The IRF Podcast

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of CPM Group.

Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis.

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In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodities in 2023. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold and silver, as well as the differing outlook for the prices of platinum and palladium.

In the energy sector, Jeff focuses on the various factors influencing the prices of crude oil and natural gas. He then assesses the demand and supply factors that will impact on the prices of various base metals, including aluminium, copper, lead and nickel. In the agricultural markets, Jeff sets out his views on the prospects for the prices of several soft commodities, including corn, soybean, wheat, beef, pork and coffee. In addition, Jeff discusses the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he expects global asset allocators to invest a higher proportion of their funds in commodities in the years ahead.

Founded in 1986, CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis and advisory services.

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the third episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google.

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In this edition experienced market practitioner, JP Smith examines the analysis and views of the IRF's best-in-class Independent Research Providers on the outlook for inflation, China, emerging markets and the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

JP outlines the shift in the market environment compared with the post-GFC period from 2009 to 2020 and suggests strategies for investors to preserve the real value of their assets.

Independent Research Providers mentioned in this episode include: Aitken Advisors, Minack Advisors, Talking Heads Macro, Andrew Hunt Economics, Teneo, J Capital Research, CrossBorder Capital, The pH Report, Independent Strategy, Alef Advisory, Totem Macro and Emerging Advisors Group.

In this latest episode of the IRF Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google, JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Dr Peter Warburton, Founder of Economic Perspectives, to discuss the structural outlook for the UK economy in the wake of the recent budget.

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Economic Perspectives take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers, building on the analysis of the development of global debt markets laid out in Peter's book 'Debt and Delusion'.

In this podcast, Peter spells out how policy and forecasting errors by the UK government, Bank of England and the Office for Budgetary Responsibility are primarily responsible for high inflation, low growth and the rising budget deficit. He explains his scepticism that the BOE will be able to take the sort of measures necessary to bring inflation even close to the target level but also provocatively argues that inflation will help to bring about a necessary generational and social redistribution of resources and pave the way for a regeneration of the UK economy and society over the medium term.

Finally, Peter and JP discuss the international context and the implications of the Economic Perspectives hypothesis for asset allocation and the ability of investors to preserve the value of their wealth in real terms in this challenging environment.

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Anne Stevenson-Yang Co-Founder and CEO of J Capital Research to discuss the political and economic outlook in China.

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J Capital combines both top-down macro and bottom-up industry and company specific analysis in the research and consultancy service for institutional investors.

In this podcast, Anne discusses the prospects for Covid reopening in the context of Beijing's ongoing shift towards more authoritarian and autarkic policies. She outlines the case for continuing slow growth, pours cold water over the liklihood of a rebalancing towards consumer spending and explains why she doubts there will be a Minsky Moment for the Chinese economy.

Anne and JP debate the prospects for commodity markets in the light of the China slowdown and also whether investors should adopt a contrarian more positive approach towards Chinese equities, which have underperformed the majority of their peers in both emerging and developed markets over the past eighteen months.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Zekeriya Ozturk, the Founder of iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory.

What does the future hold for Turkish politics, the economy and the financial markets? In a world that has become more divided between East and West, Turkey’s position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it even greater importance in both economic and geopolitical terms. With a population of over 84 million people and a GDP per capita of over US$8,000, Turkey has enormous emerging market potential. Zekeriya has over 25 years of top-quality experience of the financial markets in Turkey and in other emerging economies.

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In this podcast, Zek explains the political trends in Turkey that will dominate the all-important presidential election, which is scheduled to take place in the middle of 2023. He discusses Turkey’s problem with high inflation and how it impacts on the prospects for economic growth. Zek also assesses the outlook for Turkey’s external trade and balance of payments. In addition, he highlights the key factors impacting on the prospects for interest rates, bond yields and the Turkish lira. Zek also considers some of the various attractive opportunities in the stock market.

Founded in 2013, iRes provides thematic research and investment ideas with the combination of in-depth political, macroeconomic, sector and stock analysis. The primary focus of iRes is the Turkish market, however the firm also provides broad strategies for the Emerging Markets, as well as investment assessments on client specific areas of interest on an exclusive basis.

