The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

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Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. I love everything about the Colts this season. 

2. The big thing to expect is a big change in pace. Last season the Colts were one of the 10 slowest teams in the league, this season I believe they will be one of the 10 quickest. Matt Ryan has been pushing pace and tempo all offseason and into preseason, and a jump that big could change things for this team relative to market in a huge way. 

3. The accuracy of Matt Ryan is going to change the way that Reich trusts the pass game. Last season Indianapolis ran the ball at the 5th highest rate. But how much was due to the pass game being handcuffed? With a QB under center he can trust (3rd in accuracy for Ryan vs 33rd for Wentz), I expect the pass rate to be much higher. 

4. While the OL for IND gets a lot worse, Matt Ryan's performance under pressure will be a huge asset. Wentz under pressure (or from a clean pocket) was a major issue. Ryan stabilizes this offense and opens up run game opportunities. 

5. Key pieces on defense hold over, with Bradley stepping in as a DC which will keep the team schematically close to the same. Between all of the upside on offense, positivity from the receivers on the scheme, stability around the roster and one of the three easiest schedules, I love the Colts. 

Bets I have made (*= love these two)

SB 25/1

AFC 12/1

South -115*

Playoffs -172*

Ryan o3900.5

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1. Really tough team to preview for me. Not a burning opinion one way or another with the Cardinals in 2022.

2. Couple things I know for certain. The splits on Murray when he is healthy or not are enormous. Huge drop off in production and that has an impact on his stats overall that I do not believe is fully accounted for by the market.

3. The loss of Hopkins will be huge for this team. As bettors, we must treat this team two different ways essentially. With Hopkins and without. Important to think about the first six games this season and the difficulty of schedule. 

4. Overall there are no breaks for Arizona. This schedule is incredibly difficult and by seasons end will likely end up the most difficult in the league. Opposing QB's are stacked and thats trouble for this defense which has one of the 2-3 worst secondaries in the league and lost their best pass rusher.

As much as I would love to fade Arizona, they have been adjusted in market in a big way. Tough one here. 

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1. The Las Vegas Raiders were BIG overachievers in 2021 excelling in all the major categories that bettors love to look at as luck metrics. Point differential, one score games, second half combacks, schedule luck. Everything went the way of the Raiders in 2021. 

2. There is A LOT of optimism about the Raiders offense in 2022. The addition of Adams gives the Raiders arguably the best receiver trio in the league between WR/SLOT/TE with Adams, Renfrow and Waller. Each are terrific route runners and great in space. 

3. On paper, this looks ideal to pair with Derek Carr who is extremely accurate and consistent in his play. Annually he is one of the most overlooked QB's and now with top talent around him, everything is in place to succeed. 

4. The only problem I see is that in spending to get Adams, they neglected the offensive line. Carr season after season has played with an elite OL blocking for him. This season will be the worst he has ever had, with just one starter grading above average at his position in 2021. 

5. This is significant, because the splits for Carr when pressured vs kept clean turn him into a below average QB, rather than a top talent in the league. If all of the preseason love for this offense is fuelled by his past performance with a top OL, perhaps this team is over valued considering what he will have to do make do with this year. 

All that said, the Raiders defense will be terrible, and Las Vegas should find themselves in plenty of high scoring games this season against such a difficult schedule. A over team here in many ways, but not as clear cut as made out to be. 

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 1. Sean Payton is out, Dennis Allen is in. Overall going from an offensive minded coach to defensive minded coach is a stay away for me for any long term bets BUT, Carmichael stays on as the OC who has 13 years of continuity with the roster. I think that matters and makes this the exception. 

2. There are also many positives to expect from the offense due to personnel alone. The Saints get Michael Thomas back, added Jarvis Landry and drafted speeder Chris Olvae. There is hopefully stability with Winston under center after the Saints started 4 QB's in 2021. 

3. The trio of wide receivers will mesh well with Winstons willingness to push the ball down field. Annually he is among the top of the list in air yards per throw and loves to be aggressive. 

4. The extra impact of this is teams needing to respect the deep ball and speed of wide receivers. This in turn will open up space for Alvin Kamara from the backfield, who was singled out all last season due to so many injuries. 

5. The addition of Maye and Mathieu negates some key losses in the secondary, but this is a defense despite a difficult schedule I believe can play to league average which is enough to keep this team competitive all season.

