This Week In College Viability (TWICV)

This week's podcast starts with a WWII sampling bias story that strongly relates to college enrollment.  My thanks to Jon Boeckenstedt for making the connection.

+ Alverno College received and HLS financial probation letter and nobody knows it.

+ Wisconsin week:  UW Regents close college and lay off 32 tenured professors

+ Spinning Fall enrollment

+   Mark La Branche  IHE Survivability Is Not Sustainability

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

2024 Private & Public College Program Completion app (Both Bundled together)

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $200)

Students & Family version

Show notes:

Alverno College and HLC financial stress probation

In precedent-setting vote, UW Regents close college and lay off 32 tenured professors

MBU Welcomes Largest Number of New Students on Main Campus

Move-in day for new students exciting, emotional at Aurora University

QU stable heading into 2024-25 year 

McPherson College and Kansas Wesleyan University

UT Martin Seeks 10,000 Student Enrollment By 2030

Welcome Week at Adrian College spotlights 600 new students representing the Class of 2028

Survivability Is Not Sustainability 

If you think colleges are having troubles, here in St. Louis we can’t even get the city kids to school.  The great St. Louis bus catastrophe kicks off today.  My friend, Blythe Bernhard at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has done Pulitzer-worthy investigative stories on the colossal failure that is SLPS leadership.  It’s not the kids, not the families, not the employees – it’s the school board and its hired – and now ousted leaders.

Send your questions and comments to me at [email protected]

This week:  

+ Colleges Are Wed to the Status Quo – an interesting story from the James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal  

+  The Chicago Tribune (editorial) piles on to the WIU cutbacks and layoffs.

+  Wittenberg University is playing hide ‘n seek with information on its layoffs and cutbacks.
 +   Are we really on pace for 25% of colleges to close or consolidate?  Michael Horn thinks we are.

+ Low-end, local news media takes a small private college’s enrollment numbers without checking.  I even provided evidence the numbers weren’t correct. 

+  Are students bailing on privates to go to financially safer publics?  I have speculated on that.  I have some limited anecdotal evidence that might be the case.

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $200)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

2024 Private & Public College Program Completion app (Both Bundled together)

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $200)

Students & Family version

August 19th Show notes:

Ohio Northern makes job, programming cuts (private Christian college)

Colleges Are Wed to the Status Quo

Editorial: The crisis at Western Illinois University and beyond

Reaction to Wittenberg cuts mixed: Faculty frustrated, leaders look to long term

Will 25 Percent Of Colleges Consolidate? An Update On A Prediction

William Woods University welcomes its largest class of new students

 Colleges Are Wed to the Status Quo

University of Missouri students worry about overcrowding on campus as enrollment surges

Get the College Viability Student & Family updates here.

College classes are beginning to bring students to campus for the Fall 2024 term.  While the FAFSA Debacle is still out there, I am sensing some last-minute scrambling by both students and colleges to get the FAFSA app submitted and processed.

I am going to stick with my forecast of 2-3 colleges closings per week starting later this Fall.  The FAFSA Debacle is part of that, but the overall trend of cutback and layoffs really suggests the end is near for many more private colleges.

There will also be a tipping point sometime in the next few months – it may have already started happening.  Students and Families may have sensed the risks of smaller private colleges and are moving toward publics.  I haven’t really seen the data yet to confirm that, but it could start happening as colleges release their official Fall enrollment numbers in September.

This week’s headlines:

+ UW-Milwaukee Faculty Senate rebuffs plan to lay off branch campus professors

+ The A P is joining me and noting the cutbacks and layoffs trend.  I am pleased that many months into the process and my regular reporting on those layoffs and cutbacks that another major news organization is following my lead.

+ UArts is in danger of becoming a TWICV frequent flyer.  Details to follow.

 +Keystone College and Middles States are coming together to recreate the Keystone Cops.  This one earns a TWICV ‘Geesh.  Lots more on that.

+ Frequent TWICV flyer WIU lays of 35 and won’t say how many more will follow.

+ I have a story on a Lazy reporter from USA Today – sending students and parents on a data adventure few are prepared to do.

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $200)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

2024 Private & Public College Program Completion app (Both Bundled together)

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $200)

Students & Family version

Show Notes:

UW-Milwaukee Faculty Senate rebuffs plan to lay off branch campus professors

Colleges large and small in the U.S. are cutting programs and eliminating majors to make ends meet

UArts staff, students continue discussions on closure causes, ways forward, and the human toll: 4 takeaways from a city hearing

Keystone College meets Middle States' key deadline 

Students speak out about layoffs: ‘A loss for WIU’

Harrisburg University Abruptly Closes International Campuses

A college closes every week. How to know if yours is in danger of shutting down.

St. Ambrose University President Amy Novak and Mount Mercy University President Todd Olson join me to discuss the strategic combination of their two organizations. 

