Goodbye Normal - it was nice knowing you!

Nick Cohen and author & academic Yascha Mounk explore the enduring presence of populism and the challenges faced by centrists in adapting to changing political realities, discussing how assumptions about the world have evolved over the past 25 years. They examine various economic and political challenges across different countries, including Britain, Poland, and the United States, while analyzing how populists like Modi and Trump have capitalised on claims of representing the people against elites. The conversation concluded with discussions about the challenges facing American progressives and centre-left parties, emphasising the need for strategic adjustments and effective messaging to counteract populist threats and regain political credibility.

Challenges of Centrism in Populism Era

Yascha explains the enduring presence of populism and the challenges faced by centrists in the current political landscape. Yascha highlighted how assumptions about the world, particularly those held by liberal democrats, have been swept away over the past 25 years, similar to the period after World War II. He emphasises that centrists are often out of tune with the present because they cling to outdated worldviews rather than adapting to new realities. Andrew agreed, noting that Peter Mandelson's comment about Trump being the most consequential president in living memory reflects the shift from a neoliberal to a populist order.

Defending democracy and academic freedom

Yascha also emphasises the importance of defending democratic institutions and academic freedom against threats like Donald Trump, arguing that while some may have been willing to compromise on issues like diversity statements in the past, it is now crucial to stand firm. He criticises the tendency of some liberal professors and journalists to impose their values on society, which can backfire and drive people towards Trump-like figures.

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Yascha is Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the Persuasion Substack - @JoinPersuasion - and also has his own Yascha Mounk Substack column. A man of many talents, Yascha hosts his own podcast, The Good Fight. Yascha's latest and highly acclaimed book - The Identity Trap: A Story of Ideas and Power in Our Time - is published by Penguin. A political scientist, Yascha is also Professor of Practice at the School of Advanced International Studies of John Hopkins University in the U.S.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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In this discussion, Nick Cohen and former diplomat Arthur Snell explore the complex relationship between Donald Trump and Russia, examining evidence suggesting Trump may be serving Russian interests either knowingly or unwittingly. They analyze Christopher Steele's controversial intelligence work on Trump-Russia connections, noting that despite criticism, many of his key allegations have proven accurate according to subsequent investigations, including the Senate Intelligence Committee report. The conversation concludes by addressing concerns about Trump's deferential behaviour toward Putin, his appointment of pro-Russian officials to intelligence positions, and the implications for US-UK intelligence sharing should Trump return to power.

In this discussion, Nick Cohen and former diplomat Arthur Snell explore the complex relationship between Donald Trump and Russia, examining evidence suggesting Trump may be serving Russian interests either knowingly or unwittingly. They analyse Christopher Steele's controversial intelligence work on Trump-Russia connections, noting that despite criticism, many of his key allegations have proven accurate according to subsequent investigations, including the Senate Intelligence Committee report. The conversation concludes by addressing concerns about Trump's deferential behaviour toward Putin, his appointment of pro-Russian officials to intelligence positions, and the implications for US-UK intelligence sharing should Trump return to power.

Trump's Russian Connection Examination

Nick Cohen introduces a discussion on whether Donald Trump is a Russian asset, with guest Arthur Snell, a former Foreign Office diplomat. Arthur explains there's a spectrum of possibilities, from Trump being a recruited KGB/FSB asset to him being an unwitting "agent of influence" serving Russian interests. They note Trump's unusual connections to the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, including his 1987 Moscow visit and marriage to Ivana from Czechoslovakia, emphasising how rare it was for American businessmen to engage with communist countries at that time.

.Arthur Snell's substack column is Not all doom & his regular inciteful podcast is Behind the Lines. Arthur's first not fiction book is How Britain Broke the World: War, Greed and Blunders from Kosovo to Afghanistan, 1997-2022 .

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Read Nick's latest column, Can Europe resist Trump's gangsterism? Does it have the willpower to try?

