The Pollsters

#189: Scary Midterms and Fortnite Costumes

Poll of the Week

Views of voting access linked to opinion on diversity in the U.S. (Pew Research)

Youth

Harvard IOP Youth Poll Fall 2018 (Institute of Politics, Harvard)

Millennials Turnout (NBC/GenForward)

Trump and Republicans

Job Approval (Huffington Post)

Partisan Polarization Dominates Trump Era (PRRI)

2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)

Women and the Economy

Red-Hot Economy? Women Aren’t Convinced (New York Times)

Halloween

Most Popular Halloween Costumes 2018 (Google Trends)

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In this very special episode, we're joined by Republican House race expert Liesl Hickey and Democratic House race expert Ali Lapp, hosts of the House Talk with Ali and Liesl podcast. We cover how political experts view house race polls compared to the Generic Ballot and the specifics of the upcoming midterm election.

How much is President Trump helping or hurting Republican candidates? The Democrats appear likely to take back the House, but by how much? What are the implications of the massive gender gap that the GOP faces among women, and is this the start of a long-term trend or just a temporary situation?

Margie, Kristen, Ali, and Liesl answer all these questions and more in this week on The Pollsters!

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#187: Strong Feelings on Immigration and TV Reboots

Midterms & Trump Approval

Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall (CNBC)

Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections (Washington Post/ABC News)

2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)

Trump Job Approval (Huffington Post)

2020 Democratic Primary

More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field (CNN/SSRS)

Immigration

Varied and Changing Attitudes on Immigration in America (Echelon Insights/BGA Strategies for Voters Study Group)

Voter Identity & IssuesHidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape (More In Common)

Young Voters Might Actually Show Up At The Polls This Year (FiveThirtyEight)

Little Partisan Agreement on the Pressing Problems Facing the U.S. (Pew Research)

Television RebootsTV Reboots May Be Losing Their Luster With Viewers (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

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Midterms

Generic Congressional (Real Clear Politics)

2018 Midterm Voters: Issues and Political Values (Pew Research)

Gender Differences (CNN/SSRS)

Senate

Latest Senate Polls (Real Clear Politics)

Texas - Tennessee - New Jersey (CBS)

Nevada (NBC/Marist)

Arizona (ABC-15 / OH Predictive Insights)

North Dakota (FOX News)

Florida (Mason-Dixon)

House

House Battleground (Washington Post - Schar School)

Kavanaugh

Economist/YouGov

Majority oppose Kavanaugh, but his popularity grows with GOP (CNN)

Trump

Approval (HuffPo)

Polling Strategies

Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files (Pew Research)

Youth Poll (But not enough about Taylor Swift!)

Young voters energized for midterms (Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement) 

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Poll of the Week

Trump Gets Negative Ratings for Many Personal Traits, but Most Say He Stands Up for His Beliefs (Pew Research)

“How you feel about GOP loyalty to Trump probably depends on your age” (Kristen in The Washington Examiner)

Kavanaugh Confirmation

Kavanaugh opinion hardens along partisan lines (Politico Morning Consult)

Brett Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford hearing spurs more division (CBS News)

Opposition to Kavanaugh grows after Senate hearing (Reuters/Ipsos)

More U.S. Voters Say Don't Confirm Kavanaugh (Quinnipiac)

Midterms check-in with Optimus Election Modeling

Events with 30% chances do sometimes happen...about one out of three times.

DecisionDesk HQ by OptimusHouse

Generic Polls (Real Clear Politics)

Trump Approval

Trump Approval (HuffPo)

Coffee Is SOOOO Important!

Survey Confirms Coffee Makes the World a Better Place (Nestlé/Morning Consult)

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#184: New Florida Midterm Polls

Florida Governor & SenatePoll: Andrew Gillum leads DeSantis by 4, Rick Scott and Bill Nelson tied (Tampa Bay Times, UFN)Poll: Democrats have narrow lead in top Florida contests (NCBNews.com, Marist)

KavanaughMajority of Americans oppose Kavanaugh nomination if Ford’s allegation is true, poll says (PBS, NPR, Marist)Voters in Battleground Districts Are Divided on Kavanaugh (The Upshot)Record number of voters oppose Kavanaugh nomination (FOX News)

Women, Leadership, and GenderViews on the state of gender and leadership and obstacles for women (Pew Research Center)The State of Gender Equality for U.S. Adolescents (Plan International, PerryUndem)Major gaps in views of women in politics by gender, party affiliation (NBCNews, Wall Street Journal)

Trump and the GOPTrump Job Approval (Huffington P0st)Republican Party Favorability Highest in Seven Years (Gallup)2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)Democrats hold the advantage in November's elections (NBCNews, Wall Street Journal)

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#183: Spring is a Lie, This Fall is Fakakta

Poll of the WeekRepublicans, Democrats See Opposing Party as More Ideological Than Their Own (Pew) 

KavanaughCNN poll (pre-Dr. Ford)

The Week In MidtermsHouse GenericNate Cohn’s Poll FactorySenate RacesMontana (CBS)Missouri (CBS)Arizona & Tennessee (CNN)

The Week In TrumpJob Approval (HuffPo)Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to name Trump as a reason for their pick in congressional elections (Washington Post)

New Voter Study Group Papers! Why Americans' Desires for a Third Party Are Unlikely to Come TrueReligious Trump VotersAmericans' Economic Woes are Hurting Trump

Goodbye, Summer.Most Popular Season Coming to an End (Gallup)

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No, You Can’t Have Partials

Poll of the Week: Crying

Red States/Blue SenatorsNBC/Marist poll: It's a neck-and-neck Senate race in TennesseePoll: High-profile Missouri Senate race locked in a dead heatNBC/Marist poll: Democrat Joe Donnelly has slight edge in Indiana Senate race

TrumpHuffPost: Trump Job Approval

QPac: U.S. Voters Believe Anonymous Trump Charges 2-1CNN Poll: Trump approval down 6 points in a month, hits low among independents

Nate Cohn is either a lunatic or a geniusPolling in Real Time: The 2018 Midterm Elections

NRA BrandNRA Brand Suffers Lasting DamageNRA Slipping With Voters, Though Many Have Moved on From Gun Control

9/11Defending against terrorism has remained a top policy priority for Americans since 9/11Ariel Edwards-Levy Twitter thread on post-9/11 polling

HurricanesHurricane: Despite Irma, millions of Floridians wouldn’t evacuate from powerful storm heading their way, survey finds

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Poll of the week:

WP/ABC poll on the Democratic advantage in the midterms

President Trump:

Job Approval

Generic Ballot

Brett Kavanaugh (last name sung to the tune of Van Halen’s “Panama”):

Fox News Poll

CNN Poll

WPA Intelligence Memo

Press Freedom:

Building a Narrative Toward Trust: Echelon Insights + Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

KFF Poll on corruption, healthcare, and the most important issue of the campaigns

Notre Dame and Michigan are Trash (not really, everyone hates Alabama)

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Check us out @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters

Poll of the week:

Pew. Maybe we *are* entitled to our own facts?

Hot primaries!

RCP: Florida average  

RCP: Arizona average 

Campaign-mania

RCP Generic

538 Forecasts

Trumplandia

HP: Trump's approval 

Pew: The something-something of Trump expectations: 

HP on the slow news day last week

YouGov Toplines

USA Today/Suffolk on investigation

Pumpkin Spice Latte

ABC News 4, Charleston, SC

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