The Pollsters

With Kristen away, we recorded this great interview with a guy who's been everywhere--Bruce Mehlman. What can he tell us about bipartisanship? Find him @bpmehlman.

14th & G podcast

Tech CEO Council

Polling memo

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Check out some past polling on the investigation:

Navigator Research

Morning Consult/Politico

CNN

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Send your grievances & complaints to: @ksoltisanderson @margieomero & @thepollsters.

Hey, need contacts? Get a discount here: --->>

https://www.simplecontacts.com/pollsters

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Midterm mania: OH-12, KS, and the generic

Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election

RCP Average.

Emerson memo.

Monmouth Crosstabs.

GBA Memo 7/262018

Generic Congressional Vote

President Trump Job Approval

Trump defectors! You might be surprised how FEW there are…

Pew: For Most Trump Voters, “Very Warm” Feelings for him Endured [EMBARGOED LINK]

War with the media rages onward

Republicans: Give Trump the Power to Shut Down Media This is not new.Ipsos Poll on Sentiment Towards American Media

Everybody colludes. Don’t they?

40% of Republicans say Russia election meddling isn't a big deal Trump Jr.’s Meeting Was Wrong, Americans Say, But Fewer See It As Out Of The Norm

Local food!

Americans Still Favor Beer Over Other Alcoholic Beverages

Snapshot: Few Americans Vegetarian or Vegan

Most Americans Try to Eat Locally Grown Foods

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Kristen saw a concert. Margie has jet lag. We're both in LA, taking in the kale smoothies & easy living.

I Can’t Go For That

Trump approval (HuffPo)

Poll Of The Week:

Who do you trust? (CBS)

Say It Isn’t So:

Generic ballot (RCP)

California House

CA-50 (Tulchin Research, July 17-23)

CA-48 (Monmouth)

CA-25 (Global Strategy Group, June 29)

Texas Senate

RCP Averages

Texas LYCEUM Poll

Quinnipiac

Florida Senate

It's still tight (Miami Herald)

More

GOP Praise Trump at Record Rates (Wesleyan)

Dem candidates should be bolder on gun control (GBA Strategies)

Wedding Cakes, Same-Sex Marriage, and the Future of LGBT Rights in America (PRRI)

Maneater: Sharks & Politics

Let’s live every week like it’s shark week

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What’s the top issue?

Americans now think immigration is most important problem (Gallup)

Views on Mexico as an ally are also shifting (Gallup)

Latest Navigator: data on Family Separation

Americans’ views on Government Agencies

Growing Partisan Differences in Views of the FBI; Stark Divide over ICE (Pew Research)

Trump’s approval and the General Ballot, post-Helsinki

Trump’s approval is slightly up (Huffpo)

General ballot has Dems chances rising (Real Clear Politics)

Huge GOP majority backs Trump's Putin performance (Axios / SurveyMonkey)

Little public support for Trump in doubting Russian interference (ABC / Washington Post)

Most Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Putin summit (CBS)

Public gives Trump thumbs-down on Russia (NBC / WSJ)

Lots more data from Navigator on how Americans feel(pre-Helsinki)

Banned Wedding Songs(FiveThirtyEight)

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With so much bad news, @margieomero & @ksoltisanderson talk about Hamilton & ice cream.

Poll of the Week:Spouses Report Earnings (Census) (Full Study)

Trump’s UK ApprovalYouGov/ITV (Crosstabs) - 9th-10th July 2018

A BMG poll for The Independent last week asked Brits if Prime Minister May was right to invite Trump. (Toplines)

NATO (Gallup) ToplinesPew (Spring 2017)Economist/YouGov Americans become more anti-Russian under Trump (NBC)Gallup PollingThe Economist/YouGovTrump approval!RCP538Generic ballot!RCP538SCOTUS The HillGallupIce Cream!Rasmussen: Chocolate (19%), Butter Pecan (16%)YouGov: Chocolate (14%), Vanilla (13%) 

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Poll of the Week: Axios/ SurveyMonkey Poll “Democrats’ Senate dreams slip away”

Survey Monkey write-up: “Senate battleground polls show Democrats in a tight spot”

Criticism: Nate Silver (Twitter): The Axios treatment of this poll is basically "How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart". But wait until we focus on likely voters.