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Nick Cohen talks to author and journalist James Bloodworth about the evolving nature of politics and media in today's digital age. James explores how traditional media institutions are losing influence while online platforms and personalities mainly of the radical and far right have become more prominent, particularly noting how successful figures leverage algorithms and controversial content to gain attention.

The strange death of the mainstream media

James Bloodworth discusses the changing media landscape, noting that traditional media outlets like newspapers and TV networks are losing relevance, especially among younger audiences. He observes that podcasts and social media have become more influential, with figures like Joe Rogan and Andrew Tate gaining significant followings. Bloodworth explains that successful online personalities often understand algorithms and use outrageous statements to gain attention, both from supporters and critics.

Victimhood is pay-dirt for online Radicalised Right

James Bloodworth says radical right figures are earning online fortunes with simple messaging, saying "You slowly learn that the nuanced articles don't get as many clicks and subscriptions, and people sending you money as the more inflammatory articles." He described figures such as Matthew Goodwin as "very obviously leaning into the white supremo types who give him money on his Substack." He adds, "I don't know how much of this stuff he actually believes, but he's willing to surf that wave because it because it seems to be making him quite a lot of money."

Online far right wingers are guilty of bad faith & hypocrisy

James says right wing charlatans are always banging on about free speech when it came to people jailed for inciting violence against immigrants like the wife of a Tory councillor, Lucy Connolly, while demanding the banning of pro-Palestinian protests. James adds, "I know there are people at those protests who have said anti-semitic things, and that there have been anti-semitic chants. But... there's a complete double standard. I think it's all bad faith, and I think the accusations, particularly against Keir Starmer of two-tiered justice, are completely absurd, considering he was involved in the prosecution of people following the 2011 riots."

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James Bloodworth, @J_Bloodworth, the author of The Lost Boys, A personal journey through the Manosphere published on June 5th by Atlantic Books. James's Sustack is For the Desk Drawer.

Nick Cohen's regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.

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Nick Cohen talks to former Conservative MP and minister Dr Phillip Lee about the Brexit Omertà that is killing the Conservative Party. Dr Lee, now a practising GP, blames the party's spectacular demise partly on its failure to call out Nigel Garage and the Reform Party for the failure of Brexit and the dire consequences.

The elephant in the room

Phillip Lee that although few people want to talk about Brexit, they are prepared to talk about the many problems either caused or exacerbated by Brexit. He says, "Look at the boats thing... when we were members of the European Union and Dublin protocols, we could turn these people around to where they'd first entered the European Union. Okay. That was what we were able to do. Now that we're outside the European Union, we can't turn these boats around once they're on the beach."

He adds, "Now, how many people in this country actually realise that Brexit has made, dealing with the boats coming across the channel harder? I suspect very, very few people understand that factual point. So why isn't the Labour government saying that? Because they don't want to open up the discussion of. European Union membership being positive."

Government by focus group is wrong

Phillip Lee asserts that UK political parties mistakenly and all to frequently delegate their political judgment to poorly informed focus groups, saying "we rely upon focus groups from people who are often ill-informed...

It is just a fact. They don't understand the complexity of trading in negotiations. They don't understand the complexity of just-in-time manufacturing, they don't understand the challenges of geopolitics or whatever. The reason in great part is not because they can't, it's because they've gotta get the kids to school. They've gotta put food on the table. They've got busy, busy lives. They're being stretched, left, right, and centre to care for elderly and everything else..." 

He warns, That just takes us down the path, which we are now too far down almost, of having a country that's not fit for purpose and not sustainable, not tenable. In fact, in the medium term, we have to be, we've gotta turn that around. We've gotta start to get to a situation where our democracy people are more informed."

Public is being manipulated all over again on Brexit

Phillip Lee argues that Nigel Farage counters the obvious failure of Brexit with the absurd claim that it just hadn't been "done right". He adds," Farage is cleverly tapping into the fact that nothing's changed. In fact, everything's got worse. But instead of people concluding it's got worse because of Brexit, he twists it as...t's not the Brexit that people voted for.

"Well, the Brexit that people voted for was never going to happen again. People were lied to and manipulated, and I think until a political party that's got a chance of forming a government in this country is honest with people about this straightforward, informs them of the reality." 

