David Osman of IRF is joined by James Burdass, the Managing Partner at Commodity Intelligence to discuss the evolving role of commodities in a global multi-asset portfolio.

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In doing so, he assesses the importance for investors of the way that the global markets for many individual commodities are fracturing and becoming more fragmented with regional factors becoming more important. James says heightened geopolitical risk factors, a proliferation of US tariffs, distortions to international trade and disruptions to global supply chains have created a “New World Order” that is having a significant impact on the nature of investment in the commodity markets. He discusses what this means for investors in precious metals and the oil and gas markets, as well as some of the key base metals and soft commodities.

Commodity Intelligence LLP was established in 2008. James Burdass became the Managing Partner and owner of the business in 2024, having previously been the Chairman since 2021. James’s has a career that has spanned more than 25 years in commodities research, including 14 years on the buy side. 

Commodity Intelligence provides specialist advice on Global Commodity Markets and Equities. Their approach is based on the use of Artificial Intelligence to source information, predominantly from the internet, to identify key themes before traditional financial media.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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In this episode they discuss the longer run cyclical trends and other factors that are likely to influence the global financial markets during the remainder of this year and beyond. Ron outlines how, in the near term, financial markets are generally seen as being in a volatile trading range, due in part to the ongoing vagaries of US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, he assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets.

In the currency markets, Ron discusses the outlook for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and some of the dollar’s key cross rates. In the bond markets, he explains the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the inflationary pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the continuing upside potential and the cyclical downside risks in the US and UK stock markets, as well as identifying some other stock markets that are particularly attractive at present.

Ron also assesses the prospects for gold and other important commodities. With respect to the cryptocurrency markets, he discusses the emerging importance of Bitcoin and Ethereum as macro hedge safe haven plays. Ron concludes with an assessment of the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter 3-5 year business cycle and discusses the potential for a big shift in the global financial markets whereby capital preservation becomes an important focus.

Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Hamza Ghani, the Head of Crypto Research at ABCG Research.

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In this podcast, Hamza explains the rapidly evolving crypto asset landscape from Bitcoin and altcoins to stablecoins and tokenized instruments. In doing so, he reviews the emerging regulatory environment and discusses other important factors, such as upgrades to the blockchain infrastructure and increasing institutional engagement in crypto assets. Hamza then sets out the way that a cryptocurrency can be analysed and forecast. He discusses his medium-term predictions for the price of Bitcoin in the current upcycle and subsequent downswing, thereby identifying a key potential buying opportunity for the next five years. Hamza puts crypto in the context of their global multi-asset allocation recommendations and identifies those crypto investment opportunities that look most attractive and those that are unattractive.

ABCG Research specialises in alternative investments and macroeconomic research, providing deep insights, market trends and data-driven analysis to support strategic decision-making in a dynamic global economy. With a focus on precision and innovation, they provide businesses and investors with actionable intelligence.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.

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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the global structural factors that are pointing towards a potential regime change in the rate of inflation, with reference to such factors as ageing populations, immigration policies, deglobalisation and artificial intelligence. He assesses the extent to which the US breakeven rate currently reflects the medium-term inflationary risks. Manoj reviews these risks with particular reference to US fiscal and tariff policies, as well as the heterodox nature of President Trump’s policy agenda. He then assesses the problems that face the Federal Reserve as it tries to carry out its dual mandate to contain inflation and to maximise employment. Manoj concludes with an assessment for global asset allocators of the outlook for interest rates, bond yields, equities, currencies and some investment opportunities in the US, UK, EU, Japan and several of the Emerging Markets.

Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 3-6-12-18 month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes. In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a highly influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”.

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.

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In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”.

From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump’s approach to the Sino-US relationship, the Russian war in Ukraine and the risks of a wider military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the USA. She assesses the potential impact of his tariff policies on the US economy and elsewhere, with particular reference to the volatile impact on the financial markets. Helen then discusses some of the key factors influencing the outlook for US monetary policy and the US bond market, before focusing on the prospects for the US stock market and the US dollar. In conclusion, Helen assesses the longer-term implications for the durability of the USA’s leading role in the world.

Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. She is a CFA charter holder and serves on the UK board of the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute. Helen is also a Freeman of the City of London and has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University.

Blonde Money was stablished in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU. This ranges from political risks (such as those related to Brexit, the USA, China and Russia) to structural market instabilities (such as those created by bank failures or by the derivative markets).

David Osman of IRF is joined by Jonathan Wilmot of Wilmot ML.

In this podcast, Jonathan Wilmot discusses the future development of artificial intelligence with particular reference to the USA, China and the broader Macro implications. He then assesses President Trump’s agenda for his second term and notes that Trump is “an old man in a big hurry”. This is creating some uncertainties, not least the potential for high tariffs to cause some economic and financial disruption. Jonathan reviews the outlook for US economic growth, inflation and interest rates. He assesses the ramifications for the bond and stock markets, before concluding with an assessment of where we are in relation to his analysis of the long-term trends and cycles over the past two centuries.

Jonathan Wilmot is a former FX Strategist at Bank of America, Fixed Income Strategist at Merrill Lynch and Chief Global Strategist at Credit Suisse. He has been described as “one of the brightest minds on Wall Street”. In 2017 Jonathan established his own Macro-research boutique and AI investment start up. Wilmot ML is the research arm of XAI Asset Management. Their primary focus is on the policy and market implications of the cycle in global growth and risk appetite, as well as the drivers of long-term structural change in the world economy and geopolitics.

In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views.

In the currency markets, Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar’s main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen.

In the bond markets, Ron discusses the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the upside potential and asymmetric cyclical downside risks in the US, UK and other key stock markets.

Ron concludes with an assessment of the prospects for gold and some of the other important commodities with reference to the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter cyclical trends, including those influencing the main cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals.

In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices very uncertain this year, not least because potential developments in the Ukraine, in the Middle East and with US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively high, but possibly with a slight downside bias, given the risk of a global economic recession commencing later this year or in 2026. Jeffrey then highlights his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.

In conclusion, Jeffrey discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have an overweight position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2025.

Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research.

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In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila then assesses the outlook for world public debt in the next 5 years, and explains what this could mean for government and corporate bond markets. Focusing next on Asia, she discusses some of the key aspects of the outlook for the economies and financial markets in Japan, India, China and Taiwan.

Sharmila Whelan is a very experienced global geopolitical-macro strategist, who has been advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations for nearly three decades. Sharmila has held prominent roles for leading firms in London and Hong Kong, including Merryll Lynch/Bank of America, CLSA, BP and Altheia Capital. She has also counselled various governmental bodies and is a frequent contributor to the financial media, including Bloomberg, the BBC and CNBC.

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy, which is based in London.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.

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In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could impact on the East Asian region. He compares the situation now to that in the mid-1980s at the time of the Plaza Accord currency agreement. Paul explains what is likely to be different in 2025, with particular reference to the outlook for interest rates and the currency exchange rates versus the US dollar. Paul concludes with an assessment of some of the longer-term demographic and technological trends that are influencing the region.

Paul Cavey has been analysing the North East Asian Economies, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. He was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.