The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/detroit-lions-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. The price point for the Detroit Lions in 2022 is quite different from 2021. They move from 5 to 6.5 shaded towards 7 win total. An average spread of 8.1 to 3.3. Underdog in 17 games to 14. 

2. In 2021, the Lions were two different teams playing from ahead and playing from behind. Of their 1,047 offensive snaps last season, just 17% saw the Lions leading while 60% saw them trailing by at least a FG. When trailing by 3+ points, the Lions offensive success rate was above average. When leading, they were among the worst in the NFL. All season long the Lions offense performed well when playing from behind, but seldom got out in front and built leads. 

3. The big difference and turning point for the 2021 season was the mid year play caller change. Dan Campbell took over from Anthony Lynn and the team started to target 3 wide receivers at a much higher rate while abanonding targeting Swift out of the backfield like Lynn obsessed over the first half of the season to open up the offense. 

4. With Swift likely to become a much more traditional runner in 2022 behind a strong offensive line, I believe the Lions will increase their pass rate and target more wide receivers as evidenced by signing Chark and drafting Williams 12th. 

5. The secondary remains a huge issue for the Lions and one they neglected in the offseason only adding Mike Hughes to the fold. While I am bullish overall on the offense, defensively this team has many issues heading into the season. 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-york-giants-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. I have made a number of bets on the Giants heading into 2022. They include, make the playoffs yes (+225), win the divison (+700), win 10+ games (+400) and Daboll COY (+1500). 

2. This is a team that is priced similarly to last year, but has an upgrade at GM, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator and Defensive Coordinator. 

3. Their strength of schedule shifts from second most difficult in 2021 to one of the ten easiest in 2022. Just those changes alone warrant a higher price point, but add in regression due to injury (QB, RB, and WR 1,2,3 missed a combined 30 games in 2021) and things point up for New York. 

4. The biggest shift will be the play calling and offensive structure from Daboll. During his time in Buffalo he prioritized aggression early, building a lead, hitting explosive plays, smart QB designed runs and red zone execution, where his teams ranked among the best in the league each season. In comparison, this Giants offense ranked worst. 

5. I think there is a lot of hidden talent on the Giants roster suppresed from years of poor coaching. I believe 2022 is the breakthrough while the rest of the division stays static or takes a step back. 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. The Steelers defense is going to be absolutely LOADED. Not a surprise to say that either. Highest paid defense in the league, holes were filled in the offseason and Flores, a brilliant defensive mind, was added. Potential to be the best defense in football. 

2. The Steelers offensive line is going to be absolutely HORRID. Not a surprise to say that either! Cheapest unit in the league, no holes were filled and likely to return four starters, but all of the returnees are among the worst at their position in 2021. 

3. The key thing to watch with Pittsburgh is the pass/run rate. Removing Roethlisberger from the team removes the lid on the offense. He was restricted and lacked arm strength. Does Canada trust Trubisky or Pickett to throw down field often? 

4. In my opinion, signs point to the Steelers RUNNING more and trusting Harris, while they figure out the situation at QB - if they ever do. While we may see more positive offensive scheme and tendencies (mainly play action), we likely see more run rate. 

5. Depending how low the pass rate drops, the Steelers pricing within the market is set to shift early in the season. More passing, more deep shots, totals and receiver props, way too short. More running, defenses sell out upfront and take advantage of the OL, Steelers become a dead under team.

Weeks 1, 2 and 3 will tell the story. Watch for it, and adjust. 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/carolina-panthers-season-betting-preview-2022

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1. I think the Panthers defense is over rated. Their success last season came in the first two months of the season where they feasted on backup quarterbacks and rookies. 

2. The five wins for Carolina in 2021 were all arguably a bit phoney. They beat Wilson in his first ever start, Mills in his first ever start, Jameis in his second start with New Orleans, Ryan the week after his leading WR abandoned the team and McCoy/Streveler combined for Arizona. 

3. If the defense is inflated relative to last season, they are in a tight spot overall as the schedule in 2022 gets a lot more difficult as the Panthers swing from a well below average strength of schedule to above league average. 

4. It is very likely Baker Mayfield starting as Ruhle coaches for his job this season, but where does the confidence come from under McAdoo at OC? This is going to be a run heavy team that will skew towards unders. 

