The IRF Podcast

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

In this podcast Ron explains why the trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) is likely to depreciate and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. He then discusses the prospects for the government bond markets in the US and UK with reference to the recent trends in 10-year yields and the economic outlook.

With respect to the US stock market, Ron identifies the factors that have caused the US S&P 500 Index to become extremely overbought and discusses the potential for this to continue or unwind in 2024. He points out that the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 8,000 trading range that has been established for several years, however he foresees downside risks that could provide a healthy correction. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and foresees the major uptrend in the Nikkei 225 Index continuing and eventually reaching a new all-time-high above the psychologically important 40,000 level. In conclusion, he discusses the performance of various commodities and highlights the bullish outlook for gold.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron William is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke Environmental, Social & Governance-related research and investment advice.

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In this podcast Lenka Martinek reviews the performance of ESG investments in 2023 and highlights the influence of global geopolitical and macroeconomic factors on sustainable portfolios. She identifies some of the best and worst ESG investment themes over the past year. Lenka then discusses the limited impact of the recent COP28 annual climate summit meeting, even though she believes that the various consequences of climate change are becoming too big to ignore. In addition, Lenka discusses the various opportunities and risks that she expects to be most important for sustainable strategies and ESG investment portfolios during 2024. In conclusion, Lenka considers the growing importance of thematic investing from a longer term perspective and highlights some of the themes within the ESG space that should continue to do well in the future.

Founded in 2018, Sustainable Market Strategies is an Independent Investment Strategy Research Service that tracks global developments in the ESG and Impact-Investing space. SMS focuses on sustainable investment trends, taking a global, top-down and thematic approach, whilst tailoring their views to global market conditions. SMS publishes forward-looking, independent and actionable investment research. Their expert advice is based on a comprehensive knowledge of ESG megatrends, and how these trends can be useful to better understand the markets and to make profitable investment decisions.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst of Intertemporal Economics.

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Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018. Previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialised in geopolitical event risk, monetary policy, labour markets and energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in various positions across Wall Street, including working with high-growth technology firms raising capital, structuring options trades and valuing asset-backed securities.

Intertemporal Economics uses an in-depth analytical framework, which is based on microeconomic foundations. This provides an understanding of endogenous factors and patterns of human behaviour that cannot be analysed using quantitative techniques alone. The firm’s research focuses on topics affecting economics, interest rates and asset prices in developed markets.

In this podcast, Brian discusses the importance of certain trends in the US labour market and their prospective implications for both inflation and economic growth. He then assesses the troubled outlook for monetary and fiscal policy ahead of the US presidential election next November. Before reviewing the political and geopolitical landscape, he discusses the prospects for the US dollar, the potentially volatile outlook for the bond market and the likely divergent trends in the stock market.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group.

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Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis.

In this podcast Jeff provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity prices in the near term and in the longer run. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

In the energy sector, Jeff focuses on the various factors influencing the outlook for the prices of crude oil and natural gas. He then highlights his most preferred and least preferred commodities in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.

In conclusion, Jeff discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why this is projected to continue to increase in the longer run from mid-2024 onwards.

Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Marcos Buscaglia, the Founder of Alberdi Partners.

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In this podcast Marcos discusses the political and economic outlook for various countries in Latin America, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.

Marcos founded Alberdi Partners in 2016 to provide economic, political and market research services on Latin American countries for institutional investors and corporations. The Alberdi Partners team share in the decision processes of their clients, with close interactions. They produce a combination of deep macro and political analysis with detailed number crunching, including the use of econometric models.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research.

Ryoji Musha founded Musha Research in 2009 following a long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.

In this podcast Ryoji Musha discusses the reasons for the dramatic improvement in the outlook for the Japanese economy. He identifies the importance of the improving competitiveness of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and crucial global geopolitical factors, particularly the troubled US-China relationship, as well as the emerging secular trends in the domestic economy. Ryoji Musha also explains the ongoing changes in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance that will lead to the effective elimination of the yield curve control (YCC) policy and other unconventional monetary policy measures by the end of next year. He also sets out the pathway for economic growth and a sustained return to the BOJ’s 2%pa inflation target. He assesses when and by how much Japanese interest rates are likely to rise in 2024 and what this will mean for the 10-year government bond yield. Ryoji Musha concludes with an assessment of bullish factors driving the strong performance of the Tokyo stock market and foresees a significant increase in the weightings of Japanese equities in global portfolios.