Changing view of SCOTUS

Pew Research  Interpreting Constitution in current times vs Originalists. Are these questions answered by what view will produce the political outcome respondents want? In a vacuum? Growing share of Americans say Supreme Court should base its rulings on what Constitution means today5 facts about the Supreme Court

American Voters Support Roe V. Wade 2-1, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;

Dem Candidates Up 9 Points In U.S. House Races

Roe v Wade and abortion

So many ways to ask the question. Pretty clear majorities say don’t overturn. Pollsters can frame questions to take advantage of affirmation bias.

What the polls say about Americans, abortion, and the Supreme Court There are so many other issues beyond Roe.

How will this influence people’s midterm votes?Democrats hope Kennedy’s retirement will make the courts a galvanizing issue for their votersPolling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme CourtA quarter of Republicans voted for Trump to get Supreme Court picks — and it paid off2018 Generic Congressional Vote Trump Job Approval

Americans Are Having Fewer Babies. They Told Us Why.

It’s not that they’re selfish, they just can’t afford it.  Where is infertility on this list?

POLL: Did you make it out to see fireworks this Fourth of July holiday? We want our fireworks in our backyard or in the supreme court debate.

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A surprise takedown in NY-14, where there was no polling in the Ocasio-Cortez/Crowley race.  Is the shockwave also a bellwether?  We cheer women, young and old, rocking the Democratic primaries (70% of open seats going to women over men) and wonder why that’s not happening on the GOP side (30%). We’ve got Westworld, Scandinavia, anger, exhaustion, and days and days of the Red Frickin’ Hen.

Primary Day

As blue as Maryland is, is it a good place to be Larry Hogan?RealClearPolitics Maryland Governor RacePost-U. Md. poll: Jealous, Baker lead in Democratic race overshadowed by HoganWashington Post-University of Maryland poll - 2018 Maryland governor's election - May 29-June 3

New YorkRealClearPolitics: New York 11th District - Republican PrimaryGrimm vs. Donovan NY 11th Republican Primary

Trumplandia

Trump approval rating Majority of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time: CNBC surveyBy the numbers: Trump’s economic approval ratings hit a new high

2018 Generic Congressional Vote

Polls: Dems lead in three key Senate races

Virginia: GOP Trailing in CD10

West Virginia: Dems Doing Well in Senate, CD03

Midterm Issues

Immigration Gains Steam As A Midterm Issue 

Voters More Focused on Control of Congress – and the President – Than in Past Midterms

Images and Ideas to Engage and Persuade

Freedom Rings in Places You Might Not Expect

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Tom Hanks is Not Here for Your Partisan Nonsense

Distinguishing Between Factual and Opinion Statements in the NewsNo one party has a monopoly on ability to distinguish between fact and opinion, but people tend to believe that statements that favor their own opinions are factual.

Family separation pollingLess Than One-Third Of The Public Supports Family SeparationsMajority oppose policy that causes family separation, but Republicans approveAll four outlets show majority oppose the policy, with large party differences. What does support of this unpopular policy mean for Republicans? A quarter of America is ride or die with Donald Trump.

TrumplandiaAmericans are satisfied with Trump's North Korea summithttp://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6b.-.north.korea.pdfTrump Job ApprovalGeneric BallotMelania’s approval rating also decreasesNumbers show that people responded well to the summit. It’s a Thing. A major or minor achievement. Generic ballot shows the spread between Democrats and Republicans continues to grow. Donald and Melania’s approval ratings both drop, but her numbers are much better than her husband’s.

Who doesn’t Approve of Tom Hanks?American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the AnswerThis one is a head-scratcher. In so many ways.

World CupPoll: World Cup Rivals NBA Finals, World Series in Capturing Young Adults’ AttentionOnly 20% of US adults plan to watch. US men are not in it, but so many pretty men are. And some of them are biters.

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