We are delighted to bring you the next episode of IRF's new podcast series, Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, hosted by JP Smith.----more----

JP is an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity & Chief Strategist at Pictet and Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank. This podcast series aims to provide greater awareness around IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets. The focus is on medium and long-term thematic issues rather than day to day trading.

In episode two JP draws on the work of best-in-class IRF Research Providers to review three key issues in emerging markets, namely the impact of the strong US dollar on EM economies and financial markets, the medium-term prognosis for China's economy and finally, recent developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

This episode includes the following IRF Providers:

Emerging Advisors Group, Independent Strategy, CrossBorder Capital, Greenmantle, Suttle Economics, Andrew Hunt Economics, Totem Macro, Talking Heads Macro, The pH Report, China Beige Book, PRC Macro, Teneo, J Capital, Eurointelligence.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.

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In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out important signposts to the demographic, economic and social trends that will be increasingly important in the post-pandemic decades. In their book they predicted that inflation would take off and that interest rates would Increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalization. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. Their predictions are proving to be alarmingly accurate.

In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the various drivers of inflation and how they are changing, both in the short term and in the longer run. He assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj points out that some inflationary pressures will persist beyond the peak of the current revival. He discusses what this means for economic policy and for economic growth. Manoj concludes with an assessment of the implications for the financial markets in certain advanced economies and emerging markets.

Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the highly-regarded former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

The IRF is excited to announce a new podcast series titled ‘Research and Markets’ hosted by JP Smith, an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity at Pictet and Sell-Side Strategist at Deutsche. ----more----This podcast aims to provide greater awareness around the IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets.

The focus will be on medium and long term thematic issues rather than day to day trading.

In this first Research and Markets podcast JP draws on some of the IRF’s best-in-class Research Providers to ask whether financial markets are about to undergo another major transition. He notes the increasing tendency of markets to overshoot given the dominance of momentum investors.

JP examines three main themes, namely US inflation, the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the slowdown in the Chinese economy, to evaluate the possibilities of an end to the flight to the USD and the prospects for longer duration US bonds to perform well at the expense of global equity markets.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners, a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting. James discusses the outlook for the US mid-term congressional elections and how these may impact President Biden’s 4-year term in the run-up to the next US presidential election. He shares with us the prospects for another Biden versus Trump race for the White House in 2024 and considers some of the other younger candidates in the Democrat and Republican parties who may come to the fore. With cost of living and interest rates rising, continuing Covid struggles, strained US-China relations, and Russia’s war on Ukraine, James assesses what all this means for US financial markets in the remainder of this year and in 2023.

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Capital Alpha Partners, founded in 2007 and based in Washington DC, closely monitors and forecasts US political developments, and analyses their impact on the economy and the financial markets. Seven senior analysts - grounded by 175 years of collective professional - provide experienced, sector-based coverage of policy trends, legislative activity, budget data, regulatory processes, and the political climate. As well as coverage at a macro level, sector coverage includes Financials, Energy & Environment, Health care, Telecom & Media, Consumer, Defence and Industrials.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Leland Miller, the Founder and CEO of China Beige Book, an independent advisory firm that was established in 2010.

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Leland Miller is a noted authority on China’s economy and financial system. He is an elected member of the National Committee on US-China Relations, the Economic Club of New York and the Council on Foreign Relations. Leland is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council.

China Beige Book (CBB) operates its own extensive in-country private data network in China that provides independent economic data to their corporate and financial sector clients, including nearly two dozen of the world’s largest central banks. Every quarter CBB collects private data from surveys of 4,000 executives across 34 industries.

In this podcast, Leland discusses the severe challenges that are facing the Chinese economy today. Using CBB’s proprietary data and analysis, Leland assesses the current state of the mainland economy and explains the policy implications. He also discusses the prospects for Sino-US relations in the run up to the next US presidential election in 2024, with a particular focus on the crucial US-Taiwan relationship and the heightened risk of a clash with China.

In addition, Leland explains the poorly understood dynamics of the Chinese stock market, the impact of the ongoing regulatory crackdown on big companies and the investment implications for the year ahead.