Making good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering practical insights.

A little statistical training can go a long way! We geek out on Bayes' Theorem, discuss why poker develops useful reasoning skills, and tackle investing decisions using probabilities. Improving predictions requires tracking your results and having the courage to map what you don't know.

We dissect Signal versus noise in forecasting explained and Understanding data prediction with Nate Silver, offering an analytical perspective on how to distinguish meaningful patterns from mere noise.

If you want to enhance your critical thinking abilities and decision-making under uncertainty, tune in! We promise no boring academic lectures - just practical tips served with our signature blend of intellectual curiosity and humor.

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Wiser Than Yesterday

Nico and Sam set out to read the world's best books, from philosophy to sci-fi, economics to who knows what.

Wiser Pod Website

Sam Webster Harris

👋 LinkedIn - Sam Harris

🧠 Psychology Pod - Growth Mindset Psychology

🚀 New Pod - How to Change the World

Nicolas Vereecke

👋 LinkedIn - Nico Vereecke

🤖 AI world domination - Evil Plan Inc

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How to Change the World: The History and Future of Innovation

Available on all podcast players:

• SPOTIFY - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/1Fj3eFjEoAEKF5lWQxPJyT⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
• APPLE - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-change-the-world-the-history-of-innovation/id1815282649⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
• YOUTUBE - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@HowToChangeTheWorldPodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Chapters

00:00 The Signal and The Noise

02:25 Moneyball - Importance of prediction

05:50 Poker as a Prediction Game

07:44 Base Theorem

11:57 Using poker to illustrate Bayes' theorem

15:53 Frequent feedback improves forecast skill

21:14 Overfitting - The problem of limited data and latching onto false patterns

23:23 Europe's healthcare system vs. USA

27:31 Improving prediction framework and minimising mistakes

29:15 Nico's company

33:10 Ratings & Reflection

35:16 Send off

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