It’s officially that time again: The spreadsheets are out and the ranking formulas are loaded. Chris Chavez and Preet Majithia have returned with the kind of number crunching that would make a tax accountant blush.

Yes — we’re talking about The Ten, and more broadly, the increasingly anxiety-inducing state of the 10,000 meters heading into the 2025 World Championships in Tokyo.

Because apparently World Athletics took one look at the event and said, ‘What if we made this harder, more confusing, and fully dependent on vibes, shoe tech, and whether your country’s federation knows how to read the rankings page?’

So here we are. The women’s standard dropped to a vicious 30:20.00. The men’s remains at a world-class 27:00.00. And unless you’re from Kenya or Ethiopia—or somehow running 10Ks on the road in super shoes fast enough to melt tarmac—you’re probably counting on the whims of the World Rankings gods to punch your ticket to Tokyo.

In the U.S., Weini Kelati is still the queen of consistency. Parker Valby and Karissa Schweizer skipped The Ten entirely. Elise Cranny has re-entered the picture and Jessica McClain quietly garnered some valuable points by PR’ing by half a minute.

On the men’s side, it’s a little simpler: Grant Fisher, Nico Young, Graham Blanks, and Woody Kincaid are qualified. All they have to do is battle at USAs.

There’s still time. A 10K at Mt. SAC is coming. Maybe Pre will host a last-minute 10K.  So let’s break down who’s up, who’s down, who’s close and who’s hoping UK Athletics doesn’t screw them over again.

Hosts: Chris Chavez | ⁠@chris_j_chavez on Instagram + Preet Majithia | @preetmajithia on Instagram

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