Bullish on the Saints. I think nine wins is the mark for them this season and I have bet them at +118 to make the playoffs. 

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1. I love when a team makes the shift from a defensive minded head coach to an offensive minded head coach. The Minnesota Vikings in 2022 get a much needed change - and upgrade - from Zimmer to O'Connell 

2. One thing that O'Connell has alreayd proven to bring over is an increased rate of three wide receiver sets which is going to mean more Jefferson - Thielen - Osborne on the field at the same time, which is exactly what this team needs.

3. Last season the Vikings passed a ton out of heavy personnel, but already in reports and interviews with Justin Jefferson and new HC O'Connell, the Vikings are going to be very different in 2022 and spread out opponents more with 3 WR sets. This will lead to better passing game success, and rushing. 

4. In 2021, the Vikings finished 12th in offensive yards per play and 26th in defensive yards per play allowed. I think it is reasonable to think the Vikings improve on both marks with the coaching change. This is a bet on team. 

5. I have bet Minnesota to win the NFC at 20/1, win the North at +240, Over 9.5 wins +105, Make playoffs at -118 and Jefferson OPY at 16/1. 

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1. There is good reason to believe the Miami Dolphins improve on both offense and defense in 2022 - but whether or not it shows right away, is to be seen. 

2. The replacement of Brian Flores - a defensive minded coach - with Mike McDaniel is a massive upgrade for this team. The San Francisco/Shanahan style of offense is going to go a long way in opening up this Dolphins offense. The hiring of the Chargers run game coordinator and tendencies of the SF playbook suggest a much higher run rate. 

3. The staple of that offense is opening up receivers downfield in space. Tua for all he is criticized for, is extremely accurate. Now that he has receivers open in space, behind an above average offensive line, he is going to have a lot of success. 

4. There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to the skill talent too. Hill, Wilson, Waddle, Gesicki, Williams. This offense is loaded! A strong backfield too. Everything points up here. 

5. Where this gets interesting is the schedule difficulty goes up too, way up. Miami moves from the fourth easiest schedule last season, to eight most difficult this seaosn. A huge leap that is front loaded. Miami may end up still being under rated by the end of September. Lots of betting potential here. 

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1. Washington could be VERY different in 2022 which I am unsure the markets are fully accounting for. 

2. Make no mistake about it, Carson Wentz has accuracy issues. This is not a secret. But, he is much more willing and able of pushing the ball downfield compared to the last 5-6 starting QB's Washington has had. With McLaurin, Dotson, Brown and Samuel, that could unlock this offense.

3. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner is sneaky underrated, and puts his guys in positions to succeed. The offensive line is solid, and the run game support will be there to make life easy for Wentz. 

4. No team faces a bigger change in strength of schedule in 2022 than Washington. They go from the most difficult in 2021 to the 7th easiest projected schedule in 2022. This team will be better on both sides of the ball.

5. The kicker in all of this is ultimately Wentz. If he can play to the level of an average quarterback, the weapons are there for this team to do well. If he is Wentz of old, this team may struggle to win 7 games and he won't finish the season. It's really that simple. But as is, I just don't think the market is accounting for the offensive upside here. 

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1. In March of this offseason, Jakob Johnson did an interview with a media network in his hometown of Stuggart, Germany. During the interview he said his position had been "eliminated" from the Patriots offense.

2. This is significant, because at fullback, he played more than 300 offensive snaps and the Patriots in total ran 23% of their offensive snaps with at least two running backs on the field. If the position is eliminated, where do those snaps go?

3. I believe that they will largely become passing snaps. New England still had a lot of success running out of 3 WR sets and the addition of Parker gives them a viable trio of wide receivers to rely on.

4. There are other signs to more passes and up tempo offense coming in 2022. Mac Jones went through an extreme weight loss and conditioning program, beat reporters have consistent spoke about how much quicker the offense looks on field, and McDaniels is out as the play caller. 

5. While Belichick assumes responsibility for the play calling duties, Patricia will be inserted as the stand in OC. Considering the loss of JC Jackson and key pieces in the middle of the Patriots defense, they will be forced into more zone coverage than man, which will change the defensive look overall against a much more difficult schedule of quarterbacks. 

I think the Patriots score a ton of points in 2022 - while giving up just as many, or more. Their totals are too low, and this is a prime over team in the season ahead.