The Morning Market Briefing

Ben and Tom discuss the return of AI volatility with Korea's stock market crashing 10% and triggering a 20-minute trading halt on forced ETF liquidations, SK Hynix and Samsung both down more than 20%, Oracle disclosing 21,000 job cuts over the past year as workforce shrank from 162K to 141K, the Ramp AI Index showing accelerating spend per employee but a flattening adoption curve, Google breaking the key $350 support level, and weak European PMIs alongside a steep Sunbelt earnings acceleration in the April quarter.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation paving the way for socialist Andy Burnham as the favorite to succeed him in the country's 5th PM change in 4 years, the post-deal whiplash with Iran briefly re-closing the Strait after Israel-Lebanon skirmishes before reporting "major progress" in overnight talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, the muted market reaction with the 10-year up a couple bps and crude flat in the mid-to-high $70s, and Tom's takeaways from the conference and Kevin Warsh's Fed debut.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting ending forward guidance and launching task forces on communication and data quality, the massive curve flattener with the 2-year jumping 17bps and the 30-year dropping 6bps, restored inflation credibility through lower TIPS breakevens, the media pushback led by Nick Timiraos, Trump's pivot into midterm "it's the economy" mode after signing the Iran deal, today's Philly Fed print, and the Bank of England holding at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as gilts sold off.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair with key questions on how hawkish he'll be, how he describes working with Powell, and whether he'll discuss Fed reform, today's retail sales print and yesterday's strong 20-year auction, UK inflation surprising to the downside at 2.8%, and the UAE's longer-term plan to cut dependency on the Strait of Hormuz to zero through Gulf of Oman port expansion, new pipelines to the Red Sea, and expanded rail and road networks.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the Iran-US agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with the blockade lifted immediately, $25 billion in phased sanction relief, a permanent end to hostilities including Lebanon, and an expected Friday signing in Geneva, the market reaction with oil dropping 5.6% to $80, the Nasdaq up 2.2%, and gold rising 3%, and the start of Warsh Week with the new Fed Chair pushing to scrap forward guidance and remake Fed communication.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Tom and Thomas discuss SpaceX's IPO trading kicking off around midday with crypto markets implying a $2.3 trillion valuation 30-50% above the IPO price, the heavy skepticism that SPCX can hold that level, the Trump administration's power emergency declaration in the southeastern US allowing plants to exceed pollution limits during dangerous heat, and the framework of the Iran deal including a 30-day Strait of Hormuz reopening, $300 billion in reconstruction funding, the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, and a permanent end to hostilities.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss Oracle's 8% drop on a $40 billion capital raise plan and CapEx ballooning to $90-95 billion against just 6% EPS growth, the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 to 2.25% into a sagging expansion, today's PPI print and 30-year auction, Rick Rieder's case for Fed cuts and fixed-income opportunities, OpenAI weighing drastic token price cuts to fend off Anthropic, and why Google's equity-funded AI buildout raises real questions about ROIC.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Google, SpaceX, and Perplexity's 2028 IPO plans, Claude Fable 5's release stabilizing tech, TSMC's 30% May sales rebound, and Oracle earnings tonight.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss China's $295 billion AI infrastructure plan that hands 80% of the buildout to Huawei and squeezes out Nvidia and AMD, Taiwan's tightening AI chip export controls, Korea's 8% rebound after yesterday's circuit breaker, OpenAI's S-1 filing as it races Anthropic to be the first AI lab to go public, the finalized $36 billion Apollo-Blackstone-Google-Anthropic-Broadcom TPU financing deal, and Apple's underwhelming WWDC keynote with a slow Siri AI rollout limited outside the US.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure