This week, we're talking about good news once again.

On our last episode, we spoke with crime data analyst Jeff Asher about what it looks like murder might hit an all-time low this year. Now, we're talking with criminologist James Alan Fox about how we've yet to see a public mass shooting this year.

Fox, a Northeastern University professor who's studied mass killings for decades, said the tracker he runs for the Associated Press and USA Today hasn't found a single public mass shooting to date. He noted the decline actually dates back to last year, which saw an unusually small number of mass shootings as well. He argued the trend disproves the idea mass shootings constitute an "epidemic."

Fox said it's more reasonable to see mass shootings as rare events that have increased slowly over time, but not a lot more than population growth. He said the recent decline comes after a record high in 2023 and may be the result of the trend returning to its baseline. Still, he argued that the way many media outlets cover mass shootings, and the differing definitions they rely on, tend to mislead the public on their prevalence.

Special Guest: James Alan Fox.

Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I discuss the ins and outs of the silencer deregulation provisions included in the budget package just passed by the US House. We explain what they would mean for gun owners and what political hurdles still remain before they can become law. We also cover the Supreme Court's latest case decisions, including its recent rejection of a whole host of pending challenges to the federal gun ban for non-violent felons. Finally, we break down the DOJ's recent settlement over forced reset triggers and other gun stories from outside The Reload.

This week, we're talking about some good news. Some very good news, actually.

The murder rate, which has been on the decline for a couple of years now, is on pace to hit a record low. That's what the early data collected by Jeff Asher's AH Datalytics indicates. Asher joins the show to break down the numbers he's seeing so far.

He said the murder rate surged during the pandemic, but it has already fallen back to those levels and kept dropping further.

While the FBI's murder data for 2025 won't be out for nearly a year, Asher collects crime data from many of the same sources. He said his data shows a huge early decline in the murder rate that would equate to an all-time low if sustained. He cautioned that the decline is likely to slow as the year progresses, but it should still hit a record.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I unpack the latest in the growing political fight between gun-rights groups and the House GOP over how much National Firearms Act reform can be included in the President's "big beautiful bill" through budget reconciliation. We also cover recent rulings out of the federal courts, including an en banc Ninth Circuit decision upholding the government's ability to permanently disarm all non-violent felons and a Fourth Circuit ruling ruling the same for those with misdemeanor domestic violence convictions. Emily Stanley, aka Princess and the Pistol, also joins the show to discuss becoming a gun meme.

Special Guest: Emily Stanley.

This week, we're starting to see the effects of President Trump's tariffs on the ammo market.

To discuss the real-world pricing data we have Nathaniel Boos of Black Basin Outdoors on the show. Black Basin is an online ammo dealer, but it also publishes the most comprehensive pricing data on the internet. From that data Boos said we can already seen some signs of what's happening.

And the results are interesting.

For the most popular rounds, such as 9mm or 5.56 NATO, prices haven't moved very much overall. But under that steady stream are some fascinating undercurrents. As imports have become more expensive under the 10 percent tariff, American brands have largely chosen to reduce prices in an effort to retake marketshare--something that's evened pricing out in most sectors.

However, Boos said Black Basin has already seen some overseas suppliers simply stop shipping product into the US. He said part of the reason prices haven't shot up across the board yet is that the market has a glut of supply following the 2024 election. He warned prices could increase once supply dwindles and demand picks back up, likely in the Fall.

Boos argued the tariffs could end up limiting consumer options and pushing up prices over time, even eliminating supply of some less popular rounds. But in the short term, they've helped American ammo makers recapture market share while imposing little monetary pain on consumers--an outcome tariff supporters are aiming at.

Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I unpack federal lobbying data from the first quarter of 2025, which show that gun-rights groups have been far outspending gun-control advocates on the Hill. We also cover new monthly gun sales data showing a continued slump for the industry. Finally, we discuss a new gun industry liability shield signed into law in Tennessee before wrapping up with some stories from outside The Reload.

This week, we're taking a deep dive into the National Rifle Association's latest financial report.

That's why we have non-profit expert and Ohio State University accounting professor Brian Mittendorf back on the show. The NRA just had its annual meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, which I was able to attend and pick up copies of the group's latest annual report. That report shows the membership dues, legal spending, and even conflicts of interest at what remains by far the nation's largest gun group.

Professor Mittendorf said the numbers showed an organization that's still in decline, and still racked by legal costs. However, he also said the NRA's slide is slowing, and there are clear opportunities for them to stabilize or even rebound.

He noted that legal spending, while still sky-high compared to their pre-scandal days, is falling. In fact, the group's new CEO said legal fees had dropped dramatically from even the time the latest report covers. Mittendorf said that alone could free up tens of millions of dollars, without raising new funds, to put toward the core services the group has cut over the years--something that could pull members back in.

Special Guest: Brian Mittendorf.

Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I discuss a series of legal filings from the Department of Justice urging the Supreme Court not to hear a case on the federal gun ban for non-violent felons. We also look at a brief it filed on the other side of a gun rights issue, urging the Court to overturn a ruling upholding Hawaii's "sensitive places" restrictions on gun carry. Finally, I recap my time covering the NRA's annual meeting, where reformers made major gains at the highest levels of the organization.

This week, we're taking a look at a new approach to gun business investing.

Kareem Shaya and Chuck R. from Open Source Defense have launched a new venture capital firm focused on the gun industry. They joined the show to explain why they decided to take the traditionally tech-focused approach and apply it to self-defense companies.

The pair, who've worked at major tech companies and startups over the years, said they noticed a lack of interest in firearms firms over the years. They argued the sector is underdeveloped and ripe for new technological advancements.

That's why they believe there are real opportunities for investment despite the relatively small size of the gun industry and the headwinds gun businesses are currently facing going into 2025. They admitted they aren't positive if what they're doing will succeed, especially given the investment multiples they occasionally need to hit for the venture model to work. But they've already started to put their money where their mouth is with a few early investments.

Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I talk about the Supreme Court's decision to reject Minnesota's appeal of an Eighth Circuit decision striking down its age limit for carry permits, effectively clearing the way for young adults to carry guns in the state. We also talk about a new bill signed into law in Iowa this week that accomplishes the same thing for that state's residents. We then cover a new Fox poll showing more people disapprove of President Trump's handling of gun policy than approve in his first 100 days back in office. Finally, we wrap up with an update on my upcoming trip down to Atlanta to cover the NRA's annual meeting.