The PetroNerds Podcast

Recorded on Nov 8, 2023 and Oct 12, 2023

Episode 97 of the PetroNerds podcast is your must listen to economic and energy podcast and round the world geopolitical tour. This is Trisha Curtis' talk and presentation to the Denver Association of Petroleum Landmen on October 12th, 2023.

Trisha walks listeners through the war in Gaza and the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, Europe, Russia, and China. She talks about China's role in the energy transition and how China competes. She talks about oil prices in the context of this volatility and what is happening in the US and global economy. She concludes by talking about US shale, production, the merger and acquisition environment, and how bullish she is on the potential of the rock.

https://youtu.be/GMt6YgDcA2U

Recorded on October 5, 2023

Episode 96 of the PetroNerds podcast is another heavy hitting podcast from PetroNerds with NYU Stern adjunct professor Paul Tice. He has 40 years of Wall Street experience and he talks with Trisha Curtis about the policies and complexities of "ESG" (environmental, social, and governance).

This is an incredible discussion and Paul and Trisha Curtis do not hold back. Trisha asks Paul a myriad of questions related to ESG, the energy transition, public companies, and access to capital. At the time of recording on October 5th, 2023, WTI was $82.36, falling from nearly $94/barrel on September 27th, 2023.

Trisha asks Paul to walk listeners through ESG compliance by companies, those required and not required, and what it is actually achieving. He talks about the UN promulgated club and ESG requirements which is driving significant moves in the publicly invested space for strict ESG compliance.

The UNPRI has strict membership compliance and is organized by the UN and is moving the needle on strict ESG compliance including requirements to implement UN sustainability goals and the Paris Climate Accords. Trisha asks about BlackRock, StateStreet, and Vanguard and the board room debacles in May of 2021 with Exxon, Chevron, and Shell. She also asks and touches on the UN backing of China's so-called "Green Belt and Road" and human rights violations.

Paul gets into the fiduciary responsibility problems by applying ESG to funds and portfolios after they have been built and then trying to push these companies to change their behavior. Trisha asks Paul to offer some clarity on the pull back in green investing and the ESG push in the past year that many have heard about....is it real?

They get into the subsidies behind wind, solar, and EVs, the auto strikes, and the massive transfer of wealth taking place in the sphere of very poor forms of energy being forced into economies by the government. Paul talks about the problem of ESG investments losing money in the short term and the real problems behind their promise that these ESG compliant companies and investments will make money in the future.

Paul talks about how the energy transition and ESG is not driven by economics and reality but by politics. Trisha talks about why it is so important for oil and gas companies to really understand what is taking place in the ESG and investment space and the world and geopolitics so they can push back and properly invest in oil and gas. Trisha asks about the legalities and fiduciary responsibility and ESG and the lack of capital access that ESG push is creating.

Paul talks about how important the credit markets are to focus on for ESG and the access to capital. He predicts governments in Europe and entities like the UN will declare a global climate emergency which will then be used to limit capital access to traditional fuel companies including oil and natural gas. Trisha asks how we educate and push back on all of this and stay positive despite the massive forces mounting against all of energy as well as the oil and gas industry.

He explains that the industry, and all energy CEOs more broadly, need to speak out more and have more courage to defend the industry and their company and move away from the acceptance of the energy transition. Paul explains that the goal of the ESG movement and the energy transition is to shut down the oil, gas and coal industry in the US and the world.

Trisha pushes everyone in the oil and gas industry, from CEOs to pumpers, to be vocal about what they do for a living and care about it and talk about it. Paul Tice says "defend yourself" and start talking frankly about climate.

https://youtu.be/JTcW2RbfqWY

Recorded September 1st, 2023

Episode 95 of the PetroNerds podcast is a PetroNerds special with guest Chris Atherton, CEO of EnergyNet. At the time of recording oil prices were $85.96 and a month later oil prices are below that figure after seeing $93 and change and incredible volatility in the span of a week.

