The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion for September 7th, 2021. 

NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion for September 7th, 2021. 

NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion for September 7th, 2021. 

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the two top ranked teams entering the 2021 NFL season. Everything that both of these two teams do all season will be intertwined.

For the Bills, the biggest question is whether the 2020 season was the peak for Josh Allen? Is is possible we have seen his best year as a QB? With viable options at 3rd and 4th string WR, how much better will Brian Daboll be in 2021? After getting snubbed for HC jobs, will he push the early game and down passing further this season? 

The Chiefs are favored in all 16 games this season and have the highest win total - for good reason. In each year that Andy Reid has been head coach the team has exceeded its win total. With the best QB in the league behind a rebuilt offensive line, what is the ceiling for this offense? Spagnulo made a concerted effort to retain safeties and players in the secondary. Is KC a step further ahead than we think compared to other teams in the AFC? 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the second shortest priced team in the NFL heading into 2021. With a win total of 11.5 priced to the over, bookmakers and bettors are expecting Tampa Bay to be close to contending for a repeat. Last season Tampa Bay brought in a ton of new names and faces on both sides of the football in the most unusual and limited offseason. They made it work and got to the final. But what happened midseason to go from 7-5 into the bye to 8-0 to finish down the stretch? Are we forgetting how close this team was to losing in the post season multiple times? What should we expect in 2021? 

Bettors should be very optimistic about the 49ers entering the 2021 NFL season. Favored to win 13 games, bookmakers and the betting market are too. With a win total of 11, the 49ers have been upgraded significantly off their 6 win season in 2020. Despite having a roster loaded with skill position talent, the media is questioning the efficiency at the QB situation. Is Jimmy Garoppolo as bad as he is being made out to be, or is he the clear day one starter? Where does Trey Lance fit in? Lots to break down and think about in this episode today. 

The Baltimore Ravens enter the 2021 NFL season with a win total of 11 and are favorites in 14 games. The expectations and price point are as high as they come for Lamar Jackson entering his fourth season in the league. Have defenses figured out how to defend the unique offensive style of Greg Roman? Last season the Ravens feasted on weak offensive and defensive opponents but struggled with competition was most difficult. With the increase in schedule difficulty heading into 2021, are the new names added from the draft and offseason enough to offset the potential struggles? 

Previewing and ranking the Green Bay Packers tends to be a simple task. As long as they have Aaron Rodgers, this is a top ten team. The question each season is where they fit within those teams. After winning 13 games for the second consecutive seasons, it would be easy to stick them near the top, but there is reason to believe this team is not with the elites heading into 2021. Rodgers had a career year in 2020 (48 TD's, 71% completion rate, 121.5 passer rating) and the market never caught up to the Packers who went 11-7 ATS and covered the spread by an average of 3.4 points. There was a ton of under money expecting regression - but it never came. This season, much of that same sentiment returns. The quoted "F-You" tour Rodgers led throughout the league in 2020 is done, or at least exhausted into another season, and despite having the best QB, RB and WR in the league, things get considerably tougher in 2021. The Packers move from the 21st most difficult schedule of opposing defences in 2020 to the 3rd most difficult in 2021. For pass effeciency defense specifically, no team sees a more difficult increase this season vs last than the Packers. Key center Corey Linsley departed and David Bakhtiari's return is still in question after a season ending injury in 2020. The line up front looks different and much weaker than last season or prior. That is trouble looking at pass rushes of New Orleans, Washington, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore, Minnesota x2 and Chicago x2 on the schedule. Even if Rodgers duplicates his career year, it is incredibly difficult to find 12 or 13 wins against these opponents.

The Cleveland Browns enter the 2021 NFL season with a win total of 10.5. Expectations for high for Cleveland with all 11 offensive starters returning to the lineup from last season. Kevin Stefanski returns from coach of the year accolades in 2020 and hopes to lead Baker Mayfield to a repeat or improvement on his career season. As exciting as the Browns are, there are some concerns from bettors. Underlying metrics in one score games, field goal or less finishes, point differential and overall games missed to injury suggest regression in 2021. The schedule also gets more difficult for this offense. Will the Browns match the hype and contend with Buffalo, Baltimore and KC, or is this too much to handle? 

The New England Patriots enter the 2021 season with a win total of  9. In 2020 the team was struck with a number of late COVID opt-outs featuring five key starters in addition to losing Brady and skill players in the offseason. While many will view last year as a failure for Belichick, he was still able to win 7 games. If he and the team won 7 last season, bettors should be optimistic heading into 2021 with the opt-outs returning to the lineup and a free agency frenzy that built one of the more interesting rosters in the league.