantage of antitrust regulatory enforcement against Google,  what they’re trying to do to replace 3rd-party cookies tracking, plus so much more!

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

04:38 - What is TTD’s niche in programmatic digital advertising

11:58 - Who are the major players in the digital advertising landscape

12:16 - How advertising across the internet has evolved over time

31:36 - What is the “Open Internet” and how it differs from “Walled Gardens”

36:42 - Why TTD has built its own alternative to 3rd‑party cookies

45:22 - What needs to happen to realize TTD’s vision for the future of programmatic advertising

01:05:27 - Why regulators are taking action against Google’s ad management unit, and how TTD could benefit from that

01:16:38 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add TTD to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley dive into PayPal’s post-pandemic reset, tracing the fintech pioneer’s slide from market darling to value-story candidate. Once lifted by lockdown spending and eBay tailwinds, PayPal has seen its growth stall, its take-rate decline, and investors seem to have given up on it. In this episode, Shawn and Daniel unpack whether new CEO Alex Chriss’s “profitable growth” playbook, Fastlane one-click checkout, a margin-focused Braintree overhaul, and fresh bets on Ads and the PYUSD stablecoin, can restore momentum.

They also debate how realistic PayPal’s ambitious goals for the future are, what a sustained 6% share shrink via buybacks does for long-term EPS, how the new management team is incentivized, and whether PayPal’s consumer moat still matters in an Apple-Pay world.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahnke break down Roku (ticker: ROKU), an aggregator of digital content in the world of TV streaming, with a footprint in nearly 90 million households. Roku is the gateway to streaming, and its devices have famously turned any TV into a Smart TV, but now Roku does much more than that.

In this episode, you’ll learn why the market has soured on Roku, how much its honeypot of first-party data could be worth, how Roku makes money for driving subscriptions to services like Disney+, how Roku is monetizing its uniquely positioned business, what has powered The Roku Channel’s surge toward ad-supported streaming dominance, plus so much more!

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a closer look at Estée Lauder’s turbulent turnaround, tracing the beauty giant’s fall from pandemic favorite to contrarian play. After years of strong growth, the company was hit by an inventory pileup, the collapse of China’s daigou shopping channel, and a broader slowdown in its most important market. In this episode, they explore whether the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy and the arrival of new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie can reignite growth through cost savings, better channel mix, and stronger appeal to younger consumers.

Daniel and Shawn debate how realistic a turnaround is, whether the risk/reward resembles Nike’s recent playbook, and what needs to go right for Estée Lauder to reclaim its former strength. They also touch on wider beauty industry trends, the role of R&D as a competitive moat, internal tensions within the Lauder family, and the growing strategic weight of China for global fashion and cosmetics brands.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

05:29 - How Estée Lauder built the beauty giant

13:42 - Why Estée Lauder’s business and stock fell so dramatically

27:22 - How Social Media and personal brands changed the beauty industry

14:03 - Why China played a major part in the company’s rise and fall

42:23 - How the family drama caused a management crisis

46:26 - How Estée Lauder plans to rise to the industry’s top again

55:08 - Whether Estée Lauder is attractively valued at its current levels

1:00:08 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add EL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke break down LVMH (ticker: MC), an iconic luxury goods empire with brands ranging from Louis Vuitton to Moët, Dior, Chandon, Hennessy, Tiffany, Bulgari, and Tag Heur, among others. It’s a powerful conglomerate built by one of the world’s richest men, Bernard Arnault, known as the “wolf in cashmere” for his ruthless consolidation of power in the luxury industry.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Arnault built the LVMH empire, what makes “true luxury” so special and different from other types of businesses, the parallels between LVMH and Berkshire Hathaway, what the backbone of this conglomerate is, whether there’s actually a backdoor way to buy LVMH shares at a 20% discount, whether the stock is currently fairly valued, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

15:57 - How Arnault got his start and took control of LVMH.

20:56 - What inspired Arnault to build a luxury conglomerate.

24:05 - How LVMH benefits from economies of scale.

30:31 - Which brands drive business the most.