Trisha Curtis asks Chris Atherton to walk listeners through the pre-Covid and post Covid periods of the industry and share what he has seen and how he views the market. He gets into private equity funds sizes and the evolution of the space and the acquisition environment. They follow by talking about the public side and the role of the generalist investor and the ability to lure the generalist investor back into the space through dividends and share buybacks.

Trisha talks about the state of the industry, the role of the generalist investor, and pushes back on share buybacks. She questions the inventory story and asks Chris to get into the impact of consolidation in the E&P space and the impact to the service sector. Trisha comments on how tight spending is within the oil and gas industry and how the industry seems to have left the intelligence space.

Trisha and Chris talk about the multiples and valuations of companies and the level of activity after the acquisition phase and discuss tiered acreage. Trisha comments about gas analysts, getting gas wrong, acreage and wells, and the difference from being in the field vs. looking at a map. Trisha gets into investor pressure, ESG, and what the public companies are "allowed" to do.

Trisha and Chris talk about the generalist investor and investor pressure and why these companies are traded well or not traded well. Trisha makes the point that the industry needs to push back on these ESG pressures. She says that oil and gas companies need to talk to the street more clearly about their business and the need to access capital and they are not explaining to the public market why people and entities should be investing in oil and gas companies.

There is a role for these companies to talk about their business and the market for oil and gas in the long term. She asks Chris to get into the constraints on access to capital and alternative funding. The ability to get money, get insurance, and get basic funding for oil and gas is a problem. Chris gives Aubrey McClendon stories and capital cost comparisons for the oil industry.

Chris talks about the reasons funding is drying up on the private side: the view that oil and gas is like tobacco and that the world will be driving EVs and not need oil and gas. He explains that this is an expensive business and needs a lot of capital. Trisha follows up by explaining how important it is for people to understand this business so the market can allocate money to properly invest.

Chris talks about that recession that never appears, rising oil demand, oil prices and the shortfall in production. Trisha and Chris talk about the rig count decline, natural gas prices and activity, and the economy. Trisha throws cold water on the idea that we are not in a recession and talks about the covid stimulus lag artificially elevating and elongating oil price height.

Trisha and Chris talk finish the podcast with bullish thinking in the oil and gas industry and the health of the economy, regional banks, and access to capital. Trisha asks Chris how the oil industry, from his perspective, feels about recession?

https://youtu.be/WI1eyMmu5IM

Recorded on September 18, 2023

Episode 94 for the PetroNerds podcast is an emergency recording on the sharp rise in oil prices and the extended Saudi "lollipop" cut of 1 mbd, helping to tighten supplies available on the market. Trisha Curtis takes listeners through the global oil market and global economy in this must listen to episode. WTI was $92.42, Brent $94.73, HH $2.73, and 30 year mortgages are between 7.5-8 percent on the day of recording.

Traders and hedge funds who were sitting on the sidelines are plowing into the market and helping to move up oil prices. Saudi production is down below 9 mbd, Russian production is still hovering around 11 mbd, but their refined product exports are down, Iranian production is up above 3 mbd, and US production is close to hitting pre-COVID all time highs of 13 mbd. US production currently stands at 12.84 mbd. Trisha walks listeners through global supply, global demand, refining capacity, lost refining capacity in the US, US LNG and the EU, and the serious problems with ESG and the energy transition.

She talks about oil supply and oil demand and oil prices in the context of the economy and the health of the US and global consumer and the pain these high oil prices are having and will have. She gets into pent up demand in China and the US post COVID and the apparent resiliency of the consumer. Trisha talks about Chris Wright's appearance and comments on Last Call and the need to push back on ESG so capital can flow to operators who want to drill and produce oil and increase output.

She has a massive rant on ESG, EU, and LNG and talks about the UAW (United Auto Workers union) strikes and the demands for a massive pay increase of 40 percent plus a 4 day work week being absolutely insane and bad for the US economy, US jobs, and US business. She discusses Joe Biden's pro Union and pro inflationary positions and his poor economic policies and she explains the fiscal lags and wage price spirals that these strikes can induce.

