The IRF Podcast

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals.

In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices very uncertain this year, not least because potential developments in the Ukraine, in the Middle East and with US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively high, but possibly with a slight downside bias, given the risk of a global economic recession commencing later this year or in 2026. Jeffrey then highlights his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.

In conclusion, Jeffrey discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have an overweight position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2025.

Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research.

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In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila then assesses the outlook for world public debt in the next 5 years, and explains what this could mean for government and corporate bond markets. Focusing next on Asia, she discusses some of the key aspects of the outlook for the economies and financial markets in Japan, India, China and Taiwan.

Sharmila Whelan is a very experienced global geopolitical-macro strategist, who has been advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations for nearly three decades. Sharmila has held prominent roles for leading firms in London and Hong Kong, including Merryll Lynch/Bank of America, CLSA, BP and Altheia Capital. She has also counselled various governmental bodies and is a frequent contributor to the financial media, including Bloomberg, the BBC and CNBC.

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy, which is based in London.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.

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In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could impact on the East Asian region. He compares the situation now to that in the mid-1980s at the time of the Plaza Accord currency agreement. Paul explains what is likely to be different in 2025, with particular reference to the outlook for interest rates and the currency exchange rates versus the US dollar. Paul concludes with an assessment of some of the longer-term demographic and technological trends that are influencing the region.

Paul Cavey has been analysing the North East Asian Economies, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. He was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners.

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In this podcast, James Lucier discusses the quality of the appointments that president-elect Donald Trump is making for his next administration that begins on 20th January 2025. James then assesses the outlook for fiscal, monetary, trade and regulatory policies in the next two years, ahead of the mid-term congressional elections in November 2026. He also discusses what these policies might mean for US economy and the dollar. James concludes with an assessment of the geopolitical outlook for US foreign policy in a dangerous world.

Capital Alpha Partners is a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting, which was founded in 2007 and is based in Washington D.C.

They track US political developments that impact on the economy, global equities, credits and broader portfolios. Their team of very experienced analysts offers situational awareness of Washington – its legislative activity, regulatory processes, judicial crosshairs and political climate – on a macro, sector and subsector basis. They cover a broad spectrum of all the key sectors from Consumers and Energy, to Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Telecoms, Media and Technology.

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe.

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Callum Thomas founded Topdown Charts in 2016, after a distinguished career in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia. Based in New Zealand, Topdown Charts provides data-driven primary research across a broad global macro and multi-asset universe. A key belief at Topdown Charts is that any factor, and usually multiple factors, should be used in the art of generating investment insights, particularly when extremes are detected e.g. extremes in valuation, emotion / sentiment, positioning, price movement, etc.

Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy.

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Hodges sets the scene through his analysis of how demographic trends will impact supply and demand through the major developed economies, along with the major secular changes facing key industries such as chemicals and energy.

Against a backdrop of widespread overcapacity and declining demand, Trump's proposals for tariffs even if only partially implemented, will accelerate the reversion to 'local for local' supply chains with unpredictable consequences for investors, who are already grappling with very high levels of valuations, most notably in the US equity market.

Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.