On today’s show we are talking about the most recent employment report that was published on Friday of last week.

You’ve no doubt heard the saying that you can use statistics selectively to make just about any argument. On today’s show we are going to take a more wholistic view of the US employment report and hopefully construct a more complete view of what we think is happening. Is the government lying? No, I don’t think so. But the conclusions being drawn are definitely the result of spin being put on the numbers.

In the July report it was reported that the economy added 528,000 job and 372,000 jobs in June. These are impressive numbers. The White House proudly claimed that all of the job losses from the pandemic had been officially erased from history. The unemployment rate was down to 3.5% and the economy is strong.

It turns out that the Bureau of Labor and Statistics actually publishes two different employment survey reports at the same time and they have significantly different methodologies and therefore different results.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about one of the patterns that has emerged with new home buyers.

The typical scenario with a new home or condo purchase involves signing a purchase agreement, several months, sometimes a year in advance of the actual delivery date of the finished product. There are a number of real estate closings scheduled for August and September this year when the actual agreement was made in the fall of last year. In some cases, the agreement was signed over a year ago.

So fast forward to today. Interest rates have increased. Appraisers are taking a much more conservative approach on the valuation under direction of the lenders. When they got to the closing and many buyers did not have a rate lock on their financing. They also didn’t have a bank appraisal to accompany the loan request at the time of purchase.

While the borrower may have qualified with the bank when they signed the deal, they didn’t have a commitment letter from the lender with which to close the deal.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about the new Inflation Reduction Act just passed by the US Senate and sent to the Congress for a vote. Anytime a piece of legislation comprising nearly $1/2T of new spending is tabled, I think it is worth spending at least five minutes on a podcast to analyze it.

The first thing you notice when you read the 755 page document, is that it has almost nothing to do with inflation. In fact, out of the 755 pages, the word inflation only appears 35 times in the entire document.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

On today's show we're talking about the steps and implications of China's rise to commercial dominance and the possibility of international transactions being subject to Chinese central government oversight.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

Kim is one of the principals at Iron Peak Properties where they specialize in multi-tenant industrial buildings. This is a narrow segment of the industrial space and one that offers strong resilience against economic cycles. To connect with  Kim and to learn more visist ironpeakproperties.com. 

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

Dave Dubeau is a real estate investor who also owns a boutique digital marketing agency. He has two different podcasts aimed at two different audiences. He uses a podcast to maintain a conversation with his clients and prospective clients. 

His latest podcast is focused on training aspiring capital raisers in real estate how to raise funds. To connect with Dave visit raisecapital101show.com.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about who will want to sell in today’s environment. There are a lot of mixed signals happening in the market.

There are those who are acting as if nothing has changed in the last 120 days. On the other hand, there are those who absolutely know something has changed. We have entered into a completely different set of market conditions in the past 90 days. Interest rates have gone up and the cost of debt service has increased by nearly 40% in a very short time period.

I’m going to propose a thesis that is going to continue to keep inventories low in the coming year.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

Today’s question comes from Cody who asks:

I've assembled several adjacent acres consisting of multiple property types in a prime area. What's your experience in this? Is it better to develop the land complete and sell lots / pads or sell the assembled package to a developer?

I have more land banking experience than land developing experience, but how hard can it be and is it worth it?

This is a great question. I’m going to answer your question with a series of questions. It’s the answer to those questions that will ultimately help answer your question.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about a different form of counter party risk. When we speak about counter party risk, we are usually having a discussion about the balance sheet. One person’s asset is another person’s liability. The quality of the asset is strictly linked to the ability to service the liability.

But there is a second form of counter party risk that is not often talked about in the same terms. This form of counter party risk applies to the income statement. One person’s income is another person’s expense. If one party can’t afford to pay the expenses, then then the second party’s income is at risk.

This leads to the question of which assets have the greatest income risk in this stagflation environment. On today’s show I’m going out on a limb to talk about three different asset types that I believe are most at risk in the current market conditions.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: [email protected]

On today's show we're talking about the mixed signals we're getting from energy markets. The narrative in the mainstream media concerning energy is outright misleading. It's a political narrative that is disconnected from the facts and the true supply / demand situation in the market. Since the economy is tied to energy, you need to pay very close attention to energy markets.