Failure to be honest with the public could lead to Reform in power Phillip Lee says failure to treat the public as adults could lead to the disaster of Farage in Number 10, saying "It's just going in the path of Reform, isn't it? ... we're going to have our Trump moment and most of us are gonna have heads in our hands about it."

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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The UK voting system is falling into disrepair and disrepute

Nick Cohen talks to the distinguished pollster and political commentator Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1 about the parlous state of British democracy and the UK's creaking and increasingly unfit-for-purpose First Past the Post voting system. Peter explains how First Past the Post (FPTP) has become problematic with increased party fragmentation and changing voter demographics. He explains how economic shifts, declining manufacturing industries, and changing education patterns have influenced class structures and voting patterns, with particular attention to how university education has impacted political loyalties. Peter and Nick examine the current state of political fragmentation and the challenges facing traditional parties like Labour and Conservatives, concluding with a discussion about potential electoral reform options and the evolving nature of British politics.

British Democracy and Electoral Challenges

Nick and Peter discussed the state of British democracy and the electoral system. They explored how the first-past-the-post system has become increasingly problematic with the rise of multiple political parties, leading to situations where governments can be formed with a small percentage of the overall vote.

Class Structure and Political Loyalties

Peter explaines that the decline of traditional manufacturing industries and the corresponding decrease in union membership have led to a shift in the class structure of Britain. He also noted that the strong family-based political loyalties of the past have diminished, contributing to the reduced influence of class in modern politics. Education is an important factor in political allegiance with university graduates more likely to be more liberal with a small "l", and more open, and much less likely to vote Conservative or Reform than non-graduates.

Voter Motivations and Party Loyalty

Peter presents findings from a study on voter motivations, revealing that the primary reason voters support their party is that it is "better than the others," particularly for Labour and Conservative supporters. He noted that Labour and Conservative voters are more likely to give "consumer" reasons for their support, while Green and Reform voters are more likely to cite "devotee" reasons such as shared values or specific policies.

Peter's Substack is Peter Kellner's must-read and free to access Substack column on the state of UK politics.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Summary

The discussion between Nick Cohen and US-based journalist and commentator Ben Cohen centres on the implications of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal for Donald Trump, including his alleged involvement with Epstein and how Trump exploited conspiracy theories like QAnon to gain political power. The conversation explored Trump's ability to control the narrative and create distractions, while examining the impact of conspiracy theories on American politics and Trump's base of supporters. Ben Cohen shared insights about Trump's declining influence among his supporters and discussed the potential political implications of unsealed files related to Trump, including the challenges of dealing with misinformation and disinformation in American politics.

QAnon and the MAGA conspiracy mania

Ben and Nick discuss the impact of conspiracy theories, particularly QAnon, on American politics and Trump's base. Ben estimates that about 30% of Trump's supporters leaned towards QAnon beliefs, which included the idea of a corrupt "deep state." They agreed that while conspiracy theories were not the sole reason for Trump's 2024 victory, they played a significant role in his support and were part of the justification for the assault on Congress.

Misinformation in American Politics

Ben and Nick discuss the challenges of dealing with misinformation and disinformation, particularly in the context of American politics and media. Ben explained his experience writing about Candace Owens, a far-right provocateur, and the unique American phenomenon of figures like her gaining attention through sensationalism and lies. They explored the impact of such figures on public discourse and the normalisation of misinformation.

Trump's Narrative Control and Media Impact

Nick and Ben discuss the implications of the Epstein files, which reportedly contain damaging information about Donald Trump. They agree that Trump's ability to control the narrative and create distractions, such as the Obama-Russia conspiracy theory, has allowed him to avoid serious consequences for his actions. But the Epstein scandal is blowing up in Trump's face and may well yet doom his scandal-hit presidency.

