The Other Hand

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Lots of economic data on both sides of the Atlantic are now pointing to slowing growth.

Very slow in the case of Europe, a bit slower in the US. Even the US labour market is no longer defying gravity.

Is Ireland just an extension of the US economy? It certainly is extremely correlated with US economic performance.

It looks like the Corporation tax boom is over. For once, economists can say 'we told you so'

ECB tries its hand at forecasting, again. Probably with the same degree of accuracy as before.

Are we at peak interest rates, including mortgage rates? Don't count on the ECB discovering self-awareness.

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Nathan Johns @nathanrjohns of the Irish Times discusses all of the action in this weekend's quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup.

One unfancied team making the semis is ok, two reveals poor RWC seeding & planning. But Nathan convincingly argues that calibrating these things is difficult.

Nathan persuades Chris that the 'technical' aspects of the game are as important as the flashier, more 'entertaining' stuff.

But isn't rugby all about tries?

What about the big one, the final?

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The end of liberal conceits?

Chris thinks there is evidence for the existence of more anti-Semitism in the world, latent or otherwise, than most are prepared to admit. In the UK, few people can quite bring themselves to believe the evidence of their own eyes and admit to the anti-Semitism present in the Labour party - at least until Starmer began to clean the stables.

Everyone, everywhere, says they are not anti-Semitic but despise Israeli policies.For many that is true, genuine and honest. For too many, it's just a mantra to put a thin veil over their anti-Semitism.

Chris argues that something pretty fundamental shifted in the past few days. Jim disagrees.

Hard thinking and endless reading (and listening) provides few answers and reveals only questions. One (possible) conclusion is that those with certainty are not to be trusted. Three thousand yers of history count for a lot, for all sides in this conflict. Great harm has been done to and by all sides.

The intellectual contortions, verbal machinations, sheer flabby-mindedness of the world's left-liberal commentariat has been a wonder to behold. They try hard to blame, of course, Hamas, but 'provide context' via a critique of US foreign policy for the past hundred years. And, of course, blame Israel. It's the old politicians trick, in grotesque form, of saying something true and then immediately following up with a complete non sequitur.

F. Scott Fitzgerald said, "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Well, we certainly have plenty of first rate intellectuals around the West who believe that Hamas is entirely to blame for the terrorist attacks.. But so is the US and Israel.

History provides plenty of facts. Choose one - or a few - in isolation and it is easy to take sides.

Policy wonks have been claiming all week that they Hamas did what they did because they wanted to derail Israel-Saudi rapprochemont. If that is true, Hamas have succeeded. But how does anyone know what Hamas wants, other than their oft-stated aim of the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew? The terrorism of Hamas might just have been nihilistic in nature, with little or no strategic thinking behind it. Perhaps Hamas 'succeeded' beyond their wildest dreams and haven't a clue what to do next other than to keep fighting, probably to death of all of them except their corpulent generals, safe behind lines, comfortably ensconced in luxury hotels in Qatar. Probably the hotels built for the football World Cup.

Nothing, nothing at all, justifies what Hamas did. What Hamas did won't justify doing the same in return.

The world is heading for catastrophe if Gaza is 'levelled'. The shrivelling West is trying to hold the Israelis back. The term in international law is 'proportionality'. We won't see that unless there is another fundamental shift.

Now that World's policeman, the US, has left the stage - descended into isolationism and chaos in the case of Washington DC - conflicts will be a much more regular feature of the next 70 years. The period since WW2 was, historically, a remarkably peaceful time. 'Pax Americana' is no more. The 'Global South' is getting off the fence and landing in Beijing.

Slightly more mundane thoughts:

The Chair of the Federal Reserve made a daft speech this week. Sentiments that we are more used to seeing coming out of the ECB.

Geopolitics are disrupting the bond markets and threaten a stock market crash. The Fed's response? 'We might have to raise interest rates'.

Watch what they do rather than what they say but this is, at worst, mad, at best, irresponsible.

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Octabuild were kind enough to host Jim & Chris for a Webinar discussing all things Budget 2024, with a special focus on the construction industry.

The national housing crisis puts the construction industry at the heart of what happens next. So, all things considered, this was an extremely timely event with a focus that couldn't be more topical.

This podcast is a recording of the Octabuild Webinar.

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