5. Unfortunately, the market has already shifted. Carolina has one of the lowest win totals in the league and is a favorite in just two games all season. Tough team to peg or bet on or against heading into 2022. 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. The floor on the Jaguars in 2022 has been raised dramatically from 2021. The changes and roster creation in the offseason has compeltely changed the avergae outlook on this team...despite the market favoring them in just two games. 

2. The toxic environment, lack of leadership and botched play calling of the Urban Meyer regieme set Trevor Lawrence and this Jaguars team up to fail from the start. To make matters worse, the RB/WR room in 2021 was the third most injured. 

3. If we believe the Lawrence talent level is still the same as it was widely accepted to be coming out of college, the surrounding skill players, coaching change and offensive scheme adjustments should all benefit this team in a positive way. 

4. Some previews may look at the roster construction strategy as a negative, but there is precedent for success from spending for Pederson, who burned the entire Eagles cap in the offseason leading up to the 2017-18 Super Bowl victory. If we trust Pederson and his talent judgement, the additions are almost all positive across the board. 

5. The Jaguars in many ways are a play on or a buy team for me on a week to week basis in 2022. Better coaching, better skill position players, a QB in a much better spot to succeed and a much easier schedule of opponents on both sides of the ball. 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-york-jets-season-betting-preview-2022 

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 1.      Can 2021 be considered a throw away season? Rookie QB starting week 1, new coaching staff across the board and second most games lost to starters on injury?         2.      Wilson was horrendous, finishing worse than 32nd in five major passing categories, and how poor he played remains a big talking point among betting previews. But how much was situation based?         3.      Mike Lafleur is a SF/Shanahan coaching and passing game guy. His offenses are extremely structure based, where the QB is expected to work within the offense, and not out of it. Wilson had to become an entirely new QB, that went from relying on his athleticism, to relying on his reads and play knowledge, making quick, short throws.         4.      On quick (sub league avg release times), short throws 5+ yards downfield, Wilson actually led the league in accuracy, and ranked 14th or better in success rate, YPA and EPA/att. NYJ built around that this offseason, drafting Wilson, adding big targets in Conklin/Uzomah, and keeping Carter/Moore. A lot more efficiency and balls in playmakers hands coming in 2022.         5.      The Jets were last in every meaningful defensive metric last season, despite facing the 4th easiest schedule of opposing offenses. This season the schedule jumps up to average difficulty overall and above average for opposing QB’s. But these 2021 numbers are misleading and the schedule will be much more difficult than projected.         6.      Lamar, Burrow, Rodgers, Cousins, Allen x2 are all top 10 QB’s. But NE x2 and MIA x2 are much improved offenses compared to 2021 and JAX/DET are each expected to take offensive leaps too. Outside of PIT, CHI and SEA, there are no easy outs for this league worst defense a year ago relying on rookies for a boost.

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: Chicago Bears Odds, Picks & Betting Preview 2022 (covers.com)

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1. Chicago takes on new coaches and coordinators across the board with Eberflus (HC), Getsy (OC) and Williams (DC) set to bring impactful change to this team from a betting stand point. 

2. The part bettors should note most is the offensive coordinator role. Getsy comes from the McVay/Shanahan coaching tree, which utilize high run, play action and pre snap motion rates - all things that should help young quarterbacks.

3. The big issue is that the Bears did little to help Fields (second cheapest OL, third cheapest WR room) while on his rookie deal. Other teams in the league are finding success with rookie deal QB's adding expensive offensive pieces, this staff elected to build around Eberflus's preference, defense. 

4. The biggest free agency aquisitions as well as the top draft picks were all used to bolster the defense which should go from a traditional aggressive Bears defense, to a passive, conservative Eberflus defense. 

5. Reports from training camp suggest a Tennessee style offense, which has utilized one of the highest running rates in the league the past four seasons. It is a BIG difference between Henry and that OL to Montgomery and this OL. Fields likely put in bad situations with top reciever Robinson gone. 