Summary

Dr. Amy Novak, president of St. Ambrose University, and Dr. Todd Olson, president of Mount Mercy University, discuss their strategic combination and the future of Iowa private colleges. They emphasize the need for innovation and bold change in higher education to address access, affordability, and the needs of their regions. They differentiate their strategic combination from a merger, highlighting the focus on creating something new and better. They also discuss the challenges of regulatory approvals and the impact of the FAFSA debacle. The combination aims to draw new students, drive net new revenue, and open new doors for students through expanded programs and opportunities.

keywords

strategic combination, Iowa private colleges, innovation, access, affordability, Catholic identity, regulatory approvals, FAFSA debacle, new students, net new revenue, expanded programs

takeaways

• Innovation and bold change are needed in higher education to address access, affordability, and regional needs.
• The strategic combination aims to create something new and better, rather than simply merging existing institutions.
• Regulatory approvals and the FAFSA debacle present challenges, but the focus remains on serving students and families.
• The combination will open new doors for students through expanded programs and opportunities.
• The goal is to drive net new revenue and ensure the long-term viability of the colleges.

titles

• Navigating Regulatory Approvals and the FAFSA Debacle
• Innovating for Access and Affordability in Iowa Private Colleges

Sound Bites

• "We have to do it differently than we're doing it right now."
• "We wanted to be bolder than that."
• "It's a combination to do something different and better."

Chapters

00:00
Introduction and Background

03:02
Innovation and Bold Change in Higher Education

07:33
Differentiating the Strategic Combination

09:35
Challenges and Opportunities

19:40
Looking Ahead and Ensuring Viability

25:12
Impact of the FAFSA Debacle

28:06
Expanding Programs and Opportunities

29:30
Benefits for Students

29:59
Conclusion

Here are the questions they discussed.

• Briefly share the history of what brought your to colleges together.

• You have been careful to categorize this as a strategic combination v. merger.  Why is that an important distinction for your organizations?

• Typically, students and faculty reaction to any type of business model change is not positive.  What has been the reaction at each of your colleges - both positive and negative?

• It looks like the HLC and other regulatory agencies will take up to two years to approve the business model change.  The higher education market will almost certainly undergo massive changes and even consolidation in that time frame.  Do you anticipate any issues with regulatory approvals?  The timeline for review and approval?

• Amy, in an IHE article you are quoted saying"  “Here at St. Ambrose, if we run the course as is, the 10-year projection gets kind of dire fairly quickly.   The IHE article also says:  what does it look like if we think radically differently about what Catholic higher education looks like in the future?”  Expand on what radically different might look like in a few years.

• In your quiet moments, few though they may be, what are the worst case and best case scenarios if the FAFSA Debacle leads to a rapid increase in college closures this Fall and next Spring?

• What will this arrangement change in terms of ability to draw new students and drive materially significant new net revenue?

The end of July and early August produced a really slow news week in higher education.  My google alerts on many higher education topics produced more alumni obituaries than anything else.

But then Forbes released their 2024 Financial Grades for Private Colleges over the weekend.  I will go into great detail about the article and its meaning for HE.

Get the College Viability Student & Family updates here.

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

Students & Family version

Show notes and links:

Valparaiso (IN) to eliminate over 2 dozen academic programs

Goddard College announces sale of campus to local nonprofit

‘A generational game-changer’: State (MA) funding free community college starting this fall

Forbes Financial Grades are out for 2024   (Behind a paywall.)

Here are the questions from my interview with Rebeka Mazzone, Founder and CEO of FutureEDFinance.

1. Tell us briefly about Futuredfinance.

2. Talk about finance as a lagging indicator of a college's financial health.

3. I spend a lot of time at institutions that have tried to solve this (operating deficit) problem with quick fixes. They tried short-term bumps in their spending rates, a one-time sale of property, seeking more donations, and making small staffing changes. More than two years later, most concede that they’re still running significant deficits, and their cash runway is getting shorter. 

   Question:   

4. Why do college turnaround plans take so long?

Students cannot be left hanging, need to sunset and notify accreditors or plans, shared governance requires faculty to be part of this decision and process.  Even eliminating faculty requires 1 year notice from time of contract renewal.  2 years before you start to see academic savings, 4 years to fully realize, all while fighting inflation.     

5. You have written about the 7 imperatives to be a finance strategist.  Share the top 2 or 3 for those college leaders who are watching some of their last dollars circle the financial drain.

6. You have written that "During a transformation, the easiest lever to pull for many organizations is to grow revenue. If you grow, you need more people. This is true in any business, but especially true in a service business like education where our people are our product."  

7. Is it realistic in today's overcrowded HE market to think that financially struggling colleges can drive materially significant new, net revenue from new programs or majors?  You and I have talked about the 'per FTE' or other ratios as being critical to measuring performance.  What is your experience with you clients and others using those types of ratios to help manage their business?

8. Elephant in the room question:  FAFSA Debacle's impact:   Best case scenario?    Worst case?

I think we are seeing a shift in consumer expectations around the value of a degree, so while some of this was an anomaly, I think we are seeing a reduction in population along with reduced demand which started with COVID and made the gap year more successful, that is now the 2-3 gap years.  How will we engage those prospects who are no longer traditional, but the are not adult learners either.  