Read Ben's The Banter Substacks here and listen to his podcasts here.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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All the evidence points to Genocide in Gaza

Nick Cohen talks to author and former Foreign Office diplomat Arthur Snell about the ongoing Middle East crisis, focusing on the devastating impact of the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023 and its consequences for the region. They explored the situation in Gaza, including concerns about potential genocide and the humanitarian crisis, as well as the implications of proposed resettlement plans and refugee outflows. The conversation also touched on the role of international actors, particularly Europe and the United States, in addressing the situation, and the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump's foreign policy regarding Israel and the Middle East.

What's happening in Gaza is genocide

Arthur argues that Israel's actions against the Palestinian population in Gaza constitute genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention. He examines the Israeli government's intent and capability and concludes that it is to make Gaza uninhabitable for Palestinians, noting the shift in Israeli public opinion after the October attacks. Arthur emphasises the challenges Israel faces in defeating Hamas without destroying the Gaza population.

International Influence on Gaza Tragedy

Arthur and Nick discuss the ongoing tragedy in Gaza, focusing on the role of international actors, particularly Europe and the United States, in addressing the situation. Arthur emphasises that while Europe has limited influence over Israel, there are mechanisms to pressure governments committing international crimes, such as sanctions and surveillance missions by the RAF. He also highlighted the involvement of companies like BCG in planning for ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Andrew questioned Europe's power to influence the situation, noting that only the United States, under Trump, has significant leverage over Netanyahu.

.Arthur Snell's substack column is Not all doom & his regular inciteful podcast is Behind the Lines. Arthur's first not fiction book is How Britain Broke the World: War, Greed and Blunders from Kosovo to Afghanistan, 1997-2022 .

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Read Nick's latest column, Can Europe resist Trump's gangsterism? Does it have the willpower to try?

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Nick Cohen & Professor Robert Wintemute discuss transgender rights and women's rights, exploring legal, medical, and societal implications of transgender issues. The conversation covered topics such as the evolving demands of the LGBTQ+ movement, challenges faced by transgender individuals in various settings, and the controversy surrounding medical treatments for gender dysphoria in minors.

Transgender Rights vs. Women's Rights Debate

Nick talks to Robert, Professor of human rights law at King's College London, about transgender rights and women's rights. They discuss the controversy surrounding transgender issues in liberal media and academia, with Andrew noting that many people are afraid to speak out on the topic. Robert, author of Transgender Rights V. Women's Rights, provides a legal perspective on the debate, highlighting decisions against trans campaigners and the Supreme Court's ruling that trans women are not women for legal purposes.

Transgender Rights and Societal Tensions

Robert and Nick discuss the evolving demands of the LGBTQ+ movement, particularly focusing on the differences between LGBTQ+ and transgender rights. Robert highlights how transgender demands have shifted from seeking equal rights to requesting exemptions and changes to legal and medical systems, which he views as problematic.

Transgender Rights and Social Implications

Robert and Nick also talk about the implications of removing sex from birth certificates and the challenges faced by transgender individuals, particularly in areas such as prisons, sports, and equal pay. Robert emphasised that while the number of transgender individuals may be small, the effects on women in specific situations can be distressing, and he highlights a case where a transgender athlete's participation raised fairness concerns.

Gender Dysphoria Treatment Bans

Robert and Nick also tackle the controversial issue of medical treatment for gender dysphoria in minors, particularly focusing on the recent bans in Brazil and Argentina. They expressed concern about the lack of evidence supporting the effectiveness and safety of treatments like puberty blockers for young people, noting that many individuals eventually change their minds about their gender identity.

Transgender Rights and Political Realities

Robert argues that transgender rights activists need to align with political reality to avoid electing reactionary leaders like Donald Trump. He proposes a "tough love" approach for coexistence, which includes two concessions: transgender individuals should stop expecting others to validate their gender identity, and society should ensure no discrimination against individuals based on their appearance.

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Professor Wintermute is a lawyer, a trustee of @AllianceLGB and an author and co-author of books on same sex partnerships and sexual orientation and human rights. His latest book Transgender Rights vs Women's rights, From conflicts to co-existence, is now published

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Nick Cohen and commentator Nick Tyrone discuss the rise of the radicalised right in the UK and ask why the Conservatives won't fight against the extremists in their midst and party. Instead, some Tories are have buckled to the siren voices of intolerance and extremism. They are dragging their party further to the extremes by trying to outflank Nigel Farage & Reform on the right.

