David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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This podcast assesses the longer-term cyclical factors that indicate global financial markets could reach a major turning point in 2026 or later in this decade. Ron discusses the outlook for inflation and the various elements that could create an echo of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. This has further bullish implications for the prices of gold and silver.

Ron then explains his concerns about the rapidly rising A.I.-related demand for energy, which is now outstripping the predicted supply trends. He also assesses the outlook for interest rates, government bond yield and world stock markets, before concluding with a discussion of the prospects for the US dollar and some other key currencies in the foreign exchange markets.

Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.

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In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical and structural themes that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. He explains why he thinks that the overall deflationary forces within the Chinese economy may be easing and why there is scope for some cautious optimism about China’s economic outlook relative to the current downbeat consensus expectations.

Paul then highlights the key issues that are impacting on the main currencies in the region, noting the significance of the weakness of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen in recent years. He goes on to discuss the two shocks that have had an impact on Japan’s economy, the US tariff shock and the pick-up in the annual rate of Japanese inflation. He assesses what these shocks could mean in terms of the policies of the new prime minister, with respect to Japan’s interest rates and the exchange rate, given the more stimulative stance of fiscal policy. Paul then discusses the impact of the global A.I. trend on the regional semiconductor sector in general, and on the Taiwanese economy and the South Korean economy in particular.

Paul Cavey has been analysing the economies of East Asia, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously Paul was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

David Osman of IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster.

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In this podcast they discuss David Murrin's ‘5 Stages of Empire’ model and the influence of longer run cyclical trends on geopolitical risks, political factors, the world economic outlook and the prospects for the global financial markets.

David assesses the deep-seated problems in the USA and the damage that President Trump’s tariffs and other policies are doing to the country’s international reputation. He points out that this has major implications for the value of the US dollar and its role as the world’s reserve currency.

David also explains the basis for his dramatic views about the dangers of Chinese expansionism in northeast Asia and the rising risks of a wider war in the Middle East, as well as the potential for an escalation of Russia’s hostile actions in Europe.

David says this has put us on the cusp of World War 3, pitting the West against hostile actions by the “Axis of Autocracy”. Meanwhile, he points out that the unfolding of a commodity super cycle will have a profound impact on global inflation, bond markets and cryptocurrencies. David notes that this helps to explain the recent sharp increase in the price of gold into overbought territory. In these circumstances, David sees the prospects for world stock markets becoming increasingly problematic, particularly the outlook for the US stock market and its dominant AI investment theme.

David Murrin has done more than most to link long-run historic trends and human behaviour to successful investment decisions. David is a polymath who is renowned for his development of a unique set of behavioural models whilst at JP Morgan, which have been used to predict financial markets in an effective and profitable way. These models provided the foundation for his multi-decade career in the hedge fund industry.

Global Forecaster was established by David in 2019 to provide a unique, top-down, geopolitical overview and actionable real-time market analysis within a risk framework, and with a focus on profitable short-term trading opportunities, as well as longer-term asset allocation decisions in the global financial markets.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.

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In this podcast they discuss the increasing focus on fiscal policy relative to monetary policy in the highly-indebted developed world and the consequent growth in the importance of political risk analysis. 

Helen then assesses some of the geopolitical, political and economic risk factors that will influence the medium-term outlook for the global financial markets. Focusing on Japan, France, Germany, the UK and the USA, she highlights various factors that point towards the mispricing of risks and opportunities in the bond, equity and currency markets, as well as the prospects for the gold price.

Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors.

Blonde Money was established in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm to bring together the worlds of politics and finance. Helen and her team analyse and monitor mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Dimitris Valatsas, the Chief Economist at Auroa Macro Strategies.

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In this podcast they discuss the prospects for US economy and the financial markets. Dimitris considers the impact of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies on a weakening labour market. He also assesses the outlook for US monetary policy with particular reference to the prospective erosion of the central bank’s independence and what this would mean for inflation and interest rates.

Dimitris reviews the legal challenge to President Trump’s tariff policies and what this could mean for fiscal policy, given the projected high level of the federal budget deficit. He then discusses the outlook for the US dollar and concludes with an assessment of the importance of the A.I. investment theme for the economy and the stock market.

Dimitris Valatsas has over a decade of experience advising asset managers, hedge funds, family offices, and other financial institutions on macroeconomic and market developments, focusing on the USA and Europe.

Aurora Macro Strategies provides actionable insights on global macroeconomics, geopolitics and policies. The AMS team has decades of experience advising investors across developed and emerging markets. Their research and advisory process is organised around four central pillars: Neutrality, Confidentiality, Forward Thinking analysis and a Diversity of viewpoints.