The end of July is upon us.  The Olympics are all over the TV and news.  I understand there is a presidential election in about 100 days.  I just saw 5 Bucks and 3 does wandering through my typical American suburb street.

And none of this changes that fact that higher education in general and smaller, private colleges in particular, are headed toward the consequences of a diminishing demand and the FAFSA Debacle of 2024.

+ Frequent TWICV flyer WIU president confirms more layoffs, under $10 million left to balance budget

+ Faculty are really upset at Hampshire College

+ Sticker shock: A look at the complicated world of tuition pricing

+ Spinner of the Week:  MCC (Monroe Community College NY )continues work to ‘rightsize’ budget 

+ And much more

Get the College Viability Student & Family updates here.

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

Students & Family version

Show notes and links:

WIU president confirms more layoffs, under $10 million left to balance budget

UNC Board of Governors unanimously approves program cuts at UNC Asheville, UNC Greensboro

Monroe Community College (MCC) continues work to ‘rightsize’ budget

Facing $15 million deficit, UNO will cut positions, lay off staff and close buildings

Wittenberg (OH) weighs $7 million in cuts to address finances

Desperate Times, Unorthodox Measures

Sticker shock: A look at the complicated world of tuition pricing

Guest columnist Jennifer Bajorek: Hampshire College pay cuts, layoffs not so transparent

Here are the lead news and commentary stories for July 22, 2024

Get the College Viability Student & Family updates here.

Layoffs, cutbacks, closures & FAFSA check ins.  Folks it is going to be 10-11% decrease in enrollment.  Not everywhere, but it will be in colleges that cant’ afford to lose anything like that number of students.

+ HLGU (MO) has a dizzy spinning story that I will dissect with data.

+  Colleges are just link Kohl’s – the retail outlet

+ U of Memphis is confused about selectivity and enrollment.

+ Don’t tick off your nursing faculty.  President at Dickinson State U in ND did.  Listen to where he is now.

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

Students & Family version

Podcast Show Notes:

American University enrollment below target for fall semester

Hannibal-LaGrange University sees student growth, financial progress

Union files new charges of unfair labor practices against University of the Arts

Wisconsin Experts Convene to Address System Enrollment Woes

Goddard College campus up for sale again, after deal with previous buyer collapses

Compensation for top brass increased as Saint Rose faced closure

Why University of Memphis leaders believe undergraduate enrollment is declining at the school

A Plan to Save Small Colleges

After Sparking a Mass Resignation of Nursing Professors, This College President Resigned, Too

Coming Soon: Application and Guidance on Offering Reduced-Credit Bachelor’s Programs  

It was last Monday that Northwestern College (IL) (NOT University)announced its closure.  They announced it on Monday.  They had turned out the lights the previous Saturday.  So, let’s start this hot summer week in anticipation of the next college that will wreak havoc on its students, faculty, and community with another short-notice closure.

This week’s higher education news and commentary include:

1.      Layoffs and cutbacks.

2.      Another college in financial trouble is recruiting students from a closed college.

3.      An entire nursing faculty resigns

4.      Hampshire College continues to join the podcast.  I am ready to put them in the same frequent flier list as BSC, Webster, and Northland, 

5.      I have a college sports story that has implications for non-Power-4 colleges financial health.

6.      And the good folks at Northwestern College are charged with lying to their students about transfer options.

College Viability series of Apps

2024 Private College Viability app for Executive Analysis
 

2024 Private College Viability app for Faculty & Staff (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

2024 Private College Viability app for Students & Families

PUBLIC COLLEGE APPS
Executive Analysis version

Faculty & Staff version (Enterprise-wide license for $300)

Students & Family version

Podcast Show notes:
Western Illinois University lays off 36 employees

Number of faculty layoffs at Delta State still in flux   

Queens University of Charlotte says it will make cuts after missing enrollment goal 

All nursing faculty resign from Dickinson State University

‘A rat fleeing a sinking ship’: Students, staff, alumni react to Hampshire woes

Fitch:  “Tuition Growth Not Enough to Preserve Margins for U.S. Private Colleges”

With the future of college sports uncertain, one thing is clear: An official and permanent split of NCAA Division I is here

Which Private Colleges Always Lose Money?

U.S. Confidence in Higher Education Now Closely Divided

You just shut the door’: Northwestern College lied to students in closure message regarding transfer options

This special podcast episode of 'This Week in College Viability' continues our focus on the financial health of colleges.

My guest is Jeff Spear, CEO of CFO Colleague.

Here are two of the many strong observations from Jeff.

1.  "Too many colleges are like a speeding minivan with no driver, heading for a cliff, while the occupants argue over what DVD to watch.  Indeed, there are many who don’t have a workable plan to address the known external forces and the ignored internal ones that will lead to closure."

2.  The deadlines for annual statements are unacceptable in light of how difficult things are.  The federal government allows for a full nine months before annual financial statements are required.  Reporting that $10 million loss for FY 2023 could have been delayed to March 31, 2024.  Then, the department takes around three months to process these submissions.  Essentially, another fiscal year has ended before the full impact of a previous year is revealed.