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I went fishing, and many of y’all had suggested I livestream while fishing. During the stream I discuss Sandra Birchmore.

The fastest way a “regional conflict” becomes a global problem is through chokepoints, and we spend this conversation mapping the ones that matter. Dave DeCamp joins me to explain why a US move toward direct intervention in Yemen could trigger the exact kind of escalation Washington says it wants to avoid, including threats to US commercial shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait. We also dig into the part most headlines skip: Yemen is not just a proxy story. It has its own timelines, its own internal power balance, and actors making decisions for local advantage, not simply on command.

From there we turn to the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in attacks on commercial shipping. If the US is trying to avoid an energy shock ahead of elections, what does Iran gain by pushing the pressure now, and what does Washington’s muted response tell us about escalation risk? We talk through the signals, the “tanker for a tanker” talk that didn’t fully materialize, and why market psychology and politics often steer military choices more than officials admit.

We also get into the ugly reality of negotiation under fire. When leaders are targeted and senior officials are killed, it does not just make talks “harder” in theory, it wrecks trust and reshapes what any side is willing to sign. Finally, we pivot to Ukraine, where mixed messages about intelligence sharing, energy ceasefires, Starlink issues, and headline-grabbing “deals” raise a familiar question: is this coherent policy, election-cycle positioning, or improvised crisis control?

If you found this useful, subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave a review. What part of this puzzle do you think is most likely to explode next?

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Scott interviews Larry Johnson about the status of Washington’s campaign to weaken the current Russian regime.

Discussed on the show:

Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and a former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. Follow his analysis at Sonar21  

Sign up for the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom at scotthortonacademy.com

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/43D82oY (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/4eMQblu

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/4a5fKvx

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com; and Crowdhealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/ (use promocode Horton)

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/ or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!

If you feel like the headlines about Ukraine, Russia, and “energy deals” never add up, you’re not imagining it. We sit down with Larry Johnson to separate political theater from the underlying mechanics that actually move wars and markets and to ask why so many public claims collapse the moment you put real numbers next to them.

We start with Trump’s escalating pressure on Zelensky and the idea that Ukraine should swap leaders to “make a deal.” From there, we interrogate the energy angle: global diesel consumption, how much diesel really moves by export, and why Russia’s share is smaller than most people assume. Larry lays out the bigger drivers behind the global diesel shortage, including Persian Gulf disruptions, strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns, and a shipping crunch as tankers get stuck, damaged, or removed from service. The practical takeaway is simple and uncomfortable: even dramatic announcements may not bring meaningful relief at the pump, and supply shocks can linger for years.

Next we turn to leverage and credibility. We talk through the contradiction of maintaining Russia sanctions while still exploring purchases that fund Moscow, and why “ceasefire” messaging can ring hollow when strikes continue. We also dig into the dangers of escalation, the way drone warfare gets reported, and how geography and air defenses change what “massive attacks” really mean on the ground.

Finally, we confront two stories that raise stark moral and strategic questions: a proposed live stream execution in the United States, and the widening conflict involving the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and potential US action in Yemen. If this conversation challenged your assumptions, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review. What part do you think the public most misunderstands right now?

A single debate clip can reveal an entire foreign policy reality: we demand ritual condemnation of October 7, then treat any mention of Gaza’s devastation as taboo. Kyle is joined by Nolan Denaro to unpack a heated Michigan campaign exchange and the bigger story behind it, including how U.S. politicians lean on inflated or debunked claims when they need moral cover for ongoing violence. We keep the focus on what listeners actually need: how to separate real empathy from narrative enforcement, and why accuracy matters most when leaders are steering public consent for war.

From there, the conversation takes a darker turn with the push to livestream a firing squad execution tied to the Fort Hood attacker. We talk about the death penalty versus death-as-spectacle, the propaganda value of public brutality, and the blowback risk when America broadcasts violence to the world. We also react to JD Vance’s comments and what it signals about internal unease, even among allies who still want to sound “tough.”

The second half widens the lens to hard consequences: an Associated Press report on U.S. troops killed by an Iranian drone strike after warnings about inadequate defenses, the politics of accountability in the Iran war, and how foreign policy hits your wallet through energy prices. We close with Trump’s announced diesel deal with Putin, rising gas costs heading into winter, and Zelensky’s anger as Ukraine support stalls. If you care about Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, U.S. military decisions, and the real-world costs of empire, this one connects the dots. Subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway.

A promise not to attack Iran before the US midterm elections sounds calming until you ask the uncomfortable question: who benefits from the world believing it? We sit down with Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski to sort through the noise, the incentives, and the real risk of escalation hiding behind confident social media posts and campaign season talking points.

We dig into the political crosswinds that make this moment so volatile: Republicans staring down tough midterms, voters feeling war through gas prices, and Israel heading into its own elections with Benjamin Netanyahu facing intense scrutiny. We also talk about what it looks like when a president treats Congress with contempt, leans on executive orders, and keeps widening conflict in the Middle East without meaningful democratic buy in.

