The JeffEffect

Everyone is talking about “The Big Reset.” Supposedly, the forces that be want the pandemic to break down all lot of the old ways of the world … thus opening up the opportunity to foist upon humanity a new vision. The only problem with all of that is that things just don’t break like you want them to.

What I’m hoping you’ll get out of this is two things:

First, whenever you hear someone talk about “The Great Reset” and how The Year of the Mask “changed everything,” I want you to remember that all this year did was reveal the strengths, weaknesses, and trends that were already at work.

The second is that, when it comes to “where” you do your business and what real estate markets you should invest your money, time, and energy into, The Great Migration is going to affect your decision-making … at least it should.

References & Links

LA Times — California population growth slowest since 1900 as residents leave, immigration decelerates:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/california-population-continues-to-decline-with-state-emigration-a-major-factor

Next10.or Report — California Net Domestic Migration and other Statistics

https://next10.org/sites/default/files/California-Migration-Final2.pdf

Weissman Center for International Business — New York Net Domestic Migration and other statistics:

https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/09/Paper-Series-Fall-2020-9-8-20.pdf

Where Your Dad Used to Sit

An open letter essay on the small pubs and public houses across England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, and Northern Ireland are more important than you know .... along with their brother bars and taverns in the US.

The government folks have no stake in the game, because they just don't understand. For them, the age of COVID — The Year of the Mask — is just another opportunity for political posturing. But you and I ... we have something to lose.

Give this episode a listen. Cheers.

Hat tips to:

Small Paul and the Driving Wheel.

Ray Charles singing a song by Stevie Wonder.

The poet Dylan Thomas.

The Cheers theme song by Gary Portnoy.

And the unknown folk pub singers captured anonymously on tape.

Have You Ever Split a Cab or an Uber with a friend? If the Jones Act applied to Uber drivers, this would be illegal

Reasons we economists suck — the dismal science

• What the heck is cabotage? 
• Market Distortions
• The Devil Lives at the Margins — “Concentrated Benefits” & “Diffuse Costs”

100 years ago

Introduced by Wesley Jones — the senior senator from Washington State

Hmmmm … and they build ships where? (hint: Washinton State!)

All Ships Used for Cabotage

• US Built
• US Owned
• US Flagged
• US Commanded
• US Staffed

Other Related Issues

• Insurance
• Seaman Rights
• Port Inspections
• Etc.

Often confused with the Passenger Service Act of 1886 — Discuss the difference

Even NPR confused the issue in their podcast.

Jeff Introduces Guest Colin Grabow (GRAY-Bō)

Colin Grabow of the CATO Institute — Policy Analyst, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. He has a BA in international affairs from James Madison University and an MA in international trade and investment policy from George Washington University. He specializes in things like subsidizing sugar production and The Jones Act.

Welcome to the JeffEffect.

What did the Jones Act Attempt to Do?

• Foster Shipbuilding in the US (Protectionism)
• To Maintain Domestic Fleet and Shipbuilding Capacity (National Security)
• Maintain an experienced Merchant Marine Workforce (Protectionism & National Security)

Did it Succeed …. No, It Did Not — Jeff and Colin Discuss

There are currently less than 100 Jones Act Qualifying ships.

Commerce between states is negatively impacted.

How The Jones Act Got on My Radar

Thinking about opportunity for the local Economy — Why Apple Can’t Build Phones in Puerto Rico

Why Are US-built Ships So Darned Expensive?

• The irony of Asia-Pacific Shipbuilding — Being destroyed in war required that it be rebuilt from scratch. Japanese industrial base was devastated during WWII. The Korean conflict occurred immediately after WWII. Both areas were reindustrialized after the conflicts. This appears to have facilitated the construction and recapitalization of shipbuilding in these two regions.
• Protectionism Breeds Complacency Every Time It’s Tried.
• There is not a single LNG Tanker, Heavy Project Ship, Heavy Cargo Ship, or Cruise Ship built in the US — Zero Qualify for The Jones Act.
• If ZERO qualify, what are we protecting?

Anecdotes

• Flying Cows of Hawaii
• Road Salt in New Jersey
• LNG Triangle Trade — Russia/Massachusetts/Pakistan
• Oil in Houston Can’t Get to Maryland
• Other Ideas and Anecdotes from Colin

Complacency Revisited

Transport companies that were not covered by the Jones Act have become competitive on the world stage.

US Airplane Manufacturers

• Boeing
• Gulfstream/General Dynamics
• Textron (Textron Aviation/Cessna)

US Locomotive Manufacturers

• GE Transportation/Wabtec
• Brookville Equipment Corp.
• Electro-Motive/Caterpillar

US Semi-Truck and Trailer...

Here is a rough outline of the topics in the podcast along with helpful links. 

