The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

The betting market has the Arizona Cardinals priced as an average team in the league. Their preseason win total is 8.5 equally juiced on the over and under. The team has potential to have top 12 position units at quarterback, offensive line, receivers, front seven and play calling. But how much will the difficulties of playing in the NFC West hold back the Cardinals? Will losing more than 80% of snaps in the secondary from last season hurt them against a schedule loaded with elite quarterbacks and receivers? 

The Los Angeles Chargers have the highest win total of any team ranked so far. Is their price inflated too high due to huge seasons for both Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley? Will an offensive line with four new starters be the best Los Angeles has featured in a decade? How much of a step back with the defense take with multiple key starters departing? 

The Las Vegas Raiders enter 2021 with a conflicting win total. Pinnacle is showing o6 -197 while other books are either 7 shaded over or 7.5 shaded under. Favoured in just six games the Raiders have the most difficult opposing schedule of games based on win totals alone. However, as we dive into it today, the schedule is easier than it appears. Is the market missing something and over reacting to SOS metrics, or is the worry of being involved with the Raiders still the coaching staff? 

The Chicago Bears enter the 2021 season with a win total of 7.5 shaded to the under. The schedule for Chicago is BRUTAL. They face the second most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and fourth most difficult schedule of opposing defenses. Despite all the criticism Nagy takes, the Bears have won 12, 8 and 8 games under his management. Will the schedule difficulties and rookie QB lead Nagy to his worst season at the helm, or is there upside for Chicago this year? 

The Washington Football Team enters the 2021 season with a win total of 8.5 shaded to the over. The defense is going to be exceptional. The front seven is loaded with talent and the secondary was reenforced in the offseason to provide support. Media folks looking at the roster see a ton of talent, skill position names and athleticism...but is it possible the expectations on 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick are too high? What happens to this team relying on Fitzpatrick against a brutal schedule? 

The Denver Broncos enter 2021 with a win total of 8.5 shaded to the over. However, looking at coaching staff and quarterback combinations within the division, they appear to be the worst of the teams in the West. Who will win the battle between Bridgewater and Lock? Will a roster full of skill position talent be limited by whichever QB wins the battle? How much pressure will be put on an elite defensive unit to keep the team competitive within games? 

The Panthers enter 2021 as one of the more conflicting teams on the odds board. The win total has been painted on the screen at 7.5 with -110 listed on both the over and under for much of the pre season. Darnold is in, Bridgewater is out. The coaching staff gets their second season and there are skill position players all over the place to get creative with. The coaching staff gives them the bump above recent teams, but will they elevate the team to its highest potential? Can the Panthers win eight games facing such a brutal schedule?

The Eagles enter 2021 with a win total of 6.5 games heavily shaded to the over. They have the longest odds to win the NFC East after going through some serious roster turnover. Wentz, Pederson and numerous veterans from 2020 are gone, and in their place is a completely new coaching staff and second year starter Jalen Hurts. Can everything click for the Eagles, or is it another year of struggle? 

The Giants enter 2021 with a win total of 7.5 games heavily shaded to the under and 4/1 to win the NFC East. In year four of the rebuild project, all of the pieces are in place to exceed from a weak division. However, with the lack of support on the offensive line and depth in the front seven be the breaking point for the team? Is Daniel Jones who the organization thinks he is - and can there be a jump this season. A lot of promise at a lofty price. 

The Jaguars enter 2021 with a win total of 6.5 shaded to the under. Trevor Lawrence is in under centre with a ton of weapons around him. Is the new coaching staff ultimately going to hold things back, or will the offense be supported by a defense that just needs to win a way to be average to make the season successful?