The Morning Market Briefing

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump declaring the Iran MOU effectively over after calling Iranian leaders "evil sick people" and "cancer," the US retaliation "20 to 1" on Iranian cargo strikes, oil rising back to the mid-$70s and the 10-year climbing to 4.57% ahead of today's auction, Trump's additional broadsides at Spain, Greenland, and NATO, the semiconductor sell-off as investors focus on AI's capital intensity and rate sensitivity, and today's 2 PM release of Warsh's first FOMC minutes.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Services print showing broader strength with much of the employment gain tied to World Cup-related hiring, Samsung's 10% drop and the KOSPI hitting a circuit breaker despite 150% growth as memory chip volatility returns, Chris Waller's nuanced defense of forward guidance as "more art than science," Rivian's $1.5 billion stock sale of 75 million shares, and Toyota's $3.6 billion move of Tacoma production from Baja California to San Antonio as it runs at over 90% capacity utilization in North America.


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Andrew and Tom discuss memory chips ripping again with ASML and LRCX up 5% on the SK Hynix listing, Broadcom's new multi-year custom ASIC deal with Apple through 2031, Solstice's $14.5 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions with Goldman advising, and Mario Draghi's proposal to restructure the EU into smaller blocs to unlock growth.


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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh's remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair.


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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's ADP jobs print with a 120K estimate, yesterday's JOLTS surprise beat at 7.594 million that seems suspiciously convenient against a low bar, Kevin Warsh's panel appearance alongside Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Tiff Macklem in his first global central bank sit-down, and Constellation Brands' earnings beat with EPS at $3.79, 39% operating margins, and 21% Pacifico growth despite a slight net sales decline.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Supreme Court ruling that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job for now with Chief Justice Roberts defending central bank independence while leaving the door open to a for-cause removal, the divergent Wall Street outlooks with Citi and BofA both calling a market top and projecting roughly 10% downside on stretched positioning and deteriorating momentum, and Kevin Warsh's emerging Fed reform agenda across five task forces covering communication, the balance sheet, data, productivity, and inflation.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Comcast's 20% surge on the announced spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable business, Korea's plan to orchestrate $880 billion in AI capacity spending by 2029 with Samsung and SK Group leading $570 billion of chip investment, Apple lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from blacklisted CXMT as the memory squeeze pushes hyperscalers to find new sources, Williams' proposed $5.5 billion deal for Momentum Midstream, and the renewed back-and-forth in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and the US move to talks in Doha.


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Ben and Tom discuss OpenAI delaying its $1 trillion IPO to 2027 as bankers cite tech volatility and the post-SpaceX retail enthusiasm hangover, the resulting sell-off in AI infrastructure names with Softbank down 12% and Micron, NVDA, AVGO, and SNDK all lower, Apple and Microsoft's 15-20% price hikes on iPads, Macs, and Xbox tied to memory chip prices and the likelihood that big tech vertically integrates in response, ON Semi's $6 billion all-stock acquisition of Synaptics to expand into physical AI and robotics with a $100 billion TAM by 2030, and FedEx Freight's commentary that demand may finally be stabilizing.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Micron's blowout quarter with revenue up 346% to $41.5 billion, 84.9% gross margin, and DRAM/NAND supply now constrained through 2027, the implications of doubling CapEx to $40-50 billion in FY27, Trump's $88 billion supplemental spending request for the Iran war, farmer aid, and Ebola, the canceled signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, escalating Senate Republican tensions over Iran, the DOJ's egg price-fixing settlement with Cal-Maine, the narrowing K-shaped economy spending gap, today's PCE inflation print, and rates finally moving as oil drops below $70.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss oil's drop toward the $60s with WTI at $71.93 and Brent at $75.70 while the 10-year stubbornly holds at 4.48%, Trump directing the DOJ to investigate gasoline prices, Bessent's confidence that inflation is heading back to target, the supply/demand for dollars thesis amid massive cash raises from Google, SpaceX, ByteDance, and SK Hynix's planned $29 billion US listing on July 10, and the rightward shift across South America with Keiko Fujimori becoming Peru's first woman president, Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella winning Colombia, and Brazil's election still to come.

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