The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2021 season with a win total of 9.5.  After getting off to a record setting pace in the first five games of 2020, the team lost Dak Prescott to injury. He enters 2021 with some uncertainty around his health, but bettors would be wise to ask if that record pace can continue this season. The team is loaded with weapons, but will consistently be in shootouts with a defense that allowed nearly 30 points a season ago doing little to improve. 

The Seattle Seahawks enter the 2021 NFL season with a win total of 9.5. In his career with Seattle, Russell Wilson has never won fewer than 9 games. On paper, the opponents he and the team will face this season project to be some of the most difficult. However, there is an underlying flaw in how the numbers are calculated which makes the schedule look much more difficult than it may turn out to be. Can new pieces in the offensive skill positions combined with Wilson's magic lead the team to yet another 9+ win season? 

The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2021 NFL season with a huge win total of 10.5. This is the highest win total team to be previewed this far. Matthew Stafford is a GIGANTIC upgrade from Jared Goff - there is no question about it. But Rams bettors (and fans) should be equally excited to have the uncertainty around what Sean McVay will do with him in the offense back for the first time since he took over in 2017. The concerns lie on the defense. The schedule goes from one of the easiest in 2020 to one of the most difficult in 2021, and key names that departed this offseason were not replaced. The Rams may turn into a much better over team in their new, fast stadium, than a side to back this season. 

The Tennessee Titans enter the 2021 NFL season with a win total of 9 heavily shaded to the over. This team has been able to get away with a lot on defense. For the last two years they have ranked among the five worst teams in the league for YPP and EPA, but got away with it due to facing some of the easiest schedules. There were no moves made in the offseason, and now the team faces one of the most difficult schedules. The offensive weapons remain loaded, and Tannehill is off a career season, but will the departure of Arthur Smith leave a huge void in play calling? 

The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2021 season with a ton of optimism. Home field advantage is back - to a team that relies on it more than any other. The skill positions are loaded with talent. The secondary is all a year older in Zimmer's system. Key defensive starters return in the front seven. Everything is in place. But is Kirk Cousins worthy of the contact he has been given? Despite terrific passing numbers, the big game performance has been lacking. Is this the year everything clicks, or will he ultimately hold this team back? 

The Indianapolis Colts enter the 2021 NFL season with more question marks than answers. Although key pieces remain in tact in the front seven and secondary, there are huge question marks on the offensive line and under centre. Is Carson Wentz really going to step back in to his old form under Frank Reich? Are last years numbers going to be ignored? How will the Colts fare losing their most trusted offensive linemen? Is the ground game good enough to hold them over until Wentz is healthy? 

The New Orleans Saints enter the 2021 season with the highest win total of any team previewed. For many bettors, the Saints are a playoff contender, so why are they so low down in my rankings? Although the defense is going to be loaded with talent, can Sean Payton get enough out of his offense that is void of weapons with a massive question mark at quarterback? There is good and bad to this team broken down in the preview. 

The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2021 NFL season on the radar of many professional bettors. When evaluating the Falcons 2020 campaign, their performance in point differential, pythagorean expectation, single score games and late game leads, there is no shortage of optimism for positive regression in 2021. But are season over season rankings enough to make up for a brand new coaching staff and loss of key weapons? 

The Steelers feasted on the easiest schedule in the league through Week 11 last season. Once the difficulty increased, the team crumbled. In the offseason, they had the remaining pieces of their offensive line depart, and Big Ben aged one more year. How much will the talent and athleticism outside be utilized if Ben does not have any protection and the Steelers can't run the ball? This defense will be elite and can keep them in a ton of games, but the win total of 8.5 seems like a stretch when looking at how difficult this schedule in 2021 is.

The Miami Dolphins enter 2021 with a win total of 9.5 heavily shaded to the under. After a 10 win season in 2020, expectations are high for the team led by Brian Flores. Once again they will have one of the best defenses on paper, but will the team be able to sustain turnovers and high leverage situations at the same success rate as a season ago when they led the league? Is Tua able to take the next step and lead this team to another double digit win season?