The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

With 90% of reporting now complete for the month of November, what do the latest delinquency numbers look like? In this week's episode, we dig into this month’s delinquency data, sagging occupancy rates, the urban exodus and its impact on multifamily, and options for distressed hoteliers. The team also shares what we’re thankful for this year.

Episode Notes:

Optimism going into the holidays (0:59)

November delinquency numbers (8:40)

Sagging occupancy rates (16:35)

The urban exodus and its impact on multifamily (20:41)

Options for distressed hoteliers (25:47)

Real estate tech titans (34:51)

Deal of the Week (37:24)

What are we thankful for? (44:04)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]

In a special episode, we welcome Adam Behlman, President of Real Estate Investing & Servicing at Starwood Property Trust, the largest commercial mortgage REIT in the US with a market cap of $5 billion. We discuss the volatility today compared to the Great Financial Crisis, the current mindset of borrowers, opportunity for the CMBS market, forbearance relief, and challenges in appraisals.

Episode Notes:

Comparing the Great Financial Crisis to the pandemic (5:39)

Starwood’s conduit lending business (10:44)

Opportunity for the CMBS market (15:09)

The current mindset of borrowers (18:48)

More forbearance relief coming? (22:04)

The migration to Florida (25:05)

Potential changes coming out of this crisis? (28:21)

Challenges in appraisals (34:12)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]

What’s next for the struggling hotel sector? In this week's episode, we analyze the flurry of bad news for hotels, which make up the third-largest property type by outstanding CMBS balance. We also discuss retail earnings, warehouse loan hedging 101, early indicators for bank failure risk, and what our Thanksgiving festivities will look like this year.

Episode Notes:

Retail earnings takeaways (1:05)

The lodging sector in dire straits (9:09)

Notable TreppWire headlines (19:52)

Deal of the Week (25:05)

Warehouse loan hedging 101 (31:31)

Indicators of bank failure risk (43:50)

Thanksgiving in 2020 (50:12)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]

A widely available vaccine will change the game for commercial real estate, which has of course been hit hard this year. In this week's episode, we offer performance predictions for each property type as the return to normalcy begins to come into focus.

Episode Notes:

Hotel performance in a post-vaccine world (1:00)

The shift in retail (11:02)

Office prices falling (14:38)

Is multifamily performance sustainable? (24:55)

Delinquency rate predictions (29:59)

Sternlicht’s comments on hotel and retail (37:37)

Deals of the Week (42:35)

Digging into the loan payoff report (48:40)

The good, the bad, and the ugly (52:55)

With the pressure of the flash recession and a new presidential agenda likely, we may see renewed emphasis on surveillance and risk management for larger financial institutions. In this week's episode, we break down potential regulatory changes, the history of risk retention rules, and measures on the ballot affecting CRE. We also dig into notable Q3 CRE data, the CMBS payoff report, bank failure risk, and the parallels between retail tenants and the legendary (and now defunct) American Basketball Association.

Episode Notes:

What’s behind the market rally? (51:25)

CRE regulatory measures on the ballot (7:44)

The CMBS delinquency rate continues to drop (10:08)

Notable Q3 CRE data (16:52)

The CMBS payoff report (24:40)

Risk retention 101 (29:16)

Deals of the Week (41:01)

Bank failure risk (44:13)

America runs on Dunkin (48:59)

The University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler private equity fund was the first student-run real estate fund whose mission was to invest outside capital in an educational setting to deliver real returns for investors. In a special episode, we welcome Dr. David Hartzell, Director of the Leonard Wood Center for Real Estate Studies at UNC, and Caroline O’Neill, full-time MBA student and manager of UNC’s fund. We discuss their CRE investment strategies, deal sourcing for the fund, shifting demographics and consumer tastes, pockets of opportunity, and how the pandemic has impacted the market. Listen here.

Episode Notes:

Online learning and the post-pandemic job market (2:13)

UNC’s student run private equity real estate fund (7:09)

Fund performance and deal sourcing (9:51)

Shifting consumer tastes and demographics (21:32)

Pockets of opportunity (27:31)

Comparing the pandemic to the Great Financial Crisis (34:21)

In this week's episode, we analyze the outlook for the distressed asset market, recent pricing levels, retail valuations, the concept of a “loss waiting to happen,” and the big CRE stories of the week. With Halloween right around the corner, we discuss haunted CRE properties in the New York City area.

Episode Notes:

When will the other shoe drop? (0:59)

Recent CMBS pricing (3:35)

Notable CRE stories this week (8:35)

A spike in rent concessions (10:49)

The outlook for the distressed debt market (15:49)

Deal of the Week (21:01)

Deal of the Weak and retail valuations (24:17)

The latest of returning to the office (28:53)

Breaking down a “loss waiting to happen” (34:55)

Haunted CMBS properties (40:18)

Our loyal listeners may recall that we recently discussed creating a list of CMBS loans for which the borrower has indicated a willingness to return the collateral to the lender. In this week's episode, we analyze the data behind borrowers looking to give back their keys, the preliminary October CMBS delinquency numbers, and noteworthy valuation cuts. In the last 6 months, corporate CLOs have arguably gone through a full credit cycle. Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance at Trepp, takes us through the various acts that we have witnessed.

Episode Notes:

The fragile and uneven recovery (1:05)

Preliminary October delinquency numbers (9:06)

New and noteworthy valuation cuts (14:23)

Borrowers giving back their keys in droves (21:48)

Hotel subscription models (26:35)

Deal of the Week (35:33)

A 6 month Corporate CLO credit cycle (37:37)

Holiday retail innovation (45:09)

In a special episode, we welcome Eric Thompson, Global Head of Structured Finance at Kroll Bond Rating Agency and Chair-Elect of the CRE Finance Council, to discuss the differences between this pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis, rating new CMBS deals, potential structural changes coming out of this crisis, and challenges that come with a high volume of forbearances.

Episode Notes:

Comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis (1:22)

Structural changes coming out of this recession? (3:40)

Rating new CMBS issuance during the pandemic (10:59)

Resilient property types (15:12)

The vibe in New York City (16:43)

Challenges with a high volume of forbearances (21:00)

The big bank Q3 earning reports this week show us that banks with a higher concentration in the capital markets may be weathering the storm better than their peers. In this week's episode, we break down bank earnings, retail property valuations, shadow delinquencies, hotel exposure by MSA, and the potential reduced demand for office space. The podcast team also shares their personal dress codes for remote work.

Episode Notes:

Consumer and investor sentiment (1:01)

Retail property valuations (4:29)

Shadow delinquency rates (24:22)

Hotel exposure by MSA (32:33)

A reduced demand for office space? (35:24)

UK market round-up (39:42)

Deal of the week (48:09)

Bank earnings in Q3 (51:15)

Our dress code for remote work (60:00)