Then we go to the heart of the fear: nuclear proliferation and nuclear first use. If Iran gets hit while negotiations are still on the table, why wouldn’t leaders conclude that the only reliable deterrent is a nuclear weapon? We unpack the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the talk of Iran exiting the NPT, and the grim “deterrence lesson” the world may be absorbing from recent history. We also address the rhetoric about missiles hitting US cities and the growing backlash over how service members and families are treated when wars drag on.

If you care about US foreign policy, Middle East security, and how nuclear incentives get created in real time, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave a review with your take: what would actually reduce the risk of a wider US Iran war?

Something big hides inside a simple question: if the US and Israel are thinking about striking Iran, why would the timing cluster around elections? We pull apart a Reuters-style headline and treat it like a map, tracing how US midterm politics and Israel’s vote can shape escalation decisions just as much as military “readiness” can. I walk through the incentives for President Donald Trump to keep the conflict looking quiet and contained, and why Benjamin Netanyahu may benefit from the opposite, especially when political survival and legal exposure are part of the background.

From there, we move from politics to pressure points that hit everyone: the Strait of Hormuz and global oil shipping. As attacks rise and transits drop, the story shifts from abstract strategy to real-world consequences like higher crude prices, higher insurance, and crews refusing the route when the danger gets too high. That breakdown also feeds Iran’s own strategy, not just seeking a military edge, but trying to cement a lesson in American politics that war with Iran carries a direct domestic cost.

The most dangerous thread is nuclear escalation. We talk through analysis arguing Iran’s internal debate is changing, including among people who once supported the JCPOA limits and opposed a bomb. I explain the two forks in the road around the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: withdrawing as a warning, or breaking out first and dealing with the aftermath later, plus how Russia and China might view that choice in today’s world.

If this helped you think clearer about Iran strikes, Hormuz, nuclear proliferation, and the Yemen war, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

“Let them take out Los Angeles” is the kind of line that explodes online, but the real story is what comes after the clip: how an unpopular Iran war gets sold to the public, and how critics keep missing the most effective, factual attacks. Andrew Day returns to help us separate viral framing from what the president is actually arguing, and why sloppy media narratives can backfire by making Trump look “vindicated” even when the underlying policy is a mess.

We dig into the nuclear issue at the center of the conflict, including reports that JD Vance may be hinting at a shift from “zero enrichment” to a “meaningful reduction” in Iranian nuclear enrichment. That isn’t a small wording tweak. It goes straight to whether diplomacy has any workable path, how the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal broke down, and why U.S. rhetoric often ignores the basic reality of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. We also talk through the deeper consequence that rarely gets headlines: the Iran war’s impact on global nuclear nonproliferation, and the lesson other states may take from watching who gets attacked and who gets deterred.

Then we zoom out to the economics of war and the mechanics of oil markets. If the Strait of Hormuz is still moving crude, why are Brent prices hovering around $100 and gas prices staying brutal? We explain the risk premium that insurers, shippers, and crews demand when missiles and drones threaten commercial routes. Finally, we connect the dots to Yemen, where renewed Saudi-Houthi fighting risks widening the regional war and disrupting shipping even further.

The fastest way to sell a war is to blame the same villain for everything, and right now that villain is Iran. We walk through Donald Trump’s comments on the alleged FlyDubai attack and the broader pattern of turning unclear events into “proof” of an Iranian terror campaign. We talk attribution, the Sunni extremist profile behind most post-2001 international terrorism, and how vague official language from Washington, London, and Tel Aviv can harden into a public mandate for escalation.

From there we zoom out to the real-world posture behind the headlines: talk of multiple aircraft carriers and fresh Marine deployments in the Middle East sounds like a march toward conflict, but rotations, distances, and simple fleet limits tell a more complicated story. We unpack what’s real, what’s spin, and why the Iran war narrative keeps getting “dirtied up” to justify the next step.

Then the focus turns to Europe and the Ukraine war, where Russia appears to be moving from a restrained “special military operation” posture toward heavier strikes on logistics, power, transport, and communications. That shift collides with rising NATO Russia tensions and a dangerous flashpoint in Kaliningrad, where Western officials sometimes talk in “limited” terms while Moscow openly frames direct attacks as nuclear-threshold events. We also get into the uncomfortable reality of modern warfare: hypersonic missiles, drones, and anti-ship systems are making legacy symbols of power like aircraft carriers look far more vulnerable, from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and Yemen.

If you care about geopolitics, US foreign policy, the Ukraine conflict, NATO escalation, Iran war propaganda, and what all of this means for global security, hit play. Subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave a review with the one question you still can’t shake.

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Scott interviews Ian Proud about how he recently traveled to Russia to hear a speech from Putin, only to be detained by his own government upon his return. Scott and Proud talk about what happened and why he decided to go to Russia. They then discuss the broader state of the war.

Discussed on the show:

Ian Proud was a British diplomat for 24 years from 1999 to 2023, working on Russia for the final decade. Subscribe to The Peacemonger, his Substack and YouTube Channel. 

Sign up for the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom at scotthortonacademy.com

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/43D82oY (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/4eMQblu

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/4a5fKvx

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com; and Crowdhealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/ (use promocode Horton)

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/ or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!