The IRF Podcast

In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a more bifurcated world. In conclusion Diana considers how the economic developments in China are impacting on the rest of the world, especially with respect to the global commodity markets.

Track record page - https://bit.ly/4gcJJ60

Diana’s X profile – https://bit.ly/3X7pKgB

In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the Bank of England.

Andrew Hunt is a former Chief International Economist at Dresdner RCM Global Investors. In 2001 he set up his own company, Andrew Hunt Economics, to provide economic commentary and insight on the major issues of the day to hedge funds, mainstream asset managers, family offices, non-financial companies and the management of major banks.

In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older people (who consume less). Several major markets – including China, Japan, Italy, Germany and South Korea – have ageing and declining populations already. According to Shamil, these demographic shifts will have a significant impact on investment performance as demand weakens and wage inflation rises. He also highlights where he sees the most attractive investment opportunities from a demographic perspective.

Primaresearch provides demographic analysis on investment opportunities globally. Their standardised demographic risk measure allows investors to compare these risks across companies and sectors. Primaresearch also provides fundamental, bottom-up research on consumer-facing companies in South Africa.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. 

In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half of 2024 and discusses the outlook for the second half of this year. In the currency markets, he explains that the dollar’s trade-weighted index is at a critical level and discusses some of the key risk factors. With respect to the outlook for US and UK interest rates and bond yields, Ron’s cyclical analysis points to a prolonged period of ‘higher-for-longer’ rolling volatility, which will rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. In addition, he points out that the US stock market has shown signs of irrational exuberance and in the near term is vulnerable to “a triple whammy of headwinds”. In the UK, the FTSE 100 Index is seen as being rangebound between 8100 – 8300 with upside potential, but perhaps more so for the FTSE 250 Index. Other markets that look particularly interesting include China and Japan. Ron also identifies some of his preferred opportunities in the commodity markets, including gold and silver.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.

In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central bank actions in a more fragile financial environment. In addition, Peter assesses the probable impact of these various monetary policy decisions on the currency and other financial markets in the next 6 – 18 months.

Peter Warburton has a long and distinguished career as a leading economist in the financial sector, previously working for top firms, including Robert Fleming and Lehman Brothers. He has been a member of the IEA’s “Shadow Monetary Policy Committee” since its inception in 1997. In addition, Peter is Managing Director of Halkin Services, a global risk analysis & asset allocation service.

Founded in 1996, Economic Perspectives is an independent global macro-financial research company that challenges conventional thinking and provides valuable investment insights for professional investors.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence.

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In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia’s attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound impact on Germany’s export-orientated economy, where the manufacturing sector now needs to evolve and adapt to changing geopolitical and technological circumstances. He points out that these factors are hampering the growth potential in Germany and across the EU.

Wolfgang then considers both the successes and the failures of the Euro single currency over the past 25 years. Looking forward, he indicates how the Euro is likely to perform from hereon in conjunction with the probable stance of the ECB’s monetary policy. Wolfgang also assesses what is at stake from the result of this year’s elections to the European parliament. In addition, he highlights the investment opportunities in Europe’s venture capital sector, but warns against investing in some of the large established companies in the automobile and chemical sectors.

Wolfgang Munchau founded Eurointelligence in 2006 and is widely considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Eurozone. Eurointelligence provides a specialist service for news and analysis of the EU and eurozone in a global context. Their flagship product, Eurointelligence Professional, offers filtered and time-saving access to important information from a wide network of national and international sources.

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.

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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discusses the extent to which these inflationary factors are coming into play in 2024-2025. He considers what this means for fiscal policies, monetary policies and for economic growth in the G7 economies in the longer run. Manoj discusses the implications for the financial markets in several of the main advanced economies and emerging markets. He concludes with an assessment of some of the best investment opportunities in the currency, bond and equity markets, as well as pointing out what he would avoid at present.

Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.

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ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.

In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional elections in early November. They point out that the stimulative fiscal policy and potentially lower interest rates should support economic activity this year, but there is no feel-good factor about the US economy in the way that there was before the global Covid pandemic.

They highlight the key policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans and emphasise the importance of the key battleground states in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. Their state-by-state analysis suggests that President Biden could achieve a narrow victory, which could then cause some initial social instability given the fervour of many Trump supporters.

David and Chris then discuss the main economic and geopolitical challenges that the USA will likely face in 2025 and beyond. In conclusion they highlight some of the attractions of the USA from an investment perspective.

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy.

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In his assessment, Nicholas discusses the social and political context and draws on a series of meetings from his recent extensive fact-finding visit to Argentina, to incorporate the latest developments and outline the key potential scenarios for the coming months.

Nicholas Watson is a Managing Director at Teneo responsible for coverage of the Spanish-speaking Latin American economies. Teneo is a global CEO advisory firm offering diversified services that include strategic communications, financial advisory, management consulting and risk advisory. Teneo’s geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services target political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets. They identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios to help clients incorporate political futures into their strategic planning.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.

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In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K-wave (which is expected to peak in approximately 2030 or 2031) for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and what this means for empires in decline (such as USA and the EU) and empires that are rising (such as China and India). In the next few years, this has substantial inflationary ramifications for commodities, bonds, equities and currencies, particularly the US dollar. He outlines the way that rising geopolitical conflicts could lead to an escalation of the ongoing warfare between autocracies and democracies. This has dramatic consequences for global asset allocation decisions and favours an overweight investment in gold and many other commodities.

David’s long career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict both the geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets.

Global Forecaster provides actionable real-time market analysis combined with a unique geopolitical overview.