She also talks about the Saudi Oil Minister's comments at the World Petroleum Congress and the IEA's found (again) belief that oil, natural gas, and coal demand will soon peak. Trisha closes the PetroNerds podcast with China's new map and their 10 dash line and Chinese oil demand and economic sentiment.

https://youtu.be/I7cFHs4rjOQ

Recorded on August 25, 2023

Episode 93 of the PetroNerds podcast is another special treat for listeners. Trisha Curtis is joined by first time guest Daniel Romito of Pickering Energy Partners. Dan and Trisha cover a range of topics focused around ESG and access to capital. Trisha pushes back on the notion that the ESG agenda is the way to move the needle. They start the podcast off by discussing politics, the state of the market and economy, fiscal spending, and Dan's covid move from Chicago to Florida.

Trisha asks Dan about education and investors in the context of ESG and how to push back on it. They get into the cost of capital and the access to capital and a range of topics in between. Dan is a fantastic fast talking guest. This is an absolute must listen to PetroNerds podcast!

https://youtu.be/0hFMMF5Al9s

Recorded on August 28, 2023

Episode 92 of the PetroNerds podcast is your roundtrip ticket across the globe, covering the US Fed Chair's speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 25th, 2023, US China tensions and talks, and China's continued economic backsliding. Trisha Curtis recaps the economic slowdown and economic fears in China, the BRICS meeting in South Africa, China's well touted BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), Saudi China ties, and what all this means for oil.

She gets into China and US tensions, concerns about China's economic contagion, the US Secretary of Commerce's visit to China, hopes for big stimulus in China, Saudi oil cuts and OPEC Plus (aka Saudi) management of oil prices, rice inflation, global food inflation, and problems with food and fuel inflation now versus a year ago.

Trisha talks about all the bad economic "D" words in China including deflation, debt, decline, deterioration, and the importance of cheap labor in China in a weakening economy. She recaps Jermoe Powell's speech in Jackson Hole covering the two percent inflation target emphasis, restrictive stance, and policy lags of Fed interest rate hikes, and understanding the debate between all of it. Trisha discusses why high government spending matters so much now in a higher interest rate environment, massive US government spending and economic distortions creating serious lags and problems for inflation, PetroNerds take on Bidenomics, sticky low unemployment, crime and theft on businesses, labor unions and strikes, and US housing.

She addresses the looming government shutdown in the US and push up in treasury yields and talks about the International Energy Agency's (IEA0 split personality when it comes to their monthly oil market report, record oil demand, and all their talk and projection and advocacy on so-called clean tech.

https://youtu.be/aIdSygmmsgo

Recorded on August 16, 2023

Episode 91 of the PetroNerds podcast is a must-listen podcast covering everything from oil prices to the property crisis in China and the health of the US consumer. Trisha Curtis walks listeners through what is happening in the global economy and why it matters for oil prices and takes a deep dive into China. She covers Chinese crude demand, China's real estate sector, and China's rising unemployment problem. She gets into commodity price weakness, US consumer spending, US housing, US mortgage rates, US inflation, and the US problems with working from home. She talks about Chinese crude demand and stockpiling, Chinese Iranian and Russian imports, and soft crude oil prices despite the geopolitical risk premium on oil and lower inventories in the US. She covers contagion and economic risks and problems in China including China's massive youth unemployment rate, poor Chinese economic data, and increasingly restricted data out of China.

Trisha discusses China's property sector and real estate slowdown and housing data and systemic implications, urban vs. rural unemployment and unemployment data in China, shadow bank connections and Ponzi schemes and their connection to property development in China. She connects the collapse in the Chinese economy and property sector to energy prices and demand and talks about espionage laws and the connections to China's energy sector and China's energy consumption. She talks about the one year anniversary Inflation Reduction Act and a German solar company that has moved to Colorado because of it. Trisha makes the point that the US is paying a lot of money to subsidize and throw good money after bad energy (low BTU energy). She hits on US energy use and energy security, Colorado coal-fired power generation, and California extending the life of natural gas-fired power generation.