51:59 - What factors matter most in luxury purchases.

56:07 - What are the most important markets for luxury goods?

01:00:59 - Whether the backdoor way to buy LVMH shares at a discount is too good to be true.

01:08:03 - Whether LVMH is fairly valued and whether it’s added to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Daniel and Shawn step back for a mid-year review of the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, revisiting each holding to test the strength of their original theses and weigh what’s changed. From ride-hailing to beauty retail, this episode covers the full lineup: why Uber’s cross-sell flywheel and Waymo partnership reinforce its moat; how Alphabet’s latest earnings measure up against the growing threat of AI-native search; and why Reddit may succeed where Snapchat struggled, turning engagement into monetisation.

You’ll hear updates on Q1 earnings, commentary on management execution, and discussions on whether current valuations still offer upside or warrant trimming. They re-evaluate Airbnb’s evolving strategy as it expands into services and experiences, break down Ulta Beauty’s standout results, and revisit early convictions in new names like Nubank.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

03:14 - Why the Ulta Beauty position was being trimmed

17:47 - How Alphabet is holding up against AI competition

28:10 - Why Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles

58:57 - How Airbnb overcomes regulatory hurdles and expands into experiences

1:06:17 - How Adobe used the AI revolution to strengthen its ecosystem

1:10:10 - Why Reddit might become more of a second Meta than a second Snapchat

1:20:46 - How Nike could overcome the recent headwinds

1:27:39 - Why initiating a position in Nubank is worth the risks

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahnke break down Smith & Wesson (ticker: SWBI), an iconic firearms manufacturer with 170+ years of history. Smith & Wesson is no compounder, though. It’s an okay business, at best, but Shawn and Daniel want to determine whether this often-overlooked stock is cheaply priced.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Smith & Wesson has navigated the volatile sales cycle in firearms, what factors can drive the biggest swings in firearms sales, whether Smith & Wesson’s juicy dividend is sustainable, the biggest political and legal risks facing this company, what famous investor owns the stock, how Smith & Wesson shares can help an investor hedge societal disruptions, and whether Smith & Wesson is attractively valued on a normalized earnings basis plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

02:47 - The historic origins behind this company that predates the Civil War.

06:12 - Why “Sin” stocks can offer attractive returns from discounted valuations.

10:54 - What drives Smith & Wesson’s business.

23:17 - How the company navigates a range of factors that can impact it, from regulation to litigation, that are largely beyond its control.

35:17 - How the company’s relocation of its headquarters has added to its financial stress.

46:11 - The biggest challenges of investing in a “mean reversion” bet like Smith & Wesson.

01:01:15 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add SWBI to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

01:05:38 - Why Smith & Wesson may be a hedge against societal disruptions.

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley turn their focus to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ticker: TSM) — the quiet engine powering nearly every device we touch and the global AI boom. Pioneering the pure-play foundry model, TSMC went from a government-backed experiment in the late 1980s to controlling more than 90 % of the world’s leading-edge chip production, fabricating Apple’s A- and M-series processors, Nvidia’s AI GPUs, and virtually every 3nm part on the planet.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Morris Chang’s radical bet rewired the semiconductor industry, why extreme scale and EUV mastery give TSMC a moat rival chipmakers can’t cross, how its Arizona and Japan fabs fit into a strategy shaped by China-Taiwan tension, and how wafer volumes, node mix, and multi-billion-dollar capex translate into free-cash-flow and ROIIC. Daniel and Shawn also debate the right way to price the ever-present geopolitical “wipe-out” tail risk, and ask whether today’s market price offers a margin of safety on what could be the most important company in the world.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

07:39 - How TSMC evolved from a government-backed project to a trillion-dollar company

16:10 - Where TSMC’s dominance comes from

31:27 - What moat protects TSMC’s business

39:54 - What the competitive landscape looks like

43:55 - Where future growth is coming from

49:45 - How geopolitical risk is impacting TSMC

1:03:25 - Whether TSMC is attractively valued at its current levels

1:09:18 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add TSM to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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