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 @NickCohen4 and Guardian political columnist @rafaelbehr discuss the potential for an extinction-level general election result for the Tories on July 4th.

Time and events seem to have caught up with the Conservative Party at last as they face retribution at the hands of an exasperated electorate after 14 years of chaos and 5 prime ministers, plus policy disaster after policy disaster including Brexit, Austerity, the bungling of Covid, the Tufton Street insanity of "Trussonomics", turds in rivers and seas and the endless Rwanda/immigration fiasco. And then there is the serial buffoonery and malfeasance of Boris Johnson.

Rafael and Nick discuss how the Conservatives find themselves beached on political territory between the rabid right they tried and failed to appease and the centre ground  where people have become increasingly repelled by Tory incompetence and hard right, populist antics.  E.g. Tories may boast of "getting brexit done" but scarcely of brexit itself.

Rafael is one of the Guardian's leading columnists and observers of the political scene. Rafael's book - "Politics - A Survivor's Guide" is published by Atlantic.

Don't forget to read Nick's regular Substack column Writing from London.

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Nick talks to celebrated author, columnist and editor Will Hutton about his new book, This Time No Mistakes:  How to Remake Britain (Bloomsbury), described as "a brilliant book" by no less a figure than Sir Keir Starmer.

If  Labour wins - as currently expected - how does it pull the UK out of the doom cycle it's been put into by the Tories? Will explains how much work has to be done by Starmer and his team to put the country back on its feet after the Tory-inflicted disasters of austerity, Brexit, Boris Johnson and last, but not least, Liz Truss and her notorious mortgage-doubling "mini budget".

How do you re-boot an economy growing when Brexit alone is forecast to eventually knock a ruinous 10 per cent off GDP and when wages have stagnated during 14 years of Tory misrule? 

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown on Sir Keir Starmer with the Labour Leader's biographer Tom Baldwin.

Nick asks:  WTF is Keir Starmer really?

Tom  - @TomBaldwin66 - spent hours with Starmer, his friends and family to investigate the supposed enigma that is the Labour Leader for his book which is just out - Keir Starmer: The Biography, published by William Collins.

Tom,  a journalist and former Labour spin doctor,  discovered a far more interesting and enigmatic character than the "boring" stiff caricature the Tories and their Fleet Street henchmen are desperate to paint. 

Starmer is probably the most working class Labour leader since Harold Wilson and yet the only one to take up the Labour mantel with a knighthood, gifted to him for his stint as Director of Public Prosecutions. Tom finds a man forged by family history and values, decent and kind but utterly ruthless when needs be, and determined to sweep the failed, toxic Tories from office.

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown from leading economist Danny Blanchflower CBE - onetime external member of the Bank of England's interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee.

Danny foresaw economic woes mounting up in 2007 and predicted a crash - a year or so before the start of the bank collapses that led to the Great Recession. 

Since then, the Tories have visited on the country one failed economic project after another - austerity, Brexit, Trussanomics. Now the average Brit is forced to pay what's been called the "Moron Premium"  for their chronic incompetence - higher food prices, extortionate energy bills and more expensive mortgages, while a failing economy stagnates in recession.

The Tories have predictably descended into  in-fighting and sinister culture wars as they await their inevitable rout at the next election. But what can Labour do to pull the UK economy out of its current death spiral?

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown  from Professor Tim Bale of the Queen Mary University of London, who is widely looked on as the UK's keenest academic observer of the Conservative Party.

The Tories have been left reeling and predictably even more mutinous by their  catastrophic defeats in last week's two by-elections in their hitherto safe seats of Kingswood in south Gloucestershire and Wellingborough in north Northamptonshire.

Not only did they lose Kingswood with a 16.4 % swing, where Labour only needed a relatively modest 11-point swing. They also lost Wellingborough, where the swing was 28.5% - the second highest swing from Conservative to Labour in any post-war by-election.

Tim - @ProfTimBale - discusses the shatteringly few options now left open to an incompetent populist governing party that is becoming more and more loathed by voters.  Seemingly, all they have left to clutch are the meagre straws of their deranged Rwanda policy and the tattered flag of a failed Brexit project. So, will delaying Rishi Sunak's inevitable day of judgement only make a terrible situation even worse?

