The Pollsters

It’s Margie’s Birthday! Please donate to World Central Kitchen to help feed furloughed Federal workers!

The shutdown continues to take its toll on federal workers and begins to take a more serious toll on the President’s political standing.

Pelosi has edge over Trump on budget negotiations (CBS News)

Shutdown, Russia drive Trump to all-time high disapproval (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

6 in 10 Americans blame Trump for shutdown (Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)

Voters see shutdown as bigger problem than border situation (FOX News)

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll

How un/popular is Donald Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

President Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)

Cardi B reminds us that the last shutdown was about healthcare. Where do voters stand on ACA and its alternatives like Medicare for all?

Public Opinion on Single-Payer, National Health Plans, and Expanding Access to Medicare Coverage (Kaiser Family Foundation)

More Americans are saying climate change is personally important to them.

Global Warming Concerns Rise Among Americans (Yale University and George Mason University)

The “Brexit” is when you tell people you’re leaving but don’t actually go anywhere. The opposite of that? Ghosting. What do people think is acceptable “ghosting” on Tinder?

How Do You Calculate The Emotional Cost Of Ghosting Someone? (BuzzFeed News)

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SHUTDOWN (and the Wall)

We are now in the longest shutdown in the history of the US government. Is either side feeling political pain yet? And how widespread is the pain everyday people and government workers are feeling?  And what’s the shutdown over? The Wall of course. Still unpopular, but as people move into their partisan camps, different polls tell different stories about whether the wall is becoming more or less popular overall.

Americans blame Trump and GOP much more than Democrats for shutdown (WaPo/ABC News)

Half of Americans fault Trump for shutdown (Reuters)

Most Americans Hold Trump Responsible For Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)

Most Border Wall Opponents, Supporters Say Shutdown Concessions Are Unacceptable (Pew)

Voters support Democratic proposal to reopen parts of the government that do not involve border security (Quinnipiac)

Trump Approval (and Pelosi)

ThePresident’s job approval trends downward at a slightly faster clip, as Nancy Pelosi proves my “everybody loves a winner” theory of politics correct.

Huffpo Tracker

Real Clear Politics Tracker

Trump, Congress Job Approval Mostly Steady Amid Shutdown (Gallup)

Opposing Trump is making Nancy Pelosi more popular (WaPo article on Civiqs and Gallup polls)

2020

Deep, Lasting Partisan Splits on Immigration, Investigating President Trump (GW Poll)

Generation Z

Defining generations: Where Millennials end and Generation Z begins (Pew)

With The Greatest Respect

Half Of Americans 'can’t Tell When A Brit Is Calling Them An Idiot’ (YouGov UK)

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Manafort

Why it would it—or wouldn’t it—be a big deal for a foreign intelligence operation to have internal polling data from a campaign?

Shutdown

Voters blame Trump, GOP for shutdown (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Trump Has Lost Ground In The Shutdown Blame Game (FiveThirtyEight)

Congressional Priorities

Government Gets an Upgrade (Navigator)

Americans' Long List for Congress Spans Education to Income (Gallup)

2020

Elizabeth Warren wins the first Daily Kos 2020 Presidential Straw Poll (Daily Kos)

Daily Kos Democratic Straw Poll, inaugural edition!

American Ideology by Gallup

U.S. Still Leans Conservative, but Liberals Keep Recent Gains

Americans Continue to Embrace Political Independence

#MeToo

Celebrity Soapbox on #MeToo Issues Creates Positive Change, Plurality Says (Morning Consult)

Doggos

Republicans Like Dogs More Than Democrats (YouGov/The Economist)

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Happy New Year! We're back from the holiday break, with lots of (good and bad) holiday stories...about animals eating the wrong things.

Poll of the Week

What do Democrats want in 2020? (USA TODAY/Suffolk University)

The Shutdown

Americans Give Everyone Negative Marks For The Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)

Federal Employees Overwhelmingly Oppose Shutdown (Government Business Council & GovExec.com)

47% of Americans blame Trump for government shutdown (Reuters/Ipsos)

Trump Approval(HuffPo)

Climate Change

Consensus emerges in climate change debate (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)

How American Thinking Has (And Hasn’t) Changed In 80 Years (HuffPo/YouGov)

New Years Resolutions (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)

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Kristen speaks with Patrick Ruffini about Echelon Insights' Middle America Project, which ranks every county in the U.S. on how representative it is of the country as a whole.