There should be optimism for Fields, but instead there is a weak OL, a lack of weapons and a coaching staff that wants to run. His deep ball could be limited or neglected, and with how decent, yet, passive, this defense should be, everything about the Bears suggests they are a strong week to week under candidate entering 2022. 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/houston-texans-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. The Texans second highest paid skill position player in 2022 is a fullback. Not sure much more needs to be said about roster consruction. 

2. The optimism around Davis Mills for how he finished the season in 2021 is warranted, but the connection to Pep Hamilton and assumed success as Pep steps into the OC role may be a stretch too far. 

3. The accolades are there! Pep coached Andrew Luck in college, took the job with Indianapolis when Luck was drafted and got to the AFC Championship, then coached Justin Herbert in his breakout rookie campaign. 

4. But, I have bigger questions! If he was as great as listed, why was there a three year span recently out of the league? No NFL team wanted him. He ended up in the failed XFL experiment. For two decades he has been promoted, but ultimately fails. Is that going to be different under Lovie Smith? 

5. The Texans will play a west coast style offense that supports short passes, and with the lack of WR depth, deep downfield passes are unlikely to be the norm. So where does that leave sports bettors? The market has adjusted down for the Texans in every market, and they are listed as underdogs in every game. 

6. Value in backing Houston will be rare in 2022, as this team looks poised to have a peak of 5 wins. 

Preview Start: (0:50)

Jason Logan Seattle Atlanta Falcons: https://www.covers.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-season-betting-preview-2022 

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1. This team is going to be awful. They lost Matt Ryan who was extremely stable at QB, they lost Ridley, their top wide receiver to playing DraftKings, and their second best WR Gage, to Tom Brady. 2. They have a young coach and play caller in Arthur Smith who is extremely conservative and ran the ball on early downs at a very high rate last season. He also shows few tendencies to want to be innovative on offense. 3. It is likely they commit to Marcus Mariota and not rookie QB Desmond Ridder from the draft. 4. This means Smith likely increases his run rate with Mariota’s mobility, their best skill player (Patterson) working out of the backfield, and a poor pass blocking offensive line. 5. The defense, specifically the secondary, could be sneaky good and finish the season around 13-16th. No cornerback duo on a 2022 roster allowed fewer combined yards than AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward who start 1-2 for ATL this season. 6. The market knows this team is likely to be the worst in football. You won’t find much value betting any of the season long props under. The market has adjusted to their week one matchup against the Saints which has the lowest total on the board at 41. But, you might find is opportunity to bet the team under frequently week to week the rest of the season. The Falcons secondary could limit the speed at which opponents blow them out, if they happen to have a lead, Smith likely gets conservative and if playing from behind, it is tough to trust Mariota and the lack of skill players to come back.

Preview Start: 5:20

Jason Logan Seattle Seahawks Preview: Seattle Seahawks Odds, Picks & Betting Preview 2022 (covers.com)

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Is Drew Lock in 2022 on trajectory for Jameis Winston in 2019? Three seasons ago, Jameis Winston threw 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions enroute to the Buccaneers playing over their posted total in 12 of 16 games. The boom or bust play of Winston put points on the scoreboard - both ways - quickly, but he an Lock share similarities in their playing style. With an average posted total this season 10 points lower than the '19 Buccaneers, this could be intriguing for bettors. 

1. In his last full season of play, Drew Lock had the third highest intended air yards in the league, combined one of the highest aggressive throw percentages. He is not scared to throw the ball down field when trailing - and Seattle will be trailing, often. 

2. The only roster area Seattle ranks inside the top 7 as a consensus ranking is wide receiver. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dynamic downfield targets for Lock to throw at. The third option of Dee Eskridge with his speed is worth noting too. 

3. The Seattle defense is likely to be one of the worst 5-6 units in the entire league with weaknesses up front (bottom 2-3) and in the secondary (bottom 3-4). This is not a team built to shut down opposing offenses, especially on short fields. 

4. The combination of Lock's willingness to throw downfield to dynamic wide receivers and the defenses inability to get stops, should lead to lots of boom or bust throw attempts (explosive passes or INT's) which are condusive to points. 

5. Considering Seattle is priced in projections as a low 40's total team (41-43) these are not numbers that are set to sustain a lot of variance and due to how low they are, could make the Seahawks a sneaky over team in 2022.