She gets into energy security and the damage of high energy prices to the US economy. She also discusses the negative impacts on the US and the global economy from higher labor prices, higher energy prices, and higher goods prices. She talks about access to labor and fiscal lags in the US, unemployment benefits and entitlement programs in the US, and inflation. She talks about how businesses are pushing back on work from home because of productivity issues and how work from home is impacting commercial real estate and local economies and regional banks and local businesses, She explains Chinese deflation and debt problems and what Chinese deflation really means. Trisha closes this podcast by talking about Target store earnings and theft, US household debt and rise in credit card spending, the health of the middle-income consumer, and Fed minutes.

Youtube: https://youtu.be/aWpifIHrfCs

The 90th episode of the PetroNerds podcast is Trisha Curtis' sit down interview with Karl Rove, former Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff to George W. Bush. Karl Rove and Trisha Curtis spend time covering a wide range of topics on energy and politics. They discuss the current Biden Administration's anti domestic oil and gas stance, lack of knowledge in the White House, green energy ideology, and "John Podesta and the green energy mafia."

Trisha brings up the meaty topics of energy security and China and asks why folks in Washington have not done a better job about putting two and two together. Why has the political opposition in Washington not driven talk on US energy security and the threat of China? They talk about China and CO2 emissions, energy education, and the need for money and investment in energy education. Trisha asks if spending in the climate and green driven Inflation Reduction Act can be pulled back by a different White House Administration and Karl Rove says yes.

Trisha talks about how "no energy is free" and they close the podcast by discussing Desantis' views on energy. Trisha introduces the podcast with 15 minutes of market talk and analysis, covering the rise in oil prices, Saudi cuts, US bank downgrades, US credit card spending, the US housing market, and much much more.

https://youtu.be/0LAJkUHmzQE

Recorded on July 27, 2023 and June 9, 2023

Episode 89 of the PetroNerds podcast is Trisha Curtis' in-person interview and conversation with Harold Hamm, former CEO of Continental Resources and now current Chairman of the Board.

Trisha and Harold cover the US shale patch, domestic politics, and the global outlook on oil prices. They get into the Bakken, the Powder River Basin, taking Continental private, the macro outlook, and much much more. This is a nerdy detail-oriented podcast that is a must-listen to episode for all market players, both public and private. Trisha asks Harold about the Bakken and if Continental knew what they had in the beginning? "Sure we did."

Trisha frontloads this podcast with a deep market dive and recap on what is currently moving oil prices. She covers the whipsawing economic views out of the US and China, Fed moves, rate hikes, inflation, and work from home driving inflation and problems. She talks about China's poor economic data and the China map in the Barbie movie. This is an absolute show stopper of a podcast. Watch, listen, and share it folks! And reach out to PetroNerds via the website (https://petronerds.com/contact/) LinkedIn, or Twitter if you are interested in teaming up with PetroNerds for podcast sponsorship.

https://youtu.be/Oy7JPBSbzXc

Recorded on July 12, 2023 and June 9, 2023

Episode 88 of the PetroNerds podcast is a rapid fire heaving hitting talk Trisha Curtis gave in Dallas, Texas at the Oklahoma Petroleum Alliance's Annual Meeting. Trisha was asked to give a keynote address covering commodity markets and everything happening in the US and worldwide in 30 minutes.

She did it and the audience feedback was stellar. She covers everything from public vs. private operator nuances and behavior, unappreciated ESG and investor pressure, the US and global economy, and why China's role in energy, climate, and the energy transition matters so much. The episode tarts with a fresh and quick market intro. This is the first in a series of star studded PetroNerds podcasts you are not going to want to miss!

https://youtu.be/rj2Xtx83yF4