They discuss how the typical American community isn’t a small town that voted for Donald Trump to counterbalance Hillary Clinton’s lopsided margin in the cities. By definition, it’s something in between. This usually means that it’s a small city with surrounding suburbs, mainly located in the Northeast and Midwest, that not only was closely contested in 2016 but closely resembles the social and demographic characteristics of the country as a whole.

Kristen and Patrick also talk about the accuracy of election polling and the "new" tech that drives every election.

You can subscribe to Patrick's newsletter at EchelonInsights.com/TheIntersection.

The Pollsters is on hiatus next week but will be back in 2019! Happy holidays! 

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This week The Pollsters welcome Abby Livingston, bureau chief for the Texas Tribune, to talk about her recent article in Politico Magazine, "The Hardest Glass Ceiling in Politics". 

The somewhat controversial article addresses the sexism challenges faced by women who work as politics consultants. Kristen and Margie share some of their own experiences with Abby and dig in to the journalistic methods and insights she brought to the project.

This is ann important issue and we're grateful to Abby for taking it on.

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Holiday Polls

Most Americans don't think that "Die Hard" is a Christmas movie (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

Personal Importance of Hanukkah Varies by Denomination among Jewish Americans (PRRI)

Trump, Democrats, and the USA

Trump Job Approval (HuffPo)

Trump's Political Risk Spreads to Small-Town America (Selzer & Co./Grinnell College)

Democrats Are Divided On The Ideological Future Of Their Party (HuffPo/YouGov)

Americans Not Optimistic About Trump, Democrats Cooperating (Gallup)

Democrats Lead Surge in Belief U.S. Should Be World Leader (Gallup)

Parenting and Family

Millennial Parent and Education (Echelon Insights)

My marriage? Great! Yours? Not so much. (Brookings Institution analysis of American Family Survey by Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy/Deseret News/YouGov)

The Dog Poop Blues

Is it OK to put your dog's poop in someone else's trash can? (Coloradoan)

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Poll of the Week:

Results of the TIME Person of the Year Reader's Poll (BTS WINS!)

Trumplandia and Political Divisions

Trump Approval (HuffPo)

Few Expect Country to Become United (Monmouth)

Americans Want the New Congress to Provide a Check on the White House, Follow Facts in Investigations (Navigator)

Many Americans Are Giving Trump The Benefit Of The Doubt On Manufacturing Jobs (HuffPo/YouGov)

Republicans and Women

The Republican Party and Women in Politics (DemocracyFund Voice)

The Young and The Old

Teens who are constantly online are just as likely to socialize with their friends offline (Pew Research)

People want to live longer, but maybe not to 100 (Axios/SurveyMonkey)

Critical Thinking

87% say they’re open to opposing views, but only 25% seek them out (Reboot Foundation)

Unwelcome Guests

First sign a guest has overstayed his or her welcome? (CantonRep.com)

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#191: A Tale of Two Exit Polls

First: Kristen has a new show on SiriusXM but The Pollsters will still be here for your data geek love!

Civility & Division

Most Democrats see Republicans as racist, sexist (Axios/Survey Monkey)

Midterm Follow-up

A Mandate for Democrats? (CNN/SSRS)

Public Wants Congress to be a Check on Trump (Monmouth)T

rump approval (HuffPo)

2020 (Already? Really?)

Trump's 2020 woman problem (Axios/Survey Monkey)

Biden, Bernie, Beto lead 2020 Dem field (Politico/Morning Consult)

Exit Polling Is Changing

Edison, the historically popular choice

AP VoteCast, the new kid on the block

Thanksgiving

FavoriteThanksgiving Pies and Activities (The Pioneer Woman)

The Pollsters is taking next week off. From all of us to all of you, have a very Happy Thanksgiving!

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The 2018 Midterm elections are over (mostly) and things turned out much like the pollsters (and The Pollsters) expected, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans making gains in the Senate. While Democrats didn't win some close races, they still managed to do well in legislative chambers.

The Pollsters grade the performance of polling across the country in this election and recognize that there are several high profile races where, even though they were within the margin of error, there are likely to be questions about polling reliability.

There are a lot of data yet to sift through and there are sure to be post-election polls in the coming days, so be sure to come back next week to get our analysis of all the post-election numbers. One new poll: American Jewish Voters Strongly Oppose Trump, conducted by GBA Strategies, commissioned by J Street.

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