Right wing extremism becomes ever more extreme

Nick Tyrone says, "We've come so far that Farage is starting to look relatively moderate compared to some of the stuff that's even happening within the conservative party now. That's how scary things have become."

Nick adds, "I have my doubts that however much money you threw at it, that a sort of a party that was sort of Rupert Lowe shaped like, was sort of that right wing could actually succeed to a huge degree in Britain. ... you could do it in a boiling frog sort of a way. I think you could get a, a government elected that on a much more moderate platform that, so that kept turning up the dial and got more and more right wing and, and if that government was producing, you know, economic growth and was eliminating some of the bigger problems they got the NHS working, they would probably be given leeway to do some fairly terrible right wing stuff."

Conservatives wont defend conservatism - inevitability of Jenrick leadership

Nick says, "Robert Jenrick is going to be the conservative leader unless Jenrick jumps to reform, which I don't think he will, but I can't rule that out. Yeah, it's gonna be Jenrick. And again, it's that sort of thing. Well, what do the moderates do? And the answer seems to be not very much. And just sort of go along and hope somewhere along the line everything works out. I think Jenrick could take them further to the right than reform. and what happens when that happens? I don't know. I mean, I can say, well, I don't think that'll work."

Possible malevolent force could take over the UK

Nick Tyrone says, "I can't really emphasise enough every time I come on how completely all over the place the Tories are and what a mess they are. So in the end it's totally possible that some real malevolent force could take hold in British politics."

Nick Tyrone is an author, activist, policy advisor and commentator and keen observer of the Tory party whose Substack column as Neoliberal Centrist Dad - nick.tyrone.substack.com - is a must read for those of us desperate for the return of sanity to our national political discourse.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Nick Cohen and historian James Hawes discuss wide range of political topics, focusing primarily on British politics, Brexit, and the rise of right-wing populism. Discussions included the historical context and current state of the Conservative Party, the challenges faced by Labour and the SNP, and the potential long-term implications of demographic changes on political landscapes. James Hawes argues that only liberal populists can counter the threat posed by Nigel Farage and Reform.

Brexit's Long-Term Consequences and Failures

James and Nick discusses the long-term implications and failures of Brexit, highlighting how Farage and other Brexit advocates had been promoting the idea for decades. Both criticise the lack of accountability and the continued influence of Brexit supporters despite the project's evident failures. James expressed optimism for a pro-remain populist leader to challenge Brexit advocates directly, rather than relying on complex economic arguments. He also shared a conversation with a top UK insider predicting the UK's collapse by 2029 due to Keir Starmer's inability to address the mess left by the Tories & Brexit

The Tory Party pickle

James & Nick discuss the historical and current dire state of the Conservative Party, highlighting its long history of populism and sectarianism. They argue that the party's true nature is being revealed through its alignment with Farage and its anti-migrant stance, which James compares to 19th-century Tory behaviour.

Farage's Rise and threat to the UK

The discussion focuses on British politics, particularly Farage's rise and the potential for a shift towards far-right governance. James argues that Farage success in England will re-energise the SNP & inevitably speed up the UK's break-up. Both express concern about the working-class appeal of Farage's populism and discuss the perception of left-wing politicians as communists by some conservatives.

Demographic Shifts and Political Implications

The discussion focused on demographic challenges and political implications, with Nick and James exploring how an aging population and ironically more financially secure voters are more likely to vote for Farage and his brand of nut-job populist extremism, while younger generations face difficulties accessing housing and other opportunities. James argues that a more liberal -leftist brand of populism - with policies such as I.D. cards and German-like tests for trades people - might help counter the poison and certain chaos of Farageism.

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James Hawes @jameshawes2 is a historian and author of a novel and books such as including The Shortest History of Germany and The Shortest History on England

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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