The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

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1. For a team priced as high as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are, there seems to be an awful lot of questions. What happened to Brady for 11 days during training camp? What will happen with Chris Godwin? Can the Buccaneers fill the hole of Gronkowski retiring? Will Todd Bowles be a flop - again - moving to the HC role? There are many missing pieces.

2. Perhaps no missing pieces are more important than the offensive line. Alex Kappa and Ali Marpet departed. Ryan Jensen got hurt at center. His backup got hurt the next week. Tristian Wirfs is banged up too. Nearly the entire OL unit will have turned over or has a new starter going into the opening of this season. 

3. If Brady is dealing with something we are uncertain about, the offensive line regresses and the weapons take a step back from a season ago, this is a team that is drastically over priced at 11.5 wins, even within the easy NFC. 

4. If there is one point of confidence it is the defense which is loaded up front, especially with the addition of Hicks. Running the ball on the Buccaneers will be tough again and the secondary will be above average. But to what level must this unit play again if the offensive production is reduced? 

Not sure how anyone can go over 11.5 with the Buccaneers or be looking to back them consistently in the 15 games they are favored in. 

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1. In his rookie year, Justin Herbert wildly overperformed expectations playing under pressure in the pocket. In his second year, Justin Herbert wildly over performed expectations on high leverage downs. While it is easy to point the finger and expect regression...this comes down to play calling. 

2. Lombardi did almost everything he could to put Herbert and the Chargers in negative situations drive after drive after drive. If that happens again this season, then regression is logical. But, if things change for the better, the offense has a ridiculously ceiling and the team is still underpriced at 10.5 wins. 

3. The defense has few if any holes across the board and will be more than able to keep this team competitive within games. As a roster overall, this is one of the three best in the league. 

4. Everything about the Chargers points to betting the over, but I'd rather spot this team week to week and see what we get from the play calling perspective early. I think there is a ton of value betting this team in play, at halftimes and more as we learn their tendencies and what may have changed from an early down play calling spot. 

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1. I have been down on Tennessee for a couple of seasons, and am sticking to the sentiment. 

2. This will be the worst offensive line the Titans have put on the field since Tannehill and Henry joined the team. This unit will likely finish the season in the bottom five of the league. 

3. Henry off of the Jones injury seeing a decline in explosive play rate for the last three seasons is difficult to trust behind that OL, especially with a lack of skill position weapons (Woods off a significant injury too as WR #1). 

4. This is still a team that runs the ball far too often on early downs, went away from the presnap motion and play action tendencies that Smith used to make this offense work with dwindling talent at skill positions and a bad offensive line. 

5. To make matters worse, the schedule of QB's on the road is the most difficult in the NFL. This seems like the year where the Titans finally fail to meet lofty expectations. 

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Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23 

Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)

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Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23 

Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)

1. In 2021 the Dallas Cowboys had an insane outlier of the season on the defensive side of the football. Not only did they lead the league in takeaways and turnover differential, the value they gained in EPA off the turnovers was as high as any team that is tracked in the places I looked.

2. Takeaways are extremely difficult to replicate, and not sustainable year to year. The Cowboys despite the defensive fortune still allowed 350 yards per game which ranked below average in the league. 

3. Much of their success came against favorable QB's as well. More than half of their wins were against non-starters are QB no longer in the league. Much of their success came within the division which goes a long way to skewing their strength of schedule in 2022. 

4. With the defense very likely to regress, the focus shifts to the offense which lost many pieces. The OL is a lot weaker than it has been in years past, Amari Cooper is out, Gallup is still hurt and Washington is out to begin the year. Skill position is decimated. It is likely we see much more running in 2022. 

5. Overall the Cowboys are a team to sell. Whether you want to bet the full season unders, win totals or just fade them often week to week, this team is set to fall back despite their price point being higher this year, than last. 

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Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23 

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1. Professional bettors LOVED the Eagles in 2021 in the second half of the season. Why? Because they made a huge offensive shift going from one of the most pass heavy teams, to one of the most run heavy teams. This worked for their offense.

2. It may be easy to assume that Sirianni and company will stick with what worked a year ago considering the projected schedule of rush defenses they face is so soft, but their success in 2021 came against many light boxes and run favorable matchups. 

3. The Eagles will be elite on the offensive line and put emphasis on the pass game in the offseason adding AJ Brown. If defenses sell out to stop the run, the Eagles pass game will be what bettors need to note most. Watch for defensive schemes early in the year. 

4. I want to be buying the Eagles as a team, but have conflicting bets with the Giants but more so because the worst position on the team is at QB and this is a team favored in 11 games. A lot can go right with this team though, so watch out for Philadelphia week to week for bets. 

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Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23 

Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)