Tim's latest book The Conservative Party after Brexit  (published by Polity) charts the Party's dizzying descent into populist and radical hard right Brexit populism. 

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown from John McTernan, one-time political secretary to Tony Blair and seasoned political strategist and commentator.

How does Labour not only win but replace the Tories finally as the natural party of government? 

14 years of Tory misrule have brought the failed projects of Brexit and  austerity  and the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss shitshows. Now Rishi Sunak and his divided rabble fester low down in the polls, waging their culture wars, while the country falls apart around them.

John argues that people are crying out for real change and Labour has an opportunity to win big and stay in power. Will Keir Starmer grasp the opportunity and give people the change they want and that the UK desperately needs?

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown  from US journalist and author Matt Johnson on the threat posed - yet again - by Donald Trump and his deranged far right MAGA cult that has captured the Republican Party.

Matt - @mattjj89 - the author of  How Hitchens can save the Left, explains how there is little evidence so far of a  tangible centre-left coalition to confront Trump - who is a dead cert to be  the Republicans' nomination to run for the presidency in 2024, despite facing 91 felony charges.. 

Incredibly, despite trying to overturn the result of the 2020 general election and provoking the January 6th insurrection, Trump is running against the incumbent Joe Biden who is 80 now and will be 86 were he to survive a second stint in the White House.

Trump himself is 78 but exudes a certain demonic energy in comparison with Biden whose age and unpopular running mate, Vice-President Harris Kamala Harris, could prove to be telling factors counting against a successful re-run.

Nick asks  Matt what can be done to save the US and the world from the undoubted calamity of a second Trump  presidency?

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets the Lowdown on the UK's greatest taboo - the ever-deepening Brexit crisis - from Chris Grey, emeritus Professor @RoyalHolloway, and author of the highly-regarded and must-read blog,  Brexit and beyond.

Extra Brexit food checks come in from next week - threatening food price rises and shortages. Meanwhile, the Tories fail to get one of its promised "Canada-style free trade agreements" with Canada!

Every week, @chrisgreybrexit - also author of the book  Brexit Unfolded  - exposes the many absurdities, lies and disasters of the Brexit Britain clown show and explains how the Brexiteers' preposterous promises were never remotely deliverable and were always likely to cause huge damage to the UK's economy and standing in the world. For example,  we should now be seeing the Silicon Valley of the East End's Hoxton - as promised by @DanielJHannan. Er...where is it?

Both Chris and Nick lament the chronic failure of the BBC and other MSM to hold to account the charlatans like Hannan , Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage who mis-sold Brexit. 

But how can Labour handle the Brexit mess they are set to inherit when so many people who voted for it refuse to accept the mayhem they were conned into inflicting on all of us?

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown from Chris Dillow, the economist, and author of the Stumbling and Mumbling blog.

Chris -  @CJFDillow - is a keen commentator on  British managerialism - the curse of incompetence and privileged entitlement that led to the Post Office scandal and blights much of modern Britain today.

Chris explains how modern Britain seems to reject competent management - opting instead for psychopaths and incompetents - often a combination of the two - who practise "managerialism" rather than efficient management that prioritises the good over bad.

All too often, today's hirers prize over-confidence - preferably relayed with private school tones - over quietly stated and competent management.  

The result is a UK - beset by management scandals - where nothing seems to work. 

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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Nick Cohen gets The Lowdown from Daniella Peled, Managing Editor of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, on the terrible conflict in Gaza .

At a time when South Africa is bringing its genocide case against israel before the International Court of Justice, Daniella discusses with Nick the allegations of Israel's war crimes as well as the crimes committed by Hamas on October 7th. 

Daniella talks about the extreme political voices in Israel today and the impact these are having on the current conflict in Gaza and on the region. Truth is often said to be the first casualty of war. So, what roles are misinformation and lies playing in the current conflict?

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Listen to The Lowdown from Nick Cohen for in-depth analysis of the issues and events that shape our lives and futures. From Ukraine to Brexit, from Trump to the Tories - we hope to keep you informed - and sane! @NickCohen4

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