David Osman of IRF is joined by James Burdass, the Managing Partner at Commodity Intelligence to discuss the evolving role of commodities in a global multi-asset portfolio.

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In doing so, he assesses the importance for investors of the way that the global markets for many individual commodities are fracturing and becoming more fragmented with regional factors becoming more important. James says heightened geopolitical risk factors, a proliferation of US tariffs, distortions to international trade and disruptions to global supply chains have created a “New World Order” that is having a significant impact on the nature of investment in the commodity markets. He discusses what this means for investors in precious metals and the oil and gas markets, as well as some of the key base metals and soft commodities.

Commodity Intelligence LLP was established in 2008. James Burdass became the Managing Partner and owner of the business in 2024, having previously been the Chairman since 2021. James’s has a career that has spanned more than 25 years in commodities research, including 14 years on the buy side. 

Commodity Intelligence provides specialist advice on Global Commodity Markets and Equities. Their approach is based on the use of Artificial Intelligence to source information, predominantly from the internet, to identify key themes before traditional financial media.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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In this episode they discuss the longer run cyclical trends and other factors that are likely to influence the global financial markets during the remainder of this year and beyond. Ron outlines how, in the near term, financial markets are generally seen as being in a volatile trading range, due in part to the ongoing vagaries of US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, he assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets.

In the currency markets, Ron discusses the outlook for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and some of the dollar’s key cross rates. In the bond markets, he explains the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the inflationary pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the continuing upside potential and the cyclical downside risks in the US and UK stock markets, as well as identifying some other stock markets that are particularly attractive at present.

Ron also assesses the prospects for gold and other important commodities. With respect to the cryptocurrency markets, he discusses the emerging importance of Bitcoin and Ethereum as macro hedge safe haven plays. Ron concludes with an assessment of the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter 3-5 year business cycle and discusses the potential for a big shift in the global financial markets whereby capital preservation becomes an important focus.

Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Hamza Ghani, the Head of Crypto Research at ABCG Research.

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In this podcast, Hamza explains the rapidly evolving crypto asset landscape from Bitcoin and altcoins to stablecoins and tokenized instruments. In doing so, he reviews the emerging regulatory environment and discusses other important factors, such as upgrades to the blockchain infrastructure and increasing institutional engagement in crypto assets. Hamza then sets out the way that a cryptocurrency can be analysed and forecast. He discusses his medium-term predictions for the price of Bitcoin in the current upcycle and subsequent downswing, thereby identifying a key potential buying opportunity for the next five years. Hamza puts crypto in the context of their global multi-asset allocation recommendations and identifies those crypto investment opportunities that look most attractive and those that are unattractive.

ABCG Research specialises in alternative investments and macroeconomic research, providing deep insights, market trends and data-driven analysis to support strategic decision-making in a dynamic global economy. With a focus on precision and innovation, they provide businesses and investors with actionable intelligence.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.

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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the global structural factors that are pointing towards a potential regime change in the rate of inflation, with reference to such factors as ageing populations, immigration policies, deglobalisation and artificial intelligence. He assesses the extent to which the US breakeven rate currently reflects the medium-term inflationary risks. Manoj reviews these risks with particular reference to US fiscal and tariff policies, as well as the heterodox nature of President Trump’s policy agenda. He then assesses the problems that face the Federal Reserve as it tries to carry out its dual mandate to contain inflation and to maximise employment. Manoj concludes with an assessment for global asset allocators of the outlook for interest rates, bond yields, equities, currencies and some investment opportunities in the US, UK, EU, Japan and several of the Emerging Markets.

Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 3-6-12-18 month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes. In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a highly influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”.

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.

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In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”.

From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump’s approach to the Sino-US relationship, the Russian war in Ukraine and the risks of a wider military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the USA. She assesses the potential impact of his tariff policies on the US economy and elsewhere, with particular reference to the volatile impact on the financial markets. Helen then discusses some of the key factors influencing the outlook for US monetary policy and the US bond market, before focusing on the prospects for the US stock market and the US dollar. In conclusion, Helen assesses the longer-term implications for the durability of the USA’s leading role in the world.

Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. She is a CFA charter holder and serves on the UK board of the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute. Helen is also a Freeman of the City of London and has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University.

Blonde Money was stablished in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU. This ranges from political risks (such as those related to Brexit, the USA, China and Russia) to structural market instabilities (such as those created by bank failures or by the derivative markets).