Musha Research was founded in 2009 to provide more direct assistance with financial market analysis and the determination of medium and long-term outlooks. The activities of Musha Research are guided by three principles: adhering to consistent logic; reaching conclusions based on their own beliefs; and using a viewpoint that incorporates both history and a global perspective.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.

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In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. Turning next to the main government bond markets, he discusses the macro impact of the longer-term generational trends in three key areas: demographics, the labour market and resources. He also points out that there is likely to be increasing volatility in the short term, but eventually both the US 10-year Treasury yield and the UK 10-year Gilt yield are expected to reach new highs for this cycle.

With respect to the leading stock markets, the US S&P 500 Index has been stronger-than-expected in the first half of this year. However, Ron indicates that the chart is now at a make-or-break level, with other market factors pointing ahead to an asymmetric downside mean reversion risk later this year or in early 2024. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 7,700 trading range that has been established for most of the last three years, but given its components, various headwinds suggest that it is in danger of diverging lower. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and he highlights the attractiveness of various Asian markets. In addition, he discusses the performance of various commodities this year and highlights the bullish outlook for gold.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by Ron's proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke environmental, social & governance-related research and investment advice.

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ESG investing has become an essential aspect of the services that many financial institutions provide for their clients. Given the growing popularity of ethical investments, environmental, social and governance considerations will inevitably become a more important part of portfolio investment decisions in the future. In this podcast Lenka Martinek discusses the evolving geopolitical factors that are influencing the prospects for ESG investments.

Lenka explains how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a re-evaluation of the global defence industry’s ESG credentials and highlights those factors that can be considered more acceptable, or totally unacceptable, from an ESG perspective. With respect to the solar industry, Lenka highlights the various issues related to China’s very poor ESG rating and identifies alternative ways to invest in the renewable energy sector. She also highlights some of the positive and negative factors for ESG investors in the water resources sector.

On a broader perspective, Lenka explains the different approaches to ESG investing in both relative and absolute terms. She notes the importance of the relative performance of the oil sector and the tech sector. In conclusion, Lenka highlights the advantages that come from having a comprehensive knowledge of ESG megatrends, and she indicates how SMS can evaluate these trends to better understand the markets and to make profitable investment decisions.

Founded in 2018, Sustainable Market Strategies is an independent investment strategy research service that tracks global developments in the ESG and Impact-Investing space. Also known by the firm’s initials, SMS publishes forward-looking, independent and actionable investment research. The SMS team has a total of over 50 years of experience in capital markets, finance, economics, policy, academic research and sustainable investing. They look at sustainable investing trends, taking a global, top-down and thematic approach, and tailor their views to global market conditions.

In conversation with the IRF's JP Smith, Mark Latham Founder and CEO of Commodity Intelligence explains how his news story driven AI process helps the team to identify prevailing narratives in the market and potential inflection points.

----more---- Over the past three years this approach has led to some very timely calls, including a relatively bearish stance on the energy complex in 2022 prior to the big falls in the prices of oil and natural gas.

Here, Mark lays out the results of his current analysis and summarises his views in the wake of the recent correction across a wide range of commodity markets, including a deep dive into the oil and gas markets and how alternative energy will lead to negative cost curves across a range of key manufacturing industries.

This latest episode of the IRF Podcast looks at the outlook for the Turkish economy and financial assets in the wake of Turkey's 2023 first-round election.

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IRF Senior Advisor, JP Smith hosts Michael Harris, Founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, who's been ranked number one strategist for Turkey thirteen times. 

Mike outlines the probable outcome for the forthcoming second round, likely future policy developments and identifies the key scenarios for the Turkish Lira and equity market, paying particular attention to the possibility of further destabilising capital flight and dollarisation of the domestic economy.

Mike and JP also discuss Erdogan's balancing act between Russia and the West with regard to foreign policy and the potential ways that might shift in response to any future economic and/or financial turbulence.