The Other Hand

In an Irish Times Article that has gone globally viral, journalist Nathan Johns, @nathanrjohns, analysed data that suggests S. Africa might have won that match. Perhaps even deserved to win that match.

But they lost.

Why?

Numbers are not quite everything it seems. Nearly everything, but not everything.

Chris looks forward to a Wales victory in the semi final. Maybe even against Ireland.

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A big week in financial markets: bond yields are up to multi-year highs. All other asset prices have been affected. Equities are down, exchange rates are all over the place.

The new narrative is interest rates 'higher for longer'. Wethink this could be yet another narrative fallacy.

Interest rates were left unchanged in the US and UK following the ECB's latest dopey hike.

Economies are weakening under the strain of past rate hikes. Particularly the dopey ones.

Is Euroscepticism, pre-Brexit style, going to make a comeback?

Support for Ukraine - is it fracturing?

Saying goodbye to the Welsh economy.

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Latest data and forecasts for the Irish economy suggest 'growing but slowing'

Unemployment is forecast to stay very low - essentially an economy at full employment

Unemployment in many countries is forecast to stay low, despite low or no growth. That's because labour markets have been puzzlingly tight for years. Are we just extrapolating the recent past and forgetting that unemployment could rise?

Bond markets expect rate cuts next year. They won't get thise without a rise in unemployment, which few, if any, forecasters expect.

Somebody is getting this wrong.

If I was Finance Minister for a day!

Surely realpolitik dictates less prudence now in exchange for more prudence post-election? The Central Bank & IFAC both call for prudence NOW, arguably handing the election to Sinn Fein - who will be anything but prudent with the public finances.

A big UK inflation surprise

Not such a big surprise: Sunak reveals himself to be a grubby climate change denier.

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Lots of great rugby over the last two weekends.

Uruguay scare France by playing running rugby. Really entertaining stuff. One poor clearance kick undid the Uruguayans.

The kicking game.

Tonga show Ireland up at the breakdown. Another problem for Paul O'Connell

England, so boring - but so what?

A tight point spread for Ireland S. Africa?

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US inflation rose again last month: is the good news over? The Saudi-Russian alliance seems determined to get oil prices up to $100. That could mean €2+ for a litre or petrol and/or diesel.

Interest rates look to be in 'higher for longer mode'. There is nothing good that flows from $100 oil - other than an economic slowdown/recession that will cut fossil fuel consumption & help, a little, the environment.

Putin is building a new friendship circle, including fellow megalomaniacs from N. Korea and mad mullahs from Tehran.

The advice to the next government everywhere, including UK, US and Ireland, is the same: build more houses. In the UK and Ireland that's gonna need big reforms of the planning system.

Comedians - and serious journalists - are starting to tell jokes about Sunak's chances of winning the next general election.

Are Ross O'Carroll-Kelly's D4 brothers-in-arms helping to shutter a 112 year-old cricket club?

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Latest Irish government tax and spending figures have prompted lots of questions. Not least: is the corporation tax bonza over?

Economists and budgetary watchdogs are only doing their job when they warn about spending one-off, or windfall, tax receipts. But the upcoming budget will be as big a political event as it will be about economics. Arguably the most intensely political budget in a very long time. The politics all point towards giving money away. Maybe there are clever ways of doing that.

Jim thinks Chris might have a bit of an agenda when it comes to the UK. Chris claims to just have data. Either way, major bits of the country's infrastructure are at risk of falling down. Quite sad really.

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The Other Hand's occasional coverage of the Rugby World Cup starts here!

An ongoing conversation with Irish Times journalist Nathan Johns. Enjoy some proper rugby analysis, a little rugby banter, free of cliche and jargon, from a journalist who really does know his stuff.

In today's episode we set the scene by asking whether the RWC can be as unifying a force for France as was the 1998 soccer world cup.

The opening match couldn't have been better scripted: between the first and second favourites.

Why are the two sides of the draw so lopsided? Could Ireland fail to get out of 'the group of death'

The groups were decided years ago, to ease the travel plans of the world's prawn sandwich brigade rugby officials and their friends and families

Will France, 'the most Unfrench team' prevail?

How will Ireland do? They cant be bullied any more but lack a little depth in the event of key injuries

England don't even know what their team is (really)

The Welsh had better watch out for Fiji

New Zealand really do have weaknesses, particularly up front

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Our latest podcast is up, a conversation between Chris and Shane O’Mara, Professor of Brain Science at Trinity.

Shane, a prolific best-selling author, has a brilliant new book out -  Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds 

And a terrific Substack: BrainPizza, well worth a sign-up.

In today's pod:

Who is coming for Ted Cruz's beer and why is he so angry about it?

Why do we get so bent of shape by so little?

Why did Jimmy Page & Robert Plant's post Led Zeppelin careers diverge so much?

Reaching the top of the mountain and finding nothing there.

Hyperbolic discounting: if we don't do some long-term thinking there won't be a long term.

Techocrats Vs visionaries

We all want to be heard but why should anyone listen

Being poor really sucks - and is really bad for your brain

Wind farms are beautiful.

A note of optimism

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