During the podcast, trader and editor of ‘The Morning Navigator,’ Tony Greer, shares his insights on the increasingly attractive commodities trade. Greer attributes this attractiveness to a combination of under-investment, regulatory changes, and a focus on rebuilding manufacturing and energy production. He highlights the significant performance of gold miners, up 141% year-to-date, and the broader commodities sector, which has seen a flywheel effect with various commodities taking off in sequence.

Greer discusses the potential for commodities to rally for three to four years, driven by the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion and the resulting inflation. He also touches on the potential rebalancing of passive funds into outperforming sectors like commodities and energy. Greer’s current positions include gold, gold miners, industrial miners, airlines, and Bitcoin, which he bought at $82K after a pullback.

The conversation also covers the potential for a bubble in AI and the shift in Bitcoin sentiment following a large sell-off by a whale. Greer shares his approach to risk management, using trailing stop losses to avoid holding losing positions. He also discusses his preference for focusing on a few trusted sources of information and his upcoming conference in Nashville.

Greer’s outlook for the next year includes higher commodity prices, potential volatility in Bitcoin, and a significant move in gold miners. He also touches on the potential for stablecoins to help maintain the dollar’s reserve currency status. The podcast concludes with Greer expressing his excitement for his upcoming conference and his appreciation for the host’s new role.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Commodities Breaking Out
00:11:15 – Passive Funds & Rebalancing
00:13:05 – Bitcoin Perspectives
00:18:13 – Determining Crowded Trades
00:20:40 – US Bond Markets
00:25:10 – Consolidation & Sentiment
00:26:24 – Risk Management & Stop Loss
00:30:09 – Wall Street Narratives Critique
00:35:00 – Best Information Sources
00:37:15 – 1-Year Market Outlook
00:41:00 – Conference Conclusion

Guest Links:
Conference: https://tgmacro.com/conference/
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
X: https://x.com/@TgMacro
Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCib_uMS-YG4sAQ1S655jBXQ

After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.