B2B, B2C, & D2C Pricing and Subscription Modeling to Maximize Revenue Growth

The ProfitWell Model

• Financial Plugin for data analysis
• 20% of the market

Basic Philosophies

3 Levers of Revenue Growth

1. Customer Acquisition
2. Customer Retention
3. Monetization

Aspects

1. Positioning
2. Packaging
3. Pricing

Interesting Topics

Price Differentiation

Raising AND Lowering

Detailed Segmentation (3 to 5 personas?) … I say “student” and “veteran” pricing examples.

Here is a link to the Van Westendorp Pricing Model on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Westendorp%27s_Price_Sensitivity_Meter

Do You Believe in over-optimization for profit?

Over-optimization

Defensive optimization (Jeff cites American Airlines and Southwest Pennsylvania example)

Jeff hits his favorite punching bag of Gillette performing revenue optimization in the face of tech and cultural disruption

Lessons of COVID-19 Round-Up

A discussion of lesson learned since March relying on Patrick’s recent social content

Here is a link to ProfitWell: https://www.profitwell.com

Here is a link to Patrick Campbell’s Twitter feed which is where Jeff found him (good stuff): https://twitter.com/Patticus

Here is a link to the online eBook Patrick mentioned in the interview: https://www.priceintelligently.com/hubfs/Price-Intelligently-SaaS-Pricing-Strategy.pdf

BONUS CONTENT!

Jeff and Patrick talk about the economics of moving out of the “Big Cities”:

https://youtu.be/HpSuI5bMbzI

__________________ 

The best ideas in the world are the ones that EVERYONE agrees on. But what’s crazy is that even those universally accepted ideas are things that we still struggle with. Why can’t we let go of the stuff that’s holding us back? Why can’t we even see it sometimes?

It all started with a guy selling cheese. Welcome to The JeffEffect.

Here are the links and references I mention in the show:

Gary Vee on Golden Handcuffs, this is a short video so watch the whole thing. But I pull the salient point from 1:30 through 2:20.

https://youtu.be/uDJUB2ZnBGA

Joe Rogan with Suzanne Santo starting at 3:45 mark. But I pulled the quote from 4:08 through 5:17 (“the money thing can trick you”).

https://youtu.be/7cfaTm8Lk8I

The story of the Camel Passing Through the Eye of the Needle: Matthew 19: 16-30

“The young man saith unto him, All these things have I observed: what lack I yet?”

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+19&version=ASV

Buddhist Concept of Clinging — Buddha lived 2500 years ago.

Upādāna — clinging as the point of suffering

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upādāna

How to Catch a Monkey — can we let go? (sociology and primatology)

The video is poor quality and the narration is in French, but it proves an important point

https://youtu.be/IHdJVzYBBOU

The Invisible Gorilla — Selective Attention (psychology and anthropology). Watch this video and be amazed.

https://youtu.be/UtKt8YF7dgQ

I wrap up the cheese story.

Macy’s Stock Performance. Expand it so that you can see it for at least the last five years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/M?p=M&.tsrc=fin-srch

- The town of Tenino, Washington, made international headlines by printing its own currency — real money made of wood — during the Great Depression. When COVID-19 struck causing more economic harm to his town, Mayor Wayne Fournier and the City Council decided to take their economic future in hand and do it again.

International Media and the world are taking notice of small-town Tenino once again. They have printed money in an innovative way using antique technology that is, in some ways, more secure than high-tech digital currencies.

- Mayor Fournier talked with Jeff about their rebel with a cause currency printing, short and long-term economic effects, the potential legal issues, and the future of economic development in Tenino.

Welcome to the JeffEffect.

Is Bitcoin "money?" Is Cryptocurrency even legal? Is it safe? What about Facebook Libra? There are more questions than answers it seems. But if you are suffering from Bitcoin FOMO, are a die-hard Crypto-warrior, or just want to understand what all the fuss is about ....

.... Welcome to the JeffEffect.

Want more inside info?

Check out Episode 009 on Inflation & Deflation.

Also, Episode 004 is called "The Mystery of Money" and is one of my most popular episodes.

Joe Rogan just signed a multi-year content licensing deal with Spotify worth 9-figures. This is the biggest Podcast deal so far, BY FAR. Does this deal make sense? Why is it worth so much to Spotify? Is this another Howard Stern boondoggle? Jeff answers all these questions and shows how it already is a HUGE win for Spotify, and a big loser for Apple.

Welcome to the JeffEffect.

Jeff began his podcast journey just a few months ago. Turns out it's a lot of work ... and it CAN be a lot of fun and it CAN be profitable. So why do people and busiensses start podcasts?

Jeff interview Mark Asquith — CEO of podcast host Captivate.fm and the to guys talk about all of it.

Welcome to the JeffEffect.

We are all getting barraged on TV, in Social Media, in our Email ... EVERYWHERE ... by syrupy ads from brands telling us that "We are in this, together." What a load of crap.

In this episode, Jeff grabs the mic and vents about this annoying trend and describes how this kind of opportunistic marketing might be well-intentioned, but can actually hurt your brand. It'a ore of a rant, actually.

Welcome to the JeffEffect.