The Morning Market Briefing

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the widening Iran war with the US expanding airstrikes to a military site near Tabriz, Iran activating air defenses in Tehran and firing on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, the complete breakdown of diplomacy and early talk of ground forces, the landmark 30-year deal approving uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia for civilian nuclear power with US companies playing a central role, and oil prices ripping 4% with Brent into the mid $90s and WTI into the high $80s.


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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss what today's earnings say about a broadening economy with 3M raising full-year EPS guidance to $8.80-$8.95 on sharp acceleration in Safety/Industrial and Transportation/Electronics, Steel Dynamics posting +12% total steel volume and +19% steel fabrication shipments backed by reshoring and infrastructure demand, weakness continuing in consumer categories like packaging and home improvement, and financials showing resilient consumer spending, improving credit quality, and early signs of renewed price competitiveness in consumer credit and insurance


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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the escalating Iran war with an Iranian strike killing two US service members and injuring others in Jordan, oil rising to the high $80s and gas moving back above $4 over the weekend, Strait of Hormuz traffic grinding to a standstill, potential renewed diplomatic outreach from Iran's Foreign Ministry, the 10-year holding at 4.56%, Domino's earnings shedding light on a stabilizing consumer with US-owned comps improving to +2.1%, and a preview of the packed earnings week including DHI, GEV, GOOG, TSLA, IBM, and Thursday's ECB decision.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss a rough day for US tech with Google delaying Gemini 3.5 Pro after it underperformed on coding benchmarks, China's Moonshot releasing Kimi K3 with claims of rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic's top models, Netflix dropping 10% on decelerating US growth and softening engagement, SpaceX scrubbing its Starship launch after four engines failed to fire, today's options expiration, and a look ahead to next week's earnings calendar featuring Google, Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, and the ECB decision.

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Ben and Tom discuss the sharp value-over-momentum rotation with high-flying names getting smashed while broader market breadth improves, SpaceX Starship's critical launch attempt tonight at 5:45 PM local time in South Texas after May's booster spin-out — a launch essential to defending SPCX's $4 billion NASA moon-landing contracts and the broader SpaceX investment thesis — and the levered ETF blowups with South Korea halting new single-stock leveraged ETFs and the Lucid 2x levered ETF liquidating after its NAV went negative.


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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Reuters report that Stripe and Advent are making a joint $53 billion bid for PayPal at $60.50 per share sending PYPL up 16%, Lucid's near-50% after-hours crash on an EV publication's report of a potential go-private or Chapter 11 restructuring — which the company forcefully denied as "completely false" — Richemont's Americas rising 27% with broad-based jewelry strength and a stunning +36% Japan comeback, and OpenAI's plans for a physical ChatGPT device with personality, proactive learning, and mechanical elements coming in 2027.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritized CapEx toward memory and cybersecurity, HCA's 6% drop on ACA payer mix, Samsung exploring a US ADR listing after SK Hynix's blockbuster $26.5B raise, SLB and Liberty Energy pushing into data center power, improving NFIB and Fastenal readings, and a very strong bank earnings kickoff with BAC investment banking fees up 50%.


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Ben and Tom discuss President Trump looking "very strongly" at Australia's mandatory 12% employer-contribution retirement model as a potential answer to the US entitlement problem, and Apple filing a "thermonuclear" lawsuit alleging that OpenAI systematically poached talent and stole trade secrets in one of Tim Cook's last major moves as CEO — echoing Steve Jobs' 2010 declaration of war against Google over Android.

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Thomas and Tom discuss former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke joining Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust to advise on white-collar job displacement and AI bubble risks, Israel sharing intelligence with the US about a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump as ceasefire clashes threaten a mid-August permanent peace deal, OpenAI's number-two executive Fidji Simo stepping back to a part-time advisory role due to a neuroimmune condition, and the growing tension over OpenAI and Google supplying advanced AI to overseas subsidiaries of Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese companies while Anthropic bans Chinese access entirely over distillation concerns.


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Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the sharp Iran escalation with reports of a cruise missile impact on a nuclear power plant and missiles sent to Jordan following US strikes on 90 Iranian military targets, Russia's diesel export ban through July 31 sending US diesel up over 13% and London wholesale futures up 14% after Ukrainian drone strikes triggered Russia's worst fuel crisis since the Soviet collapse, the FOMC minutes noting broader tariff and AI-driven inflation, SK Hynix's US listing 7x oversubscribed at $24.5 billion, and